CPC Role in the Regional Climate Services Partnership Dr. Wayne Higgins, Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP February, 2011

Issue: Demand for regional climate information is increasing and exceeds NOAAs capacity to meet it. Challenge: How can we work together to make the Climate Service “ whole greater than the sum of the parts” to help meet demand? CPC Role: Delivers operational climate products and services Links weather and climate Develops prediction techniques for regional climate information Needs Assessments (CFS; extremes) to link user needs to capabilities Background

–CPC Within NCEP –Ongoing CPC Activities –Climate Modeling and Prediction Advances –CPC Forecast Operations –NCEP Contributions to NOAA Climate Services Outline

CPC within NCEP

CPC Mission National temperature and precipitation outlooks, but not monthly / seasonal rankingsNational temperature and precipitation outlooks, but not monthly / seasonal rankings Focus: weeks, months, seasons, years (i.e. short term climate)Focus: weeks, months, seasons, years (i.e. short term climate) Forecasts in collaboration with other NCEP Centers, NOAA line offices, other agencies and labsForecasts in collaboration with other NCEP Centers, NOAA line offices, other agencies and labs Integral to NWS Seamless Suite of ProductsIntegral to NWS Seamless Suite of Products We deliver climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment products for timescales from weeks to years to the Nation and the global community for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the economy. Temperature Outlook

6 Climate/Weather Linkage Week 2 Hazards Assessment ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather CPC Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits TPCOPC HPC SWPCAWCSPC Service Center Perspective Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3 Tropical Storms to Day 5 Severe Weather to Day 8 Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 : NDFD, Days Day Forecast MaritimeMaritime Life & Property Space Operations RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem EnvironmentEnvironment Emergency Mgmt AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning CommerceCommerce HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth AviationAviation Seasonal Predictions

7 Research, Development and Technology Infusion Respond & Feedback The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD Distribute Observe Products & Forecast Services To Serve Diverse Customer Base e.g., Energy Officials, DHS/FEMA, Emergency Managers, Water Resource Planning, Transportation, Health organizations (CDC…) NCEP Feedback - Process - Assimilate - Predict - Process - Assimilate - Predict Prediction is now inherently linked to numerical models Central Guidance Central Guidance Local Offices Local Offices

Ongoing CPC Activities

Climate Prediction Products Focus on week-2 to seasonal-to-interannual 6-10 Day & 8-14 Day Precipitation & Temperature Outlooks Day 3-14 Hazards Assessments (US, Global Tropics) Monthly & Seasonal Precipitation & Temperature Outlooks Seasonal Drought Outlook Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks (Atlantic and Eastern Pacific) Monthly ENSO Prediction * Dynamical Models Climate Forecast System Global Forecast System ECMWF Tools used to develop prediction products Dynamical Models Statistical Models Historical Analogs Historical Composites

Outlook Verification CPC provides real-time gridded verification of its official outlooks - downloadable archive - observations - performance metrics NOAA/Climate Prediction Center

Climate Monitoring Products Daily and monthly data, time series, and maps for various climate parameters and compilation of data on historical and current atmospheric and oceanic conditions –Primary modes of climate variability (ENSO, MJO, NAO, PNA, AO,...) –Atmospheric Circulation (global troposphere and stratosphere) –Storm Tracks and Blocking –Monsoons –Oceanic Conditions (global and coastal) –Precipitation and Surface Temperature (global and US) –Drought (US, North America; NIDIS)

Monitor: Atmospheric, oceanic & land surface conditions across time scales Assess : Hazards (droughts and floods) Seasonal Intensity Variability (linkages to ENSO, MJO, etc) Predict : Week-1, week-2, monthly and seasonal rainfall Lifecycle: onset, maintenance and demise Monsoon indices Monitoring & Prediction of Monsoon Systems Worldwide

Climate Assessment Products Synthesis of current weather and climate information and forecasts; issued on a routine basis –Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (monthly, web) –ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (monthly, PDF and WORD) –Weekly ENSO / MJO / Monsoon / Ocean updates (.ppt, PDF, web) –Seasonal Climate Summaries (web) –Special Climate Assessments (extreme events, web) –Annual Climate Assessment (multi-agency; published in the AMS Bulletin) –Hazards Assessments (US, Africa, & Global Tropics) Day 3-14 – WX/CX Connection

