National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 21 JuLY 2015

Outline Welcome – Eric Reutebuch, AU Water Resources Center Current drought status, seasonal forecasts and outlooks – David Zierden, Florida Climate Center, FSU Streamflows and groundwater – Tony Gotvald, USGS Streamflow forecasts – Jeff Dobur, SERFC Summary and Discussion

Global Climate – Warmest June on Record Warmest June on record. Warmest Jan. – June on record, 2015 likely to be new record Last ten 12-month periods have all been records.

Current drought status

Increasing Ag. Water Demand

Rainfall – Last 7 Days

30-Day Rainfall

90-day Rainfall Departures

Current SST Anomalies

Nino Indices All four Nino regions above +1.0 for13 consecutive weeks, longest such stretch on record (1990) Nino 3.4 (2 nd from top) at +1.7, meeting the “Strong” designation

Nino 3.4 Forecasts

What Does a Strong El Nino Mean? Composites of similar strong summer El Nino’s May and June (top) show increased rainfall for TX, OK, (happened this year) and much of the Southeast Late summer July-August (bottom) shows tendency for dryness Well-known to enhance summer monsoon season in the Southwest Not much summer impact in California and western U.S.

Official NOAA 3 and 6-Month Outlook NOAA’s 3-month outlook (top) favors enhanced monsoon over the Southwest. Cold season outlook for Nov. – Jan. (bottom) strongly favors above normal rainfall in the Southeast

Summer Rainfall Climatology

Atlantic Hurricane Outlook NOAA Seasonal Outlook 70% chance of: 6-11 named storms 3-6 hurricanes 0-3 major hurricanes

U.S. Drought Outlook

Streamflows and Groundwater Tony Gotvald

Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages Current: Previous Brief:

Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with historical streamflow for day shown Current: Previous brief:

Lake Lanier Inflows Chattahoochee near Cornelia ( ) Chestatee near Dahlonega ( )

Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at Atlanta ( ) Chattahoochee near Whitesburg ( )

Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at West Point ( ) Chattahoochee at Columbus( )

Current Streamflows Flint River near Griffin ( ) Flint River near Carsonville ( )

Current Streamflows Flint River at Albany ( ) Flint at Bainbridge ( )

Streamflows Apalachicola at Chattahoochee ( )

Groundwater Conditions Previous briefCurrent brief

Groundwater Status – Miller County 08G001 (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

Groundwater Status – Early County 08K001 (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

Streamflow Forecasts Jeff Dobur

Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Lake Lanier Inflows Whitesburg West Point Columbus WF George Columbus Woodruff Blountstown Lovejoy Carsonville Albany

Summary – David Zierden Globally, June 2015 was the warmest June on record, calendar year 2015 likely to be warmest on record. Entering the period of peak water demand for most row crops. Mostly normal rainfall the past days for upper ACF, normal to below normal in the middle and lower basin. Parts of the middle and lower ACF designated as Abnormally Dry by the US Drought Monitor. El Nino continues to strengthen, reaching “Strong” level. NOAA and European Center models forecast near-record El Nino. CPC 3-month Outlook strongly favor pattern of above normal rainfall for Southwest U.S., equal chances for the Southeast. Cold season outlook strongly favors above normal precipitation for most of the ACF basin. Strong/Early El Nino composites suggest possible dryness late in the summer.

Summary-Tony Gotvald Realtime streamflows are in the normal range for most of the upper ACF basin and in the below normal range for most of the lower ACF. 28-day average streamflows into Lake Lanier are in the normal range. 28-day average streamflows are in the normal range throughout the upper Flint River basin and below normal throughout the lower Flint River basin. Groundwater levels are in the normal range in Southwest Georgia.

1 Month Streamflow forecast - Near Normal 3 Month Streamflow forecast – Dryness has set probabilities to near to below normal range. Pie Charts do not consider any future forecast such as ENSO, CPC or other. Based on soil conditions relative to normal in concert with historical precipitation. Summary- Jeff Dobur

Questions, Comments, Discussion

References Additional information  General drought information  General climate and El Niño information  Streamflow monitoring & forecasting  Groundwater monitoring Speakers David Zierden, FSU Tony Gotvald, USGS Jeff Dobur, SERFC Moderator Eric Reutebuch, AU WRC

Thank you! Next briefing August 18, 2015 August 18, 2015, 1:00 pm EDT Moderator: Eric Reutebuch Slides from this briefing will be posted at Please send comments and suggestions to: