Conceptual Models for Non-stationarity Hong Li 1, Stein Beldring 2 & Chong-Yu Xu 1 1. Department of Geosciences,

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Presentation transcript:

Conceptual Models for Non-stationarity Hong Li 1, Stein Beldring 2 & Chong-Yu Xu 1 1. Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Norway 2. Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Norway SimHYD (Australia), Xinanjiang (China) & HBV (Sweden) Towards Improved Projections, IAHS-IAPSO-IASPEI Assembly, Gothenburg, Sweden, July 2013

The Wimmera catchment in Australia Coordinates: Lat: ; Lon: Catchment area: 2000 km² Country: Australia Q: 02 Jan Aug 2009 (whole) P, T and PE: 01 Jan Aug P1: 01/01/ /12/1973 P2: 01/01/ /12/1981 P3: 01/01/ /12/1989 P4: 01/01/ /12/1997 P5: 01/01/ /12/2005 Q H 2

Short summary of the three models 3 ModelSimHYDXAJHBV Input DataP, PE P, T Cal. Pars CountryAustraliaChinaSweden All the models are for discharge simulation at daily time step. XAJ: Xinanjiang P: Precipitation PE: Potential evaporation T: Temperature Cal. Pars.: Calibrated paramters

SimHYD Input: P, PE Cal. Pars.: 7 Chiew,

XAJ Input: P, PE Cal. Pars.: 15 Jiang, 2007 =0 Distribution of tension water capacity Zhao,

HBV Input: P, T Cal. Pars.:12 Temperature 6 Solomatine, 2011

Results of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) NSE>0.6: reasonableNSE>0.8: good Blue: the calibration in each period Red: the validation in the complete period Black: the calibration in the complete period Best 7

Results of Bias (Sim/Obs) : reasonable : good 8 Blue: the calibration in each period Red: the validation in the complete period Black: the calibration in the complete period

What will happen if in flood frequency design? Model (NSE): max Q 9

Conclusions: … XAJ model is the best, and limited. New measuring technology is needed Model structures need to be updated or modified 10 KEEP BUSY!!!