WP5 – topics to include in case study analysis for the scenario development  WP 5: Assessment of Transition Pathways to Regional Sustainability of Agriculture  Participatory scenario development exercise.  Identify pathways and visions, reflecting differentiation. Assess needs.  Develop Handbook.  2 case-study areas in each field research country.  Months 17 to 34.  Most teams have 7 man months for this. March 20123rd FarmPath meeting

WP5 – definition of terms Regional Sustainability of Agriculture What is the region ? Different definitions, one general understanding, the administrative region: NUTS 2 Can we focus on sub-regions ? Related with the initiatives, coherence in terms of land cover pattern, activities, institutions: a municipality, a group of municipalities, site Natura 2000, a label or brand area, etc >> we an call it REGION ? may correspond to a Landscape Character Area March rd FarmPath meeting

WP5 – definition of terms Regional Sustainability of Agriculture Do we need a lower scale – local landscape ? Yes, if we chose to proceed with visualisation *an area representative of the region and the issues addressed in the scenarios *particularly clear for the participants *well defined boundaries – a valley, an area around a village, along a waterstream March rd FarmPath meeting

WP5 – definition of terms Where will we develop the scenarios In two sub-regions More diversity covered Needs two sets of participants In one sub-region x two scenario areas More complementarity between the scenario work Needs one set of participants Consider two cases within the sub-region Assess scenarios for each of them and the complementarity at sub-regional level >>> selection according to representativeness of European diversity March rd FarmPath meeting

WP5 – identification of participants Includes NSPG but is broader people who we would like to get involved and with increased awareness for possible futures of the area >> need to give them something they do not have >> need to keep them interested March rd FarmPath meeting

WP5 – scenario development Ackowledge differentiation: What type of agriculture and agricultural area are we dealing with Sub-region: Characteristics Assets and constraints Selection of scenario areas and: Characteristics Assets and constraints Particularities within the sub-region >> according to a common framework March rd FarmPath meeting

WP5 – scenario development A common framework for differentiating our scenario areas: agriculture (intensity, area, economic role…) diversification (more activities, type of activities, deepening- regrounding-broadening) Ex.: extensive agriculture, and need for rural activities to support agriculture

WP5 – scenario development The main question: what is sustainabality of agriculture in this sub-region ? and in each scenario area ? Scenario narratives : what are possible futures for the scenario areas ? According to large drivers (CAP, food security, energy prices, global economic crisis): selected jointly 2 or 3 scenarios Short time horizon : 10 years March rd FarmPath meeting

WP5 – scenario development The main question: what is sustainabality of agriculture in this sub-region ? and in each scenario area ? Scenario narratives : what are possible futures for the scenario areas ? According to large drivers (CAP, food security, energy prices, global economic crisis): selected jointly 2 or 3 scenarios Short time horizon : 10 years March rd FarmPath meeting

WP5 – scenario development A set of common questions (emerging also from WP3 ?): What are main assets of the region for future sustainability ? What could be expectable scenarios (2, 3..) What is missing to secure sustainability ? What will attract young farmers /new entrants ? What are needs ? What is general x what is specific from this region ? What can be solved locally x what depends from other levels of governance handbook recommendations September 20112nd FarmPath meeting

WP5 – scenario development We need to know (to be considered in WP3 ?):  Case-study description: agriculture, activities, landscape and land use, population,... >> acknowledging differentiation /typology of rural areas  Mapping institutional arrangements  Assessing social capital  Rural development and policy integration  Territorial management and spatial planning  Assets September 20112nd FarmPath meeting

WP5 – scenario development We need to keep in mind  In order to keep participants engaged in the process until the end, they need to be interested and feel they receive something worthwhile: Careful selection of participants Identification of what are their expectations and needs (explicit or not) Awareness of what we can give them link to iniciatives ? (emerging from WP 3 and 4) September 20112nd FarmPath meeting

WP5 – scenario development The process – meetings: 1 year / 4 meetings: 1.framework, goals, past experiences, future storylines, sustainability issues 2.Return to storylines > scenarios, visualisation, confrontation 3. Different scenarios: sustainability and needs, what can be done locally what needs solutions higher up in system 4. Different pathways > different needs > handbook and recomendations 6 months / 2 meetings 1. framework, goals, past experiences, future storylines, sustainability issues > scenarios 2. Scenarios > visualisation > discussion. Needs, what can be done locally what needs other solutions, handbook + recomendations September 20112nd FarmPath meeting

WP5 – scenario development The expected outcome: Shared awareness of local specific assets Shared awareness of possible futures > locally Definition of expectable pathways and selection of sustainable ones Identification of needs for sustainability paths: local, regional and central level + specific for the region Engagement of the participants in decisions about pathways for agriculture sustainability Handbook + recommendations September 20112nd FarmPath meeting