China’s Rise and Cyberspace: Strategic Challenges for the U.S. James Mulvenon, Ph.D. 10 September 2009

Outline US-PRC strategic cyber dilemmas Beijing’s strategic perspective on cyberspace China and cyber as a tool of state power Chinese military views of computer network operations US, China, and cyberspace: the long-term view

US-PRC Strategic Cyber Dilemmas China: cyber threat, world’s IT workshop, or both? US-China cyber dilemma as microcosm of larger US- China strategic relationship US-China vs. US-USSR Bilateral relations = difficult tradeoffs

Beijing’s and Cyberspace: Contradictions, Anyone? Chinese philosophy and Hegelian/Marxist “science” centers on contradictions and their resolution China’s great information security “balancing act” –Desire: Access to global technology R&D and production –Desire: Connection to global information grid –Fear: Use of ICTs to undermine Beijing government Myths about the Internet and authoritarian regimes –How has China beaten the odds?

China and Cyber as a Tool of State Power China and Russia: cyber is a legitimate element of state power –Examples: patriotic hackers, Estonia, Georgia –More comfortable than US in overt use –Publicity and public opprobrium have had no effect Uses of cyber –Cyber/technology espionage –Intelligence preparation of the battlefield –Psyops, influence operations, denial and deception

Chinese Military Views on Computer Network Operations Why the PLA is attracted to CNO –Range and targets –US dependencies and vulnerabilities How would the PLA use CNO –CNO and the Taiwan scenario centers of gravity –Connection to the “intrusion set” Assessing PLA cyber capabilities Implications of PLA CNO for US defense –Attribution challenges –Deterrence challenges

US, China, and Cyberspace: The Long-Term View Short-term: cyber espionage Short-medium term: CNO and the Taiwan scenario Long-term –Supply chain –CFIUS –Infrastructure –Internet governance –IT standards