Will cattle ranching continue to drive deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon? Paulo Barreto Senior Researcher at IMAZON.

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Presentation transcript:

Will cattle ranching continue to drive deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon? Paulo Barreto Senior Researcher at IMAZON

15% deforested up to 2009

Pastureland ocupies 75% of the area deforested

Will cattle ranching continue to drive deforestation? Predominant trends Critical uncertainties ????? Scenarios

What has driven deforestation?

Policies to occupy the Amazon Infrastructure Colonization projects Subsidized rural credit Tax breaks

Demand for agricultural commodities stimulated deforestation

What has made Brazil more effective against deforestation?

Reduction of leniency with crimes < 5% of the value of fines collected

Drought in Amazon ,000 people affected

EE ~40% of Brazilian Emissions of Greenhouse gases Less than 1% of GDP

Market risk 2006 – soy moratorium Biofuels and indirect deforestation

New measures against deforestation in 2008 Illegal operations Credit restriction Embargo of areas illegally deforested Buyers of products from embargoed areas liable to penalties Increased confiscation

Confiscation of 3,000 cattle inside protected area June 2008 Auctioned after two months

Deforestation declined despite the increase of soy and cattle prices

Will cattle ranching continue to drive deforestation? Predominant trends Growing demand for food Demand for environmental protection Socioeconomic impacts of the application of environmental laws Pressure for economic growth. Critical uncertainties Reduction of legal forest protection? Support for the implementation of laws? Size of the clandestine beef market? Scenarios Low deforestation Medium deforestation High deforestation

Low deforestation scenario Low deforestation No reduction of legal protection Enforcement of environmental laws Support for the implementation of law Beef industry demanding deforestation-free cattle Ranchers organize to overcome barriers to the implementation of the law.

Medium deforestation scenario Medium deforestation. No significant reduction of legal protection Enforcement of environmental laws No support for the implementation of law Beef industry buys from legal deforestation. Clandestine industry buys from ilegal deforestation. Small landholders free to deforest illegally.

High deforestation scenario High deforestation. Reduction of legal protection Enforcement of environmental laws No support for the implementation of law Beef industry buys from legal deforestation. Clandestine industry buys from ilegal deforestation. Small landholders free to deforest illegally.

Low deforestation scenario Low deforestation No reduction of legal protection. Enforcement of environmental laws Support for the implementation of law Beef industry demanding deforestation-free cattle Ranchers organize to overcome barriers to the implementation of the law. REDD