Map Your Hazards! Combining Natural Hazards with Societal Issues Introduction to Vulnerability, Risk and Risk Perception

Natural Hazard: Physical process which has the potential to cause loss or damage to something valued by an individual or a society. Modified from Wood, 2011

Vulnerability: Potential for damage or loss of a societal asset. Modified from Wood, 2011

Risk: Likelihood of asset damage or loss due to an extreme event. Understand how and why people are at risk if you hope to reduce their risks Modified from Wood, 2011

What is Risk Perception?

What Shapes Risk Perception? Knowledge Hazard knowledge from previous experience Hazard knowledge from information provided by different media Frequency of information received and its credibility Knowledge or preparedness measures or emergency response protocol Spatial Dimension Distance or proximity to hazard-prone regions Length of residence Memory of past events 6

Self-efficacy and sense of community Socioeconomic Pressures Social context in which individuals are situated Trust in an institution responsible for mediating threat Public attitude for guidance of officials in a given region Religious or cultural views High population densities Access to livelihoods Dependent economies Poverty 7 What Shapes Risk Perception?

Does the public know what hazards are locally probable? 8 Research Question: Do the following result in high base of knowledge and accurate risk perception? –Longer residence times –Past experience with a natural hazard –Participation in drills and/or education programs

Research Question: Does the more educated public have a more accurate perception of risk? –What is the level of preparedness within a given community? Research Question: Is the population with the most accurate perception of risk more prepared than those with a less accurate perception of risk? Students will assess these research questions (and more) as they analyze their survey results. 9 Does the public know what hazards are locally probable?

Natural Hazard Risk Perception Raise hazard awareness to set the stage for effective behavior change. Humans anchor hazard information with past experiences Natural disasters at one place are rare and memories fade Scientists can educate on past events and future possibilities Multiple approaches and channels should be used Passive – brochures, publications, maps, videos, posters Active – workshops, drills, preparedness training Use of survivor stories effective in hazard awareness Personalizes the abstract risks discussed by scientists Creates artificial memories of past events Promotes positive outcome expectancy in people Slide courtesy of N. Wood, USGS

Realize that risk tolerance influences willingness to act and that it varies. People assess costs and benefits differently of living in hazard zones At-risk individual who lives and works in hazard zone Politicians avoiding being seen as making “unpopular” decisions Case study: Residents defied government orders to evacuate Baños, Ecuador, due to volcanic activity of Mount Tungurahua. Residents accepted the volcano risks and stayed because evacuees had found limited economic opportunities elsewhere. Slide courtesy of N. Wood, USGS Town of Baños, Ecuador, located downstream from Tungurahua volcano

Understand that people learn differently. Scientists comfortable using 2-D maps Non-scientists not as comfortable with maps Comprehension and acceptance of hazards information highest when information was plotted on three-dimensional representations and oblique photographs, instead of two-dimensional maps (Haynes et al., (2007). Slide courtesy of N. Wood, USGS

There is no “general public.” Effective education personalizes risk to individual needs. Children at schools Older individuals at residential care centers TouristsFactory workersHomeowners There are similar topics Potential for extreme events How to recognize natural clues What warning messages mean How to respond How much time they have But, outreach needs to be tailored to audience Should address local demographic and socioeconomic conditions of at-risk populations Should address limitations of at-risk individuals – e.g., mobility, hearing, awareness Slide courtesy of N. Wood, USGS (photos modified by B. Brand)

 Studies show that people with higher risk perception are more likely to be prepared in the event of a natural disaster.  Important to understand how messages about risk are formed and transformed as they move within a society! Volcanic Risk Perception Raise Hazard Awareness to Set the Stage for Effective Behavior Change Create a “culture of safety” rather than “moments of reaction”

Volcanic risk perception in the Vesuvius population Citation: Barberi et al., Volcanic risk perception in the Vesuvius population Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 172: Link to full paper: Volcanic_risk_perception_in_the_Vesuvius_populatio n/file/79e415017cae729d71.pdf Case Study (optional) Vesuvius with the modern-day town of Herculaneum in the foreground (photo courtesy of B. Brand). The Barberi et al. (2008) paper presents an excellent case study of volcanic hazard and risk for the residents living near Mount Vesuvius in Italy.

Vesuvius’ Eruptive History Mount Vesuvius is famous for its eruption in 79 AD, which buried the towns of Pompeii and Herculaneum (among others) and entombed people in ash. People and artifacts entombed in ash in Pompeii (both photo courtesy of B. Brand). Tourists visiting the ruins of Pompeii – Vesuvius in the background. Years of past Vesuvius eruptions scaled with relative size of the eruption (Author: Dr. Steven Carey

Photograph from the March 1944 eruption of Vesuvius (photo credit in notes). Vesuvius’ Eruptive History A recreation of a Vesuvius eruption observed from Portici (Joseph Wright, ca ).

Video - Eruption of Mt. Vesuvius (1944) Mount Vesuvius has erupted many times since 79 AD and will certainly erupt again. The difference is that now more than a million people are at risk. Read the Barberi paper to learn how people feel about this risk.