© T. M. Whitmore TODAY Population Geography of LA  Growth  Fertility  Mortality  Age structure Urbanization in LA  Spatial patterns  Causes & consequences

© T. M. Whitmore Population (2007 estimates) Latin America & Caribbean ~ 569 m (8.7% of global total) USA ~ 302 m (4.6 % of global total) World ~ 6,525 m Caribbean ~ 40 m Central America (with Mexico) ~ 148 m Mexico ~ m South America (with Brazil ~ 381 m) Brazil ~ 189 m Mexico + Brazil ~ m (> ½ of LA; ~ USA)

© T. M. Whitmore Demography: Growth related Rate of Natural Increase (RNI)  Meaning of “crude” in demography  Crude Birth Rate (CBR): live births/1000 pop in a given year  Crude Death Rate (CDR): deaths/1000 pop in a given year  CBR - CDR = RNI  typically given as %/yr  assumes no net migration in a given year

© T. M. Whitmore Rate of Natural Increase (RNI)/yr Latin America ~ 1.5%/yr USA ~ 0.6%/yr World ~ 1.2%/yr More Developed World ~ 0.1%/yr Lesser developed world ~ 1.5% - 1.8%/yr Historical trends in LA: 1950s s  Declining but less rapidly now

© T. M. Whitmore Population projections for 2025 Latin America 700 m USA 350 m World 7490 m Caribbean 48 m Mexico 129 m South America 465 m Brazil 229 m Mexico + Brazil 358 m (~ = USA)

© T. M. Whitmore Rate of Natural Increase II Caribbean ~ 1.1%/yr Central America (including Mexico) ~ 1.8% Mexico ~ 1.7 %/yr South America (including Brazil) ~ 1.5%/yr  Brazil ~ 1.4%/yr Notable extremes  HIGH (~ 2.5%/yr):  Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua,  Haiti  Bolivia  LOW (~ 1%/yr or less):  Costa Rica  Cuba, Puerto Rico  Uruguay, Chile, Argentina

© T. M. Whitmore Total Fertility Rate (TFR) = Average total number of births to a woman in her lifetime (superior to CBR) ~ 2.1 => parents only replacing themselves (called replacement level fertility)  need the extra 0.1 due to childhood deaths

© T. M. Whitmore Fertility (TFR) Latin America ~ 2.5 USA ~ 2.1 World ~ 2.7 More Developed World ~ 1.6 Lesser developed world ~ Caribbean ~ 2.5 Central America (including Mexico) ~ 2.7 Mexico ~ 2.4 South America (including Brazil) ~ 2.4 Brazil ~ 2.3

© T. M. Whitmore Fertility II Notable extremes  HIGH (TFR > 3)  Guatemala (> 4), Honduras, Nicaragua  Haiti (>4.5)  Bolivia, Ecuador  LOW (< 2.5)  Costa Rica, Mexico  Cuba, Puerto Rico  Uruguay, Brazil, Argentina

© T. M. Whitmore Death related (mortality) Mortality  Measured by “life expectancy at birth” (E o )life expectancy at birth  = AVERAGE projected span of life at the date for a pop Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)IMR  # deaths of infants (< 1yr)/1000 live births in a given yr

© T. M. Whitmore Life expectancy at birth (E o) Latin America ~ 73 yrs USA ~ 78 World ~ 68 More Developed World ~ 77 Lesser developed world ~ 64 – 66 Caribbean ~ 71 Central America (including Mexico) ~ 74 Mexico ~ 75 South America (including Brazil) ~ 72 Brazil ~ 72 Individual extremes

© T. M. Whitmore Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) Closely correlated with E o & very diagnostic of social underdevelopment and poverty Latin America ~ 24 (per 1000 live births -or 2.9%) USA ~ 6.5 World ~ 52 More Developed World ~ 6.0 Lesser developed world ~ 57 – 61 Caribbean ~ 38 Central America (including Mexico) ~ 23 Mexico ~ 21 South America (including Brazil) ~ 24 Brazil ~ 27 Individual extremes

© T. M. Whitmore Population age structure - youth Youthful pops: % of pop < 15 years old USA 20% World 28%  Lesser developed World 31% - 34%  More Developed World ~ 17% Latin America 30%  Central America with Mexico 33%  Caribbean 28%  South America 29% Latin American extremes & consequences

