Vulnerability indicators and their relation to the measure selection Natasha Marinova ClimWatAdapt Second stakeholders meetingmeeting 30 March 2011, Budapest Source FAO

DPSIR Framework

Water Scarcity – Water stress DriversPressuresStateImpacts Climate change T Precipitation (and propagation of its effects on hydrological cycle) Evapotraspiration Morphology Topology Soil water holding capacity Jobs Incomes Population GDP Technology dev. Markets (from SCENES) Structural changes Land use changes: Urbanization Resource use efficiency Management practices Quality and quantity of waste water

Droughts DriversPressuresStateImpacts Climate change T Precipitation (and propagation of its effects on hydrological cycle) Evapotraspiration Morphology Topology Soil water holding capacity Changes in return period of drought events Baseline: Minimum flow during a drought event with recurrence period of 50 years D50 base Future (2050): Minimum flow during a drought event with a recurrence period of 10 years D10 future Severe drought event if D10 future < D50 base Relative area affected by droughts People affected by drought Jobs Incomes Population GDP Technology dev. Markets (from SCENES) Structural changes Land use changes: Urbanization Resource use efficiency Management practices Not adjusted to the drought event water demand Quality and quantity of waste water

Population affected by droughts for EcF and SuE scenarios

Agreement of model runs projecting severe drought events Large areas in the Mediterranean Western and Eastern Europe with agreement of up to 100% Agreement of more than half of the models in parts of France, Ireland, UK Heterogeneous result in Central and Western Europe

Floods DriversPressuresStateImpacts Climate change T Precipitation (and propagation of its effects on hydrological cycle) Evapotraspiration Morphology Topology Soil water holding capacity Changes in magnitude of 1-in-100 y flood event Area affected by floods People affected by floods Jobs Incomes Population GDP Technology dev. Markets (from SCENES) L and use changes – urbanization, deforestation, development in flood prone zone, control of rivers Level of protection (design return level) River bed sedimentation Loss of wetlands and riparian zones Soil sealing Not properly planned drainage

Relative area affected by floods Based on the ensemble median More than 80% in part of the UK and the Netherlands ~ 20% in southern Norway, parts of France, and the Alps

People affected by floods

Agreement of model runs projecting severe flood events Agreement of more than half of the models in parts of western France, the Netherlands, Eastern Europe and parts of UK, Spain, Italy, Norway, Sweden Low flood risk around the Baltic see

Sea Level Rise

People affected by SLR, 2080 Source PESETA, Coastal Report

Thank you!