Global Climate Change and National Security RADM Jon White Oceanographer and Navigator of the Navy Director, Task Force Climate Change 31 January 2014

Climate Change Arctic 2

Our climate is changing … Our world is changing … Are we? Water People People Behavior

4 It’s not just the “Weather Geeks” talking What is the biggest long-term security threat in the Pacific region: “Climate change.” Navy Admiral Samuel J. Locklear III, in an interview at a Cambridge hotel Friday after he met with scholars at Harvard and Tufts universities “Significant upheaval related to the warming planet “is probably the most likely thing that is going to happen... that will cripple the security environment, probably more likely than the other scenarios we all often talk about.’’ “People are surprised sometimes,” he added, describing the reaction to his assessment. “You have the real potential here in the not-too-distant future of nations displaced by rising sea level. Certainly weather patterns are more severe than they have been in the past. ADM Sam Locklear, Commander, U.S. Pacific Command Mar 2013

Navy Sea Level Rise Concerns Challenges  Infrastructure  Mission capabilities  Training & testing lands  Transportation means/facilities Opportunities  Adaptation partnerships  Recapitalization incentive Directly impacts readiness, strategic access, & influence Physical Impacts  Inundation  Wetlands  Erosion patterns & rates  Surface/ground water supplies  Water tables  Tidal flows & currents  Storm & flood damage 5

6 The four P’s of Climate Change PredictPartner PublicizePrepare

7 Global Sea Level Rise Curves (IPCC 2001)

8 Source: Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment, NOAA (2012)Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment Global Sea Level Rise Curves (NOAA 2012)

Global Sea Level Rise Curves (IPCC 2013) 9

10 What if all the ice melted? National Geographic 2013

11 Instability and Conflict Risk?

Arctic Concerns 12