© T. M. Whitmore Population age structure - aged Aged pops: (> 65) USA 12% World 7%  Lesser developed World 5-6% Latin America 6%  Central America with Mexico 5%  Caribbean 8%  South America 6% Latin American extremes & consequences

© T. M. Whitmore Population age structures Population pyramidpyramid Concept of dependency ratio  (pop aged pop aged 65+) *100/ Pop age USA dependency ratio  100*(20% +12%)/68% = 47 Developing world dependency ratio  100*(34% + 5%)/61% = 64 Latin America dependency ratio  100*(30% + 6%)/64% = 56

© T. M. Whitmore

Geographic distribution of population High density zones High Low density zones Low  South America’s “empty heart”  Arid zones in N Mexico & Southern Cone

© T. M. Whitmore Urbanization Proportion of a country’s pop living in cities  World = 49%  Global South = 42-43%  Global North = 75%  USA = 79%  LA = 76% LA Extremes in LA Large city urbanization in LA (% in cities > 1 million)

© T. M. Whitmore Urbanization II Mega-cities  Emerging Megalopolis zones  Central Mexico Central Mexico  South Brazil triangle & Río de la Plata South Brazil triangle Concept of primacy  Single city in a country that dominates in pop, culture, economic development, etc.  Examples: Examples  Santo Domingo  Guatemala City  Mexico City  Lima

LA cities in World’s top 100 (19 of the top 100)

Lima 10 x larger >20 x larger >15 x larger

© T. M. Whitmore Roots of urban growth Demographic  R—to—Urban migration  Natural increase Economic  Industrialization  Rural stagnation Organizations  Banks and governments

© T. M. Whitmore Benefits from urban growth Efficient provision of social services Cities are centers of information flow and knowledge Concentrated (and better educated?) labor pool Physical infrastructure often better Cities concentrate “human capital” Cities are a huge internal markets Easier linkages between industries Cities are often “better off”

© T. M. Whitmore Urban growth I Housing  First destination of poor migrants is the inner city slums  Elite often still in posh neighborhoods in inner city Elite  Often close juxtaposition of rich and poorjuxtaposition

© T. M. Whitmore Elite housing, Santo Domingo

Mexico City country club

Mexican stock exchange

© T. M. Whitmore Wealthy homes in Morelia, Mexico

© Pearson Education – Prentice Hall Elite house Cuidad Juarez

© W.H. Freeman & Co.

© T. M. Whitmore Urban growth II Planned developments Self-help (often squatter) “slum” housing Self-help (often squatter) “slum” housing  Called: favelas (Brazil), colonias proletarias, cuidades perdidas, etc.  Seen as places of permanence  25-40% of total pop in some cities  Initially settlements lack infrastructure  A main characteristic is improvementimprovement New purchased housing

Planned new housing area in Mexico City

Nezahualcoyotl: Planned housing area in Mexico City

Nezahualcoyotl - 3 millon people

Squatter housing in Mexico City

Mexico City inner city

© Pearson Education – Prentice Hall Squatters outside Lima

© W.H. Freeman & Co.

© T. M. Whitmore Self-help housing, Santo Domingo, DR

© T. M. Whitmore Self-help housing, Santo Domingo

© T. M. Whitmore Self-help housing, Santo Domingo

© T. M. Whitmore Self-help housing, Santo Domingo

© T. M. Whitmore Self-help housing, Lima

© T. M. Whitmore Self-help housing, Saltillo, Mexico

Return migrant (remittance funded) housing in Ecuador © Brad Jokish

© T. M. Whitmore

Formal sector housing, Saltillo, Mexico

© T. M. Whitmore Formal sector housing, Tegucigalpa

© T. M. Whitmore Formal sector housing, Tegucigalpa

300+ low income homes in Ixtapaluca, Mexico - complex has more than 10,000!

© T. M. Whitmore Urban growth III Subsidy and Sink effects Congestion Pollution Loss of urban open space Poor provision of basic servicesservices Export of problems Poverty generally Employment not always good

Mexico City on a rare clear day

More typical Mexico City day

© T. M. Whitmore Urban water, Santo Domingo

© T. M. Whitmore Urban water, Santo Domingo

© T. M. Whitmore Subsidence in Mexico City

© T. M. Whitmore Subsidence in Mexico City