Operationalising an indicator system Demography Peter Schmitt – Alexandre Dubois Nordregio VASAB WG1 meeting 25th June, 2007 Riga

1) ”general” demographic trends 2) migration 3) future demographic trends (”forecasts”) Demography - ”desired” data sets

-overall evolution, fertility/mortality rates -age groups (in 5-years intervalls, 0-4, 5-9 etc.) -geographic level: NUTS 5 (!) -time span 1995 – latest available -some data are available at Nordregio (  , cf. Hanell/Neubauer 2005) -CSD will be asked if an update of such data is desired or if the existing studies should be used 1) ”general” demographic trends

- here calculation of the migratory balance (  total population change minus natural population change) -identifying the winners/losers (at NUTS 3 if possible) -But: we need additional qualitative information to safeguard the findings:  What’s about international migration (origins/destinations specifically within the BSR/EU) - National experts are asked to draft a synthesis report on the national and international migration patterns and their impact on regional development in their countries 2) migration

Source: ESPON 114, MAP 3.12, p. 105

Very complicated issue – what is the (political) focus here? -Possibility 1: “demographic evolution and replacement migration”  depopulation/ageing (done within ESPON 114  two variants: with and without migration, also at NUTS 2)  Russia/Belarus: Experts should consider if they could provide us with some insights according to ESPON 114, Annex, B, chapter 5; to be found at: full.pdf -Possibility 2: a rough overview that leads to a qualitative assessment of forecasted trends at hand in the different countries related to some key questions (Nordregio will come up by mid-August. with a proposal what kind of key questions could be tackled here). In the meantime the national experts are asked to check/assess what kind of forecasts are available at the national or even regional level). -Possibility 3: (bases on no. 2): writing narratives on scenarios building: ”What if…?” (see ESPON 3.4, Vol. 3, pp for inspiration) (will be considered again at a later stage of the project) 3) future demographic trends (”forecasts”)