Transportation leadership you can trust. presented to presented by Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Comprehensive Validation of Activity-Based Models Experiences.

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Presentation transcript:

Transportation leadership you can trust. presented to presented by Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Comprehensive Validation of Activity-Based Models Experiences from Houston-Galveston Area Council’s Activity-Based Model Development TRB Applications Conference May 21, 2015 Martin Milkovits Arun Kuppam David Kurth Thomas Rossi

Tour-Level Choices Long-Term Choices Stop/Trip-Level Choices H-GAC ABM Structure 2 All Tour Stop Generation and Mode Choice Tour Generation Mandatory Tour Destination and Time of Day Auto Ownership, Work Location, School Location Daily Activity Pattern (Including Work/School Travel) Fully Joint Travel Stop (Trip)-Level Destination, Time of Day, and Mode Choice Individual Nonmandatory Travel School Escorting Model Joint Tour Destination and Time of Day Individual Nonmandatory Tour Destination and Time of Day

Validation Approach 3 Identify key areas of future analysis Compile validation data Assure correct model operation Prevalidation Population synthesis validation Single-pass validation (TourCast) Full-feedback validation Sensitivity test Elasticity test Backcast test Validation Tests

Sensitivity Tests Straight-forward to setup » Synthesized population » Land use data » Networks » Model parameters » Fix random seed Wide array of potential scenarios » Time dependent » Demographic profile 4

Example scenarios 5

Examine variations across components Activity Pattern Tour Generation Destinations Time of Day Trip-Chaining Mode Choice Assignment 6 Change in Tours in Peak Period with Peak Period Toll Increase

Lessons Learned Comprehensive validation reports support sensitivity tests and other model analyses Sensitivity tests key to evaluate model capabilities and assure correct operation Useful training opportunity 7

It takes a village… 8 Chris van Slyke, Chi-Ping Lam, Sharon Ju, Heng Wang, David Gao, Michael Onuogu H-GAC Vincent Sanders Houston Metro Andy Mullins Texas Transportation Institute Pat Coleman, Srikanth Neelisetty, Nagaruju Kashayi AECOM Vijay Mahal HDR