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Potential Study Overview  Define “Potential Study”  Types of Potential  Cost-Effectiveness EVT and BED Territories Forecast without DSM  Sales  Demand Measure Characteristics  Developing Measure Lists  Measure Assumptions  Replace on burnout vs. Early retirement  Calculating Potential 2 Overview of VT Savings Potential  Residential  Commercial/Industrial  Economic Results

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Simply put, a potential study is a quantitative analysis of the amount of energy savings that either exists, is cost-effective, or could be realized through the implementation of energy efficiency programs and policies. 4 -National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency

5 Technical Potential  Complete saturation of all technically feasible measures evaluated in the study Economic Potential  Complete saturation of all cost-effective technical potential  Used most recent Board approved avoided costs Achievable Potential  Base case of all economic potential that is achievable given market barriers

6 Definition: Maximum Achievable Potential describes the economic potential that could be achieved over a given time period under the most aggressive program scenario. To reach maximum achievable potential, study assumes: - high levels of penetration over the 20-year period - incentive levels set at 100% of the measure cost - includes replace on burnout and early retirement opportunities To reach maximum achievable potential, study assumes: - high levels of penetration over the 20-year period - incentive levels set at 100% of the measure cost - includes replace on burnout and early retirement opportunities

7 Vermont Societal Test  Similar to the Total Resource Cost Test  Benefits: Avoided Energy and Supply Costs, Avoided Fossil Fuel Consumption, Avoided O&M Benefits  Costs: Utility Costs, Participant Costs  Includes a 10% reduction to costs  $0.007 per kWh saved (in $2000) adopted as an environmental adder  Replaces 5% adder for environmental externalities $ Benefit $ Cost > 1 Test result of 3.5 means that for every dollar invested, the benefit returned is $3.50.

The GDS screening model was used to screen all measures and to calculate benefit/cost ratios This analysis considered the following:  Length of study (20 years)  Line losses (~10%)  General rate of inflation (2.6%)  Real Discount rate (5.6%)  Planning reserve margin (14%)  Energy efficiency measure load shapes and coincidence factors (EVT TRM) 8

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Analysis presents results for electric energy efficiency savings potential in the service areas of Vermont’s two energy efficiency utilities (EEU).  Burlington Electric Department (BED) – EEU for City of Burlington  Vermont Energy Investment Corporation – EEU for the remainder of the State, under the name Efficiency Vermont (EVT) Differences:  Vermont Gas serves the BED Territory. EVT Territory has limited access to natural gas  More electric water heating in EVT Territory  Greater percent of multi-family housing in BED Territory compared to EVT Territory  Slower average annual growth rate in load forecast (sales) Presentation results are combined as statewide unless explicitly stated. 10

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12 ** Load Forecast used in this analysis is from the Itron Unadjusted Load Forecast, and are at the end-meter. *** Also utilized BED Load Forecast for BED Territory ; subtracted BED forecast from statewide forecast to attain EVT forecast MWh Sales Generation 20122,188,2752,045,481977,56137,7535,249,0705,773, ,175,0592,075,448983,09238,0015,271,5995,798, ,181,2692,097,410986,61438,1255,303,4185,833, ,192,6492,113,881989,28538,1885,334,0035,867, ,211,9262,127,124991,62338,2205,368,8925,905, ,219,3672,140,287993,97938,2365,391,8695,931, ,234,1082,153,730996,29538,2445,422,3775,964, ,249,0632,166,881998,60338,2485,452,7955,998, ,271,2172,179,8531,000,97538,2505,490,2946,039, ,278,8122,193,0471,003,42638,2515,513,5366,064, ,295,0852,206,6291,005,87638,2515,545,8416,100, ,313,4122,220,5561,008,31838,2515,580,5376,138, ,340,0542,234,9031,010,80338,2515,624,0116,186, ,354,7962,251,5631,013,33438,2525,657,9446,223, ,375,8162,267,5121,015,90038,2525,697,4806,267, ,397,0182,282,8041,018,47038,2525,736,5436,310, ,425,8062,298,1041,021,04338,2525,783,2046,361, ,440,2852,312,5291,023,61238,2525,814,6776,396, ,462,1842,325,9671,026,20138,2525,852,6046,437, ,484,2792,339,4841,028,79738,2525,890,8126,479,893 Compound Annual Average Rate of Growth 0.67%0.71%0.27%0.07%0.61%

