Mapping of the Impact Of Sea Level Rise On Arab States

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Presentation transcript:

Mapping of the Impact Of Sea Level Rise On Arab States Mohamed El Raey University of Alexandria Regional Center for Disaster Risk Reduction

Impacts of Sea level rise Impacts include: Direct inundation Salt water intrusion Soil Salinization Impacts of extreme events such as surges and flash floods Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

Vulnerability of the coastal zone Population and population density Land use Urban structures Industrial structures Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

Estimated Magnitudes of SLR Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

Population at Risk in the Arab world Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

Overall Vulnerable areas Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

World Bank comparison among potential impacts of Sea level rise on Arab States Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

Impact of storm surges Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

Egypt Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

Land subsidence Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

Satellite estimation of Land subsidence Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

Saudi Arabia Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

Yemen Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

Extensive urbanization in Emirates Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

3m SLR in Emirates (sea Level Explorer) Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

Percentage inundation in Emirates Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

Kingdom of Bahrain Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

Kuwait Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

3m SLR in Kuwait Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

1m sea level rise at Djibouti Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

Mediterranean Coast of Morocco Snousi et al,2008 Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

Eastern coast of Sudan on the Red Sea at I.0 m sea level rise Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

Qatar at 1m sea level rise Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

Southern Iraq at 3m Sea level rise Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

Iraq Kuwait Borders Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

Mauritania at 1m SLR Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

Libya at 1m Slr Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

Conclusions All Arab countries are highly vulnerable with varying magnitudes. Many such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Emirates, Tunisia and Morocco have realized the seriousness of these impacts to their economy and have started steps towards adaptation and risk reduction and many have just started. Excessive coastal urbanization, oil and groundwater extraction especially in high population densities areas and gulf countries, constitutes serious risk to coasts and coastal properties, especially in the absence of accurate data and information on coastal land subsidence No systematic observations on coastal land subsidence and changes especially of areas subject to excessive petroleum and gas extraction. There is a high shortage of human capacity in most countries Increasing severity and frequency of extreme events constitute a serious threat to the coastal and non-coastal communities due to increasing rates of droughts, flash floods and heat waves. Very limited institutional capacities for risk reduction already exist. The shortage of systematic observation systems, lack of awareness and weak enforcement of environmental regulations constitute basic obstacles for proper implementation of proactive planning for sustainable development Many decision makers take advantage of uncertainties of sea level rise not to take strategic decisions. However, it should be noted that all required decisions are needed whether we have a sea level rise or not. All countries should take action for adaptation the sooner the better. Prof El Raey 4/24/2017

Recommendations A Regional integrated center for climate change and risk assessment has been established (RCDRR) and needs to be supported for development of data base and systematic observations of the region. The center should be capable to provide data and information to researchers A data base of systematic observation of sea level parameters such as sea level, storm surges, water and soil salinity, coastal temperatures and phytoplankton, erosional pattern and coastal socioeconomic parameters, must be established Systematic observations of land subsidence has to be carried out by radar imagery interferometry in coastal areas of oil extraction to identify and assess rates of land subsidence and vulnerability to sea level rise Encouraging and supporting research and building capacities in the lines of systematic observations, time series analysis, modelling, water desalination and wastewater treatment , salt tolerant plants, extreme events and awareness programs for vulnerable communities Upgrading awareness and building national capacities Prof El Raey 4/24/2017