Management of Global Climate Change in Indian Agriculture

Management of climatic risks is important for meeting challenges n Drought: 2/3 land is rainfed; 26 droughts in last 130 years; 1987 and 2002 major drought year; even irrigation system is monsoon dependent n Flood: frequent, especially in eastern India n Frost: common in north-western India n Heat: frequent episodes n Cyclones: in eastern coast

Climatic risks associated with global warming are increasing  Increase in temperatures, hot days, hot nights, and heat waves. Global mean temperatures have increased by 0.74 o C during last 100 years.  Increasing frequency of heavy precipitation events- more droughts and floods  Tropical cyclones to become more intense, with heavier precipitation.

Changes in annual mean surface air temperature (°C) for relative to baseline ( )

Changes in rainfall (%) for the period relative to baseline ( )

Changes in Extreme Rainfall Rainy Days Intensity (mm/Day)

Free-air CO 2 enrichment (FACE) system in IARI

Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture  CO 2 fertilization benefits = < 10% average  In short-term, impacts of mean changes in climate are likely to be small  In long run, impacts are likely to be large. Crop productivity to decrease by 10-40% by  Some improvement in chickpea, mustard; rabi maize, sorghum and millets; and coconut in west coast; less frost damage in potato, peas, mustard  Impact on livestock, fisheries and pests  Impact on food trade

Heavy rainfall events (>10cm) Very heavy rainfall events (>15cm) Heavy precipitation events in India have increased during last 50 years Source: IITM, Goswami et al. 2006; data is the frequency in each of 143 grids in the region Light to moderate rainfall events (5-100 mm)

Managing increasing climatic variability is likely to be difficult but is critical n Increased frequency of short- episodes of –droughts –floods –heat n These are likely to significantly increase production variability

Yield loss in Sorghum due to short periods of drought in Rajasthan

Traditional adaptations/coping strategies to climatic stress practiced by farmers  Drought proofing by mixed cropping  Changing varieties / crops / planting time: matching crop phenology with weather/water availability  Diversifying income sources including livestock raising

Limitations of available adaptation strategies –Limited local relief –Time lag in responses at all scales o Availability of seeds of adapted varieties and other technologies at a short notice o Once planted, only limited relief is possible o Unpredictable extreme events complicate further –Need for other adaptation strategies

Adaptation strategies to climate change in agriculture 1. Assist farmers in coping with current climatic risks 2. Intensify food production systems 3. Improve land and water management 4. Enabling policies and regional cooperation 5. Strengthen research for enhancing adaptive capacity and mitigation potential

Adaptation strategies in agriculture: Assist farmers to cope with current climatic risks n Establishing an early warning system of climatic risks/disasters n Promoting insurance for climatic risk management n Strengthening pest surveillance and forecasting mechanisms

Adaptation strategies in agriculture: Intensify food production systems Adaptation strategies in agriculture: Intensify food production systems n Bridge yield gaps in crops and regions –Quality seed –Integrated nutrient management –Integrated pest management –Demonstrations of new technologies –Farmers training Yield gaps in soybean in India Demand by 2020

Adaptation strategies in agriculture: Enabling policies and regional cooperation n Integrating adaptation perspectives in current policy considerations n Providing financial incentives for resource conservation n Securing finances and technologies for adaptation

n Assess regional impacts on crops, livestock, fisheries, pests, and microbes n Evolve ‘adverse climate tolerant’ genotypes and land use systems n Re-examine water and fertilizer management for adaptation and mitigation n Study dynamics of pest movements and virulence Adaptation strategies in agriculture: Strengthen research on adaptation Adaptation strategies in agriculture: Strengthen research on adaptation

Conclusions n Climate change is a reality n Indian agriculture is likely to suffer losses in long run due to heat, erratic weather, and decreased irrigation availability n Adaptation strategies can help minimize negative impacts to some extent n These need research and policy support

Recent initiatives of ICAR n A Network on Climate Change launched in 2004, currently 23 centers all over India n Multi-Disciplinary Expert Group established for planning and monitoring n Climate change a priority area for National Agricultural Innovations Project (NAIP) funding n Thrust areas prioritized through a National Conference in October 2007 n Briefings for State Agriculture Ministers and MPs