13 Summer Peak (MW) LoadWinter Peak (MW) Load YearResidentialComm.Ind.OtherTotalResidentialComm.Ind.OtherTotal , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,015 Compound Annual Average Rate of Growth 1.41%0.94%0.23%0.00%1.00%0.45%0.93%0.02%0.00%0.54% ** Load Forecast used in this analysis is from the Itron Unadjusted Load Forecast, and are at the end-meter.

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15 End Use TypeEnd-Use DescriptionMeasures/Programs Includes AppliancesGeneral Home Appliances* Dehumidifiers * Refrigerators * Freezers * Refrigerator/Freezer Turn-In Appliances/WHKitchen/Laundry* Clothes Washers, Dishwashers * Heat Pump Dryers * Clothes Dryer - Fuel Switch ElectronicsHome Electronics* Controlled Power Strips * Internal Power Supplies, Laptops, Computer Monitors * Televisions (LED, LCD, Plasma) * Set Top Boxes * Misc. Consumer Electronics HVAC (Envelope)Building Envelope Upgrades* Weatherization * Weatherization & Insulation Package * Energy Star Windows HVAC (Equipment)Heating/Cooling /Ventilation Equipment* Efficient Central AC, Room AC * Efficient Furnace Fan Motors * Exhaust Fans * Primary Space Heat - Fuel Switch (MF Only) * Reverse Cycle Chillers – Emerging Tech. (MF Only) LightingIndoor/Outdoor Lighting* Incandescent to CFL/LED * CFL to LED * Specialty CFL bulbs (<=15W) * Specialty CFL bulbs (>15W) * Indoor/Outdoor Lighting Controls OtherMiscellaneous Efficiency Measures* Pool Pump Timer * 2-speed Pool Pump Motor * Direct Feedback Devices (In Home Display Units) – Emerging Tech. * Indirect Energy Consumption Feedback – Emerging Tech. Water HeatingDomestic Hot Water* Efficient Storage Tank WH * Heat Pump WH * Solar WH (w/ Electric Back Up) – Emerging Tech. * Electric Water Heater - Fuel Switch * Tank Wrap, Pipe Wrap * Low Flow Showerheads, Faucet Aerators

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Deemed Savings Manuals On-Site Surveys (NMR/KEMA) EIA Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS & RECS) Energy Modeling Software Other energy efficiency potential studies Energy efficiency conference proceedings Program Evaluation Reports 17

Replace on burnout measure cost is incremental cost ; savings are calculated as difference between high efficiency and standard efficiency new equipment Early replacement cost is initially the full cost of the new equipment, then a cost credit occurs when the measure would be replaced anyway at the end of its useful life. Savings are initially based on difference between high efficiency equipment energy used and the energy use of the existing equipment being removed Early replacement can produce greater net benefits but also require greater initial incentives and budgets Both programmatic approaches can be cost effective to the Vermont Societal Test 18

Tech. Potential Example: 100,000 homes 75% have dishwashers 25% of all dishwashers are energy efficient (Remaining potential is 75%) 70 kWh annual savings 100,000 * 75% = 75,000 homes 75,000 * 75% ( 100%-25%)= 56,250 homes 56,250 * 70kWh = 3,937,500 kWh 19 Note: Estimated 50/50 split between replace on burnout and early retirement. In this example, 28,125 homes would be targeted as early retirement and 28,125 homes targeted as replace-on-burnout

