Bringing Science to the Art of Underwriting™ TM Welcome to Earthquake Country: Impact of future quakes Mary Lou Zoback, Ph.D. Vice President, Earthquake.

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Presentation transcript:

Bringing Science to the Art of Underwriting™ TM Welcome to Earthquake Country: Impact of future quakes Mary Lou Zoback, Ph.D. Vice President, Earthquake Risk Applications Risk Management Solutions Newark, CA Joint BARCfirst-BENS-BRMA Infrastructure Symposium June 25 th, 2009

CONFIDENTIAL © 2008 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM 1989 M6.9 Loma Prieta simulation – Brad Aagaard, USGS 2 Available at

CONFIDENTIAL © 2008 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM 1906 M7.9 simulation – Brad Aagaard, USGS 3 Available at

CONFIDENTIAL © 2008 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM FORECAST: Major earthquake likely in the next 30 years

CONFIDENTIAL © 2008 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Major Faults in the San Francisco Bay Area

CONFIDENTIAL © 2008 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM 6 Measuring plate motion directly with GPS

CONFIDENTIAL © 2008 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM 7

CONFIDENTIAL © 2008 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM

CONFIDENTIAL © 2008 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Mean Recurrence Past 12 quakes 165 ± 61 yrs Past 5 quakes 138 ± 58 yrs Past 9 quakes 151 ± 64 yrs

CONFIDENTIAL © 2008 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM 10 18, ( ) 70

CONFIDENTIAL © 2008 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM FORECAST: Major earthquake likely in the next 30 years

CONFIDENTIAL © 2008 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Past 5 quakes 1906 M7.9 simulation – Brad Aagaard, USGS Silicon Valley perspective 12 Available at

CONFIDENTIAL © 2008 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Simulation of the 1906 Earthquake (Shawn Larsen, Lawrence Livermore National Lab) Directivity = Energy focused in direction of fault rupture

CONFIDENTIAL © 2008 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM The Big OneThe Bad One (Shawn Larsen, Lawrence Livermore National Lab)

CONFIDENTIAL © 2008 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM 15 Vulnerable to floods California’s Levee Problem  strong shaking causes liquefaction and collapse  Bay salt water rushes in  shuts down drinking water for 2/3 Californians (20-30% S CA water supply) Torres et al. (2000) Sacramento

CONFIDENTIAL © 2008 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM WHO WILL PAY? 16

CONFIDENTIAL © 2008 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM 17 Hurricanes Past Quakes Quake Scenarios $0.0 Historic losses from public records, scenario losses from RMS RiskLink 9.0

CONFIDENTIAL © 2008 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM 18 Hurricanes Past Quakes Quake Scenarios $0.0 Historic losses from public records, scenario losses from RMS RiskLink 9.0