Social science for the Integrated Assessment of environmental risks and problems. DAY 3: Managing social-ecological systems and scarce resources. Dr. J. David Tàbara Institute of Environmental Science and Technology Autonomous University of Barcelona

Method: Using metaphors to think about environmental issues

Metaphor 1 Imagine an open field with pastures where every shepard can bring in at any time as many sheep as they wish to feed. In principle, every shepard tries to maximize its individual benefit by bringing in as many sheep as possible. So far, this has not been a problem because there were only few shepards around, but… 1.What will happen if the number of people bringing their sheep increases? 2.What should we do? And when? 3.And most importantly HOW? by which process?

Growth and interaction in simple societies Growth without substantial increased agent differentiation and transformation. Agents reproduce the social- ecological patterns without much social learning system reconfiguration. The system may become congested.

Growth and interaction in complex societies Increased system and agent differentiation, interaction and transformation. The new social-ecological agent patterns, shapes and reconfigurations (may) appear as result of social learning. The system may be potentially more adaptive to perturbations or even prevent certain risks steaming from congestion.

Possible trajectories of social – ecological systems growth Complexity System growth TATA TBTB ( Potentially more vulnerable to a possible equal perturbation and less transition oriented ) ( Potentially less vulnerable to a possible equal perturbation and more transition oriented ) Tàbara, D. & Ilhan A ‘Culture As Trigger For Sustainability Transition in the Water Domain. The case of the Spanish water policy and the Ebro river basin’. Regional Environmental Change. Vol 8(2):

Systems risks and problems: Archetypes of policy responses Transform the environment! Transform the agents! Rise the dikes (eliminate or protect from threat) Plant more trees (restore) Extract and accumulate more resources (secure supply) Develop more technological fixes. … Change patterns of behaviour and set clear responsibilities. Promote social and individual learning. Modify institutions, reframe beliefs and set limits to consumption and growth. ‘Learn what not to do and to coevolve’. … MAIN QUESTION: What is the problem? MAIN QUESTION: Who is the problem?

MODELLING SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS. Hierarchies, adaptive cycles and panarchy.

MODELS OF INSTITUTIONAL DESIGNS IN ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY THEORY