IS BANGLADESH SELF-SUFFICIENT IN FOOD (GRAIN) PRODUCTION? Food Security in Bangladesh Pieter Dijkhuizen Country Director WFP Bangladesh World Food 1 Programme

Reply to this question is important for strategy of WFP assistance to Bangladesh : Food self-sufficiency: withdrawal or local purchase World Food Programme 2

Considerable progress has been made in last 25 years: From “Bottomless Basket” to discussion: “Is Bangladesh Self-Sufficient? In the 70’s : up to 20% of food provided by food aid In 2000: food aid amounts to 2% of food supply World Food Programme 3

Conflicting Information  GOB claims self-sufficiency:  Food grain availability in 2000: 25.5 m MT corresponds with 196 kg/cap/yr or 1900 kcal/cap/day  Newspapers report farm prices for rice depressed due to lack of demand World Food Programme 4

 HKI reports wide-spread serious malnutrition:  Women almost 50% have BMI<18.5*; 45% Anaemic; 25% Vit-A deficient  Children <5 yrs: 55% Stunted*, Underweight, Anaemic 25% Vit-A deficient * Indicating Chronic Under nutrition World Food Programme 5

Food availability in 2000/01 (GOB) ( m MT Food grains) Rice Wheat Total Net local production* Commercial imports Food aid import * 10% seeds and losses subtracted World Food Programme 6

Food Requirement GOB assumes food grain requirement of 454 g/cap/day (1 lb) Total net food grain requirement for Bangladesh therefore: 454 g x 365 days x 130 m people = 21.5 m MT World Food Programme 7

With this requirement of 21.5 m MT Bangladesh already self-sufficient with reported local rice production of 22.5 m MT. Questions: Why still (commercial) import? What happens with surplus? Why still such malnutrition? World Food Programme 8

Considering physiological needs and socio- economic conditions FAO distinguishes 3 levels of food requirements: 1. Emergency level – 1800 kcal/cap/day 2. Requirement level – 2120 kcal/cap/day 3. Recommended level – 2400 kcal/cap/day World Food Programme 9

Recommended level (2400 kcal/day) takes into account:  Composition population  Size individuals  Physical activity level  Climate  Type of diet  Disease level  Distribution inequality World Food Programme 10

 FAO food balance sheet for BGD and other information indicates that around 75% of energy in diet derived from food grains (90% rice/10% wheat)  Accepting the 2400 kcal recommended diet and 75% food grain contribution, the food grain requirement will be: 0.75 x 2400/357* = 504 g/cap/day * Nutritional value 90% rice/10% wheat diet World Food Programme 11

Total needs-based food grain requirement: 504 g x 365 days x 130 m people = 23.9 m MT This amount coincides with claimed local food grain production (24.0 m) However availability (25.5 m MT) still exceeds requirement Questions: Still 1 m MT surplus Wide spread malnutrition unexplained World Food Programme 12

Consumption Surveys:  1999 poverty monitoring survey (BBS)  2000 household income and expenditure survey (BBS) outcome:  45% population (60 m) : absolute poverty (food intake <2122 kcal/day)  20% population (26 m): hard-core poverty (food intake <1805 kcal/day) World Food Programme 13

Food Intake (g/day) : FOOD ITEM PMS HHI & ES FOODGRAIN477*476* POTATO VEGETABLES MILK & MP MEAT PEF PULSES OTHERS * Represents 75% of energy value diet World Food Programme 14

According Consumption Surveys: T otal food grain consumption 477 g x 365 days x 130m people = 22.6 m MT = “true” availability “Real” requirement : 23.9 m MT Deficit between requirement and availability: 23.9 – 22.6= 1.3 m MT Demand lower than requirement due to lack of purchasing power World Food Programme 15

“Realistic” local production:  22.6 m MT (consumption) – 1.5 m MT (imports) = 21.1 m MT  Gap between “real” requirement and “realistic” local production : = 2.8 m MT  Deficit between requirement and availability: 23.9 – 22.6= 1.3 m MT World Food Programme 16

Summary Consumption = availability = 22.6 m MT food grain Local production overestimated (losses too low) ‘Realistic’ net local production: 22.6 – 1.5 = 21.1 m MT (not 24.0) ‘Real’ requirement estimated at 23.9 m MT (not 21.5) Gap requirement – local production: 23.9 – 21.1 = 2.8 m MT (12.7%) Gap requirement – availability: 23.9 – 22.6 = 1.3 m MT Above scenario explains importation needs and malnutrition World Food Programme 17

Conclusion  D espite commercial imports and food aid still considerable food deficit (1.3 m MT food grains): due to lack of purchasing power  Food grain self-sufficiency not yet achieved  For immediate future still need for (imported) food aid World Food Programme 18

What is the perspective for food(grain) self-sufficiency of Bangladesh? Detailed information from poverty monitoring survey provides some insights World Food Programme 19

Poverty Monitoring Survey: Intake Data (g/day) World Food Programme 20 ITEMALLPOORNON-POORFAOFBS FOODGRAIN 477* 439* 504* 518 POTATO VEGETABLES MILK & MP MEAT PEF PULSES OTHERS TOTAL KCAL PROTEIN G FAT G * Respectively 75%, 80%, 70% Energy Value Diet

PMS/FAO-FBS Generic Developing Country World Food Programme 21 ITEM PMS/N-PIMPORT/EXPORTFAOFBS-GDC FOODGRAIN /-455 POTATO 72 1/-167 VEGETABLES 169 5/-253 MILK&MP 47 16/-129 MEAT & PEF 89 1/ 4135 PULSES 29 32/- 21 OTHER (Fr Fa Su.) 152Fa 90/- Su 50/ KCAL 2500 PROT G 63 FAT G

Discussion 1:  Diet Bangladeshi particular:  High rice demand  Low fat use  Large unmet demand for  Rice  Vegetables/fruit  Meat/fish/milk  Importation  Food grain  Milk  Fat  Sugar World Food Programme 22

Discussion 2:  Food grain component of diet high; expected to decrease with increase affluence population  Rice production has growth potential: local paddy yield 3.6 MT/Ha, surrounding countries 5.0 MT/Ha (40% up)  Decreased rice area would make room for foods now imported World Food Programme 23

Discussion 3:  Food aid to bridge food gap of ultra-poor: (together with development package)  Local production need to be stimulated: role for GOB agricultural price policies  Only limited local purchases food aid possible now; large scale purchases will interfere with market price World Food Programme 24

Food Aid 2002 WFP Multilateral MT Bilateral Australia MT Bilateral EEC MT Sub-total WFP MT Canada Bilateral MT USAID Bilateral MT MT World Food Programme 25

Thank You World Food Programme