Selected Other Climate Services at CPC Joint Agriculture Weather Facility USDA – DOC partnership –Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin –Briefings & Weather Summaries on global weather and crop conditions CPC International Desks Professional development training to African Meteorologists WMO partnership for regional and global activities Lead Famine Early Warning System Hazard/Benefit Assessments: Africa, Central America, Afghanistan Indian Ocean tropical cyclone monitoring International Monsoon Forecaster Training Training Coverage in Africa

15 Applied Climate Research (Science and Service Integration) Forecast tool development / improvementClimate monitoring tool development / improvementClimate model diagnostics and evaluationUnderstanding atmospheric and oceanic predictabilityUnderstanding climate trendsWeather / climate linksAttribution of climate anomaliesDrought / floods and other extreme eventsStatistical / Dynamical Downscaling  Regional Climate Information

16 Linking Weather and Climate Extreme Events Tropical Storms Droughts/Floods Change in weather event amplitude and frequency Global change Trends Change in climate event amplitude and frequency Tropics - El Niño, La Niña Extratropics - Jet Patterns Blocking Teleconnections Climate Change Weather Climate Variability Climate Variability Motivation: Climate Change is manifested as changes in the number and intensity of weather extremes that have significant human impacts, thus posing a serious challenge to society. How do climate variations and climate change affect weather events and vice-versa?

Climate Modeling and Prediction Advances

Climate Modeling and Prediction Advances at NCEP Climate Forecast System - NOAA’s first dynamic, fully-coupled operational climate forecast model  Version 1 operational since Aug 2004  Version 2 operational in Mar 2011  CFSv2 Reanalysis & Reforecasts (1979-present) Climate Test Bed – Accelerate the transition of Research to Operations (R2O)  CFSv3 improvements  Multi Model Ensemble Prediction Systems  Linking SI & Decadal Modeling & Prediction  CPC-CTB-RISA Program; Regional Climate Information Model Test Facility - Provide CFS and related datasets to community (O2R) CFS (v1) Implemented Climate Test Bed spin up

19 AttributeCFSv1 (Operational )CFSv2 (Upgrade) Analysis Resolution200 km38 km Atmosphere model1995: 200 km/28 levels Humidity based clouds 100 km/64 levels Variable CO2 AER SW & LW radiation Prognostic clouds & liquid water Retuned mountain blocking Convective gravity wave drag Ocean modelMOM-3: 60N-65S 1/3 x 1 deg. Assim depth 750 m MOM-4 fully global ¼ x ½ deg. Assim depth 4737 m Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation 2-level LSM No separate land data assim 4 level Noah model GLDAS driven by obs precip Sea iceClimatologyDaily analysis and Prognostic sea ice CouplingDaily30 minutes Data assimilationRetrieved soundings, 1995 analysis, uncoupled background Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background Reforecasts15/month seasonal output25/month (seasonal) 124/month (week 3-6) Climate Forecast System (CFS) Upgrade (Mar 11)

What is it? A global, high resolution, coupled A-O-L-I dataset ( ) that provides the best estimate of the state of the coupled domains How is it used? Initial conditions for historical forecasts, in order to provide stable calibration and skill estimates of CFSv2 for operational seasonal prediction at CPC Real Time Climate Monitoring Estimates and diagnosis of the earth’s climate state over the satellite data period Products Available at hourly time resolution, 0.5° horizontal resolution, 37 pressure levels CFSv2 Reanalysis

21 CFSv2 Capability to Recreate Decadal Temperature Trend OBS Observed temperature trend CTRL Coupled atmosphere-ocean 50 year run with constant CO2 CO2 Observed CO2 and aerosols in both troposphere and stratosphere

Comparison of Predictive Skill for CFSv2 vs CFSv1 For MJO Principle Components 1 and 2 CFSv1 & CFSv2 PC1 & PC2

Impending Domination of Ensemble Based Model Systems Climate: Climate Multi-Model Ensemble –NCEP Climate Forecast System + GFDL Climate Model Mesoscale: Short Range Ensemble Forecasts –WRF/ARW + WRF/NMM + RSM Medium Range Weather: North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) –GFS + MSC + Navy FNMOC NOGAPS Experimental Enhanced Resolution Thunderstorm Outlooks Forecast Nino 3.4 SST Anomalies from CFS Probability of Temperature over 30C over 24 hour period (7 day forecast valid Sept 3-4, 2009)

