Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) Overview NOAA Hurricane Conference Ed Rappaport for Fred Toepfer and Bob Gall December 1, 2009

2 HFIP Origin and Leadership Established by the NOAA Executive Council May 10, 2007 Executive Oversight Board Dr. John L. Hayes, NWS Director (co-chair) Dr. Richard Spinrad, AA for Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (co-chair) Project Manager: Fred Toepfer, NWS OST HFIP Technical Manager: Robert Gall, UCAR Research Lead: Frank Marks, OAR, AOML, HRD Operations Lead: Ed Rappaport, NWS, NCEP, NHC

3 HFIP Goals Significantly improve guidance to NHC for hurricane track and intensity forecasts. (WFOs to benefit directly from better operational model guidance and indirectly through better NHC forecasts and products.) Unify NOAA’s hurricane research effort Provide the basis for NOAA co-leading with the National Science Foundation, Navy and others a national effort to: –Define and coordinate a national hurricane research agenda –Apply new science and technology to the hurricane forecast warning and forecast problem through a National Hurricane Forecast System (NHFS)

4 HFIP Metrics HFIP metrics for Atlantic guidance include: Reduce average track errors by 50% for Days 1 through 5. Reduce average intensity errors by 50% for Days 1 through 5. Increase the probability of detection (POD) for rapid intensity change to 90% at Day 1 decreasing linearly to 60% at Day 5, and decrease the false alarm ratio (FAR) for rapid intensity change to 10% for Day 1 increasing linearly to 30% at Day 5. Extend the lead time for hurricane forecasts out to Day 7 [with accuracy of Day 5 forecasts in 2003].

Track Goals

Track Goals 50% reduction in error 50% reduced forecast errors 50% reduced forecast errors

Track Goals 7-day forecast with 50% reduction in error S D 8 PM Sat 8 PM Sun

Intensity Goals

9 Rapid Intensification Goals HFIP “stretch” goals for model guidance for rapid intensification NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)

10 HFIP Science Approach The scope of the HFIP encompasses research and development: Of advanced high-resolution numerical prediction and ensemble predictions systems for hurricane forecast guidance Of advanced high-resolution numerical prediction and ensemble predictions systems for hurricane forecast guidance, To improve understanding, emphasis on the phenomena related to predictability of rapid intensity (RI) change and secondary eyewall phenomena, To improve observations and observational strategies for the hurricane and its environment, Of novel methods for data assimilation, to assimilate the diverse range of existing and new observations, and To accelerate the transfer of research results into operational forecasting.

11 HFIP will continue to emphasize a two-track approach… 1)“Stream 1”: Operational Model Suite enhancements (EMC Managed Testing & Implementation): –Relies on existing and traditional growth of computing resources. –Development is focused on HWRF. HFIP will focus on alternatives to improve HWRF prediction (initial conditions & physics). 2.“Stream 2”: Advanced Model Demonstration Project: –Primary Purpose: To prove that the high performance computing (HPC) resources will lead to improved guidance accuracy. This will hopefully lead to increased operational resources. –Need to continue to seek computer resources outside of NOAA. HFIP FY10 Strategy

12 HFIP Teams FY2010 TeamsComprised of Personnel from the Following Organizations (bold indicates Organization of Team Lead/Co-Lead): 1. Global Model/Physics Development Team ESRL, AOML, NRL, GFDL, EMC, NRL 2. Regional Model/Physics Development Team GFDL, EMC, AOML, NRL, ESRL URI, Old Dominion Univ, NESL 3. Ensemble Development TeamESRL, NRL, HRD, PSU, EMC, NHC, FSU 4. Data Assimilation/Vortex Initialization Team EMC, ESRL, NRL, AOML, CIRA, PSU 5. Verification TeamGFDL, RAL, NRL, NESDIS/STAR, AOML, NHC, EMC, ESRL 6. Applications Development and Diagnostics Team NHC, NESDIS/STAR, EMC, NRL, HRD, RAL, ESRL, Old Dominion Univ, AOML, FSU 7. Hurricane Observations TeamAOML, RSMAS, NHC, EMC, NESDIS/STAR, ESRL, URI, NRL, AOC, RAL 8. Ocean/Wave Model TeamEMC, AOML, URI, ESRL, NRL, RSMAS...to establish and attend to annual priorities, deliverables and milestones …FY10 process underway

13 HFIP Budget FY 2009 New Money HWRF/SLOSH O&M $1M NHFS Transition $3M NHFS Development $17M –Development $11M –HPC $6M FY 2010 New Money HWRF/SLOSH O&M $1M NHFS Transition $3M NHFS Development –Development $10M –HPC $3M Executive Office of President, Statement of Administration Policy, Oct 5, 2009: “However, within this funding level, the administration urges the Congress to provide the additional $13 million requested to support accelerated improvement of hurricane track and intensity forecasts, which will help to prevent unnecessary and costly evacuations.”

14 Planned FY10 HFIP HPC Resources SystemPlanned Usage TACC*: ~4M processor hours left to use for CY Proposal Submitted for 20M Processor Hours for CY High-Resolution Global Models and Global Dual-Model Ensembles; Data Assimilation (EnKF); Regional Ensembles (PSU ARW); Testing and Evaluation Boulder: ~3000 processors dedicated 24/7 to HFIP. High-Resolution Deterministic Regional Models, High Resolution Nested Deterministic Models, Testing and Evaluation. DOE: 20M processor hours for CY 2010 High-Resolution Global Models; High-Resolution Two-Way Nested Global Models. Gaithersburg: ~ 160 processors dedicated 24/7 to HFIP. Final Implementation Testing of HWRF/Testing of HWRF 4 km *Texas Advanced Computing Center

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