Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006 Monstrous Foresight Matt Staton A Bigger Splash Ltd.

Monstrous Foresight Route Map Who,what,why Matt Staton Barcelona A Bigger Splash Keen foresighter Responding to the line in the call for papers on: ‘Epistemology’, presuppositions, underpinning things

Monstsrous Foresight There’s no future in foresight. A strange thing about foresight is that you rarely hear anything about the future We ‘think’, ‘debate’ and ‘shape’ it But the future ‘as such’ is never mentioned Seems unproblematic, common-or-garden space/time

Monstrous Foresight A Weak concept of future is a problem Of course, it can’t account for itself fully, but Such a key concept needs a bit more attention Not simply ‘out there’, the same stuff as present We posit, populate, exclude, stake claims - politics

Monstrous Foresight By default F has become dominated by dialogue And this ‘dialogic’ approach is peculiarly limiting Open, interactive, communicative, learning, consensus But barely a form of communication at all And conspires to exclude or subsume the ‘future proper’

Monstrous Foresight And we get a ‘future’ tied to today Extending our present conversations forward, a bit As it is judged by their clarity and relevance So we get management and resource allocation plans Never beyond future contained in present, future perfect

Monstrous Foresight But future is different stuff to present And if we use tools designed to cope with present Creates conceptual or ‘language game’ clash Future either escapes us or looks like the present Leaves us with problems from Mike and Remi’s paper

Monstrous Foresight Of course, S&T governance vital But we don’t need foresight for most of this Again, Mike and Remi’s paper lists benefits: Better strategies, making case for increased R&D spend, creation of networks & clusters, collective learning etc. All excellent, none unique

Monstrous Foresight Is there a future for foresight? Different future, different future, new role ‘Danger, break, monstrosity, shakes values, no exergue’ Open, unpredicatable, emerging for first time In form we can’t administer under existing rules Demands stronger (be)foresight

Monstrous Foresight So, undirected monster chasing, good idea! But how would we sell this to funders? With different take on what science does ‘Paralogic’ and not ‘performative’ ‘fracta, conflicts, catastrophes, paradoxes, unknown’

Monstrous Foresight Some (v.) preliminary thoughts about practice What kind of work might this actually be? New ideas, shocks, echoes, junk, flotsam, residue Something like research not management/admin supplement In name of knowledge, not insitutions, cultures, govt Legitimised/evaluated by paralogy – resistant outcomes

Monstrous Foresight What kind of tools might do the job? Nothing ever happens to a subject: foresight machines Future arrives to something other than subject Perhaps think about revisiting big Delphis Augmented with potential of IT

Monstrous Foresight Conclusion The incomprehensible may be the revolutionary Anomalies, monsters, the intolerable, the unacceptable Transform the nature of social and culture experience Before appropriation and assimilation and dialogue This might be the ground of foresight Working on conceptual frontier Welcoming, receptive to the ‘monstrous arrivant’ Anticipatory foresight, common ground we all share Thanks…