Summary CPC Delivers a suite of “operational” climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment products Accelerates advances in climate prediction and fills gaps in the “seamless suite” of climate products Works across NOAA and with other organizations on expanded responsibilities for climate; interdisciplinary approaches are the key to success Plays a unique and critical role in NOAA climate services

NCEP Contributions to NOAA Climate Services Dr. Wayne Higgins, Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP CSPM F2F Meeting February 11, 2010

NCEP Contributions to Implement The Climate Service 26 FY11 Priority Areas – Science – Predictions and Projections – Observations – Data – Monitoring – Science and Services – Partnerships – Regional – Communication – Assessments – Attribution Focus on Execution – NCEP FY11 AOP activities – Integration/ Redirection NCEP FY11 Headlines – Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2 and CFSRR) – Multi Model Ensemble (CSF+EUROSIP) – Climate Monitoring & Climate Portal

Predictions and Projections – Sustain and Enhance Climate Operations Monitoring – NOAA Climate Monitoring Summit Science and Services – “Changes in Extremes of Weather and Climate” needs assessment 27

Actions Planned Improve statistical and dynamical forecast models, tools and techniques Issue operational climate outlooks Milestones FY11Q4: Develop & test a seasonal MME forecast tool that combines CFS & EUROSIP FY11Q3: Evaluate prediction of sea-ice in CFSv2 FY11Q3: Assess prediction skill for week2 to week4 in the CFSv2 FY11Q3: Issue and update the 2011 Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Seasonal Outlooks FY11Q4: Develop new metric based on extended range and seasonal forecasts FY11Q3: Establish International Monsoon Forecaster Training Desk Predictions and Projections DRAFT EXAMPLE Task: Sustain and Enhance Climate Operations Objective: Improve scientific understanding Performance Measures: US Seasonal Temperature Forecasts Core Capability : Understanding and Modeling Societal Challenge: Climate Impacts on Water Resources; Changes in Extremes of Weather and Climate Target: 21.0 Actual: 21.4 Target: 21.0 Actual: 21.4 Risk: Implement MOA, CONOPS and AOP milestones between NWS and CS for CFS development, execution, archive and (real-time) delivery Mitigating Risk: MOA, CONOPS currently under development

Actions Planned Enhance coordination of climate monitoring activities across NOAA, including overlaps and gaps, key indices, users and outreach Milestones FY11Q1: Lead Climate Monitoring Summit FY11Q2: Complete CMS Report, including inventory, and monitoring definition FY11Q1-Q4:Provide support for the expansion of the NOAA Climate Portal FY11Q3: Complete satellite-gauge merged precipitation analysis FY11Q4: Update A-O-L climatologies from to base period Monitoring DRAFT EXAMPLE Objective: Improve scientific understanding Performance Measures: Number of monitoring products incorporated into the ECV-based analysis tool Task: NOAA Climate Monitoring Summit Report, including inventory, definition and recommendations Core Capability : Observing Systems, Data Stewardship and Climate Monitoring Societal Challenge: Changes in Extremes of Weather and Climate; Climate Impacts on Water Resources Target: X products Actual: Y products Target: X products Actual: Y products Risk Stand up Climate Monitoring Working Group to implement CMS recommendations Mitigating Risk Briefs to CS Corporate Board, NOSC and NEP/NEC to request help in standing up CMWG Name of ProductUS Precipitation Anomalies & Accumulation DelivererESRL Physical Sciences Division Assessment / Presentation methodOnline Maps Data sets drawn uponGTS, SHEF, HADS, SNOTEL User access to deeper archiveNot apparent (real-time only) Observing systems utilized Update FrequencyDaily Latency1 day Geographic ScopeCONUS In Existence Since Period of Record Normal / Baseline average periodUnknown Time resolution Spatial resolution UnitsPercent of Normal Variance / UncertaintyNot apparent Intended or Apparent user baseAgriculture, Water Management Uniqueness within this ECV / Category Scope of scientific vettingInternal assessment

NOAA Climate Services Portal 30 One-stop access for NOAA’s climate information Multiple audiences so multiple avenues to access information –ClimateWatch Magazine –Data and Services –Understanding Climate –Education –Climate Dashboard

Actions Planned Identify FY11 deliverables (for AOP) Coordinate the team of people & execution Needs Assessment process focused initially on CFSv2 user needs Develop storyline for needs assessment and societal challenge for the FY2011 initial focus within a broader perspective of information needs Milestones FY11 Q2: Establish small team for WxCx Societal Challenge FY11Q2: Administer Changes in Extremes of Wx and Cx Needs Assessment data collection for users of CFS (Data Collection) FY11Q2: Hold CFSv2 Needs Assessment Workshop with focus group of representative internal and external users (Data Collection) FY11Q3: CFS “White Paper” with findings and interpretation, including defining needs and proposed means to fill gaps (Data Analysis) FY11Q4: Incorporate Requirements for CFSv2 into CS and NWS FY12 AOP Science and Services DRAFT EXAMPLE Objective: Science and Services Task: Complete an initial Needs Assessment for Changes in Extremes of Weather and Climate Core Capability : Integrated Service Development and Decision Support Societal Challenge: Changes in Extremes of Weather and Climate Target: X Actual: Y Target: X Actual: Y Risk How to tap NOAA's close partners such as the RISAs, RCCs and state climatologists? Mitigating Risk

CPC Top Priorities 1. Climate Outlooks Objectives: Provide extended range, monthly and seasonal outlooks over the US; Provide seasonal outlooks for hurricane activity, droughts, & ENSO 2. Climate Monitoring Objectives: Monitor atmospheric, oceanic and land surface climate variability 3. Climate Assessments Objectives: Provide assessments & attribution of weather & climate anomalies on ISI timescales 4. Interagency and International Commitments Objectives: Enhance partnership with USDA for Joint Agriculture Weather Facility; Sustain and enhance CPC International Desks (Africa Desk, Monsoon Desk) 5. Climate Test Bed Objectives: Accelerate transition of climate research advances to operations (CFS improvements; MME prediction systems; climate products) 6. Data Base Management Objectives: Maintain, develop, and backup, data bases critical to CPC prediction and monitoring activities 7. Computer Systems, Information Technology, and Operational Reliability Objectives: Maintain CPC computing and IT infrastructure and provide support for CPC’s operational products

33 National Weather Service: Collaborating on Climate Services

Goals/Objective Support CS vision/mission Key challenges:  Climate/Weather linkage for short term predictions  Production of climate information to meet national, regional and local needs  User engagement User requirements and service delivery Preparedness vs Adaptation  Training/education of workforce 34

Major Activities Climate Monitoring  Climate Monitoring Summit (CPC led), including report, inventory and definition  Enhance Climate Portal Models  Upgrade of real-time CFS v2  Joining EUROSIP (ECMWF, UKMet, Meteo France) Field/Delivery of Climate Services  RCSDs facilitate user engagement in partnership with the NWS field structure  Team approach for decision support at national, regional and local levels  Training for WFO/RFC personnel 35

Climate Responsibilities of NWS and CS Societal Action DominatesPersonal Action Dominates Low Freq of Information Long Lifetime of Product High Freq of Information Short Lifetime of Product NWS Climate Responsibilities Deliver climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment products and services to support response and preparedness, including related applied research and modeling to improve capabilities Understand and predict the influences of climate on weather events to deliver seamless prediction Mission: More short-term response and preparedness (i.e. non permanent actions to respond to and prepare for infrequent threats such as, floods, hurricanes, El Niño). Early warning; more accurate information; less uncertainty Shared Strategic Challenges Improved understanding and ability to simulate and predict the relationship between climate variation and extreme events NWS monitoring and assessment of variability will provide information to CS assessments of decadal climate change CS assessments of climate change forcing of variability will provide information to NWS predictions CS Provide assessment services and projections, and research to improve predictions and projections Mission: More long term adaptation and mitigation related (e.g. Are floods affecting a community more frequently? Are they more intense? What actions can be taken?) CS also addresses mitigation of climate change, a distinct difference between NCS and NWS