20 “Top-Down” approach disaggregates baseline statewide sales forecast by building type and end use based on:  Itron end use forecasts (heating, cooling, and other for commercial)  KEMA market characterization  CBECS  MECS Measures applied to specific building/end use combinations and characterized by:  Savings (absolute and percent of end use consumption)  Effective Useful Life  Applicability Measure data sources include the Vermont TRM, EVT data, KEMA market characterization studies, ACEEE, and other secondary sources Applicability factors account for competition between measures

21 Assumed 100% incentives Retained 50/50 split between replace-on-burnout and early retirement Assumes approximately 90% of the eligible market is reached by 2031 Assumes efficiency measures that reach the end of their useful life prior to 2031 are reintroduced into the analysis to allow savings (and costs) to persist throughout the entire 20-year study Includes a reduction to measure costs over time for emerging technologies and LED bulbs.  Other measure costs remain constant in nominal dollars

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25 28% of Technical Potential can be achieved for less than $0.08/kWh

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– Assumes CFL Becomes New Lighting Baseline

29 Energy Savings (as a % of 2031 Sales) by End-Use

30 Energy Savings (as a % of 2031 Sales) by End-Use

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32 8% of Technical Potential can be achieved for less than $0.08/kWh

33 Technical Potential Energy (MWh) Summer Peak Demand (MW) Winter Peak Demand (MW) Space Heating15, Space Cooling65, Ventilation88, Water Heating8, Lighting357, Cooking Refrigeration80, Office Equipment8, Computers34, Process127, Other20, TOTAL808, % of 2031 C&I Sales23.7%16.0%12.7% Economic Potential Energy (MWh) Summer Peak Demand (MW) Winter Peak Demand (MW) Space Heating14, Space Cooling57, Ventilation39, Water Heating7, Lighting343, Cooking Refrigeration69, Office Equipment7, Computers25, Process127, Other15, TOTAL710, % of 2031 C&I Sales20.8%14.7%11.4%

34 Δ 639,051 MWh in 2031 Adjusted Load Forecast

All Sectors Combined  Energy – 1,533,411 MWh  Summer Demand – MW  Winter Demand – MW 36 $2,319.7 Million (NPV Benefits) $1,033.2 Million (NPV Costs) Achievable Potential based on aggressive market penetration targeting all cost- effective measures and ~90% of the remaining market. Combined Costs ($NPV)  Measure– $702.3 Million  Admin. – $330.8 Million

NPV Measure Costs are $702.3 million (out of the total $1,033 million VT Societal Costs) NPV Incentives are $839.7 million NPV Incentives are greater than NPV measure costs because incentives were calculated as 100% of the measure cost whereas the VT societal test has applied a 10% reduction to measure costs for all calculations NPV Benefits represent lifetime benefits of all measures including electric avoided costs, avoided fuel consumption, water savings, other O&M benefits, as well as the VT Societal Test externality benefits. 37

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39 Incentives range from 47%- 63% of the total estimated budgets annually

40 (770) Dick Spellman (770) Amber Roberts (770) Jeffrey Huber (XXX) XXX-XXXX Hossein Haeri (XXX) XXX-XXXX Eli Morris

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42 Initial effort to compare any significant differences between the two independent studies Overall, similar methodologies were used to determine the potential for electric energy efficiency savings As discussed, there were some differences in assumptions throughout the study Comparison effort will continue to further understand the distinctions between the two studies

43 Includes 3 statewide forecasts (Technical, Economic, Max. Achievable) at the BED, EVT, and statewide levels Forecasts do not include IBM’s energy or potential Net to gross ratio =1 Retrofit pace calculated to capture all retrofit potential at a set rate over the 20 year analysis period GDS/Cadmus Study VEIC Study Includes maximum achievable potential at the statewide level Forecasts include IBM’s energy and potential savings Net to gross ratio dependent upon measure level characterizations and not always equal to 1 Retrofit pace calculated to ramp up quickly and capture a higher percentage of achievable potential over the first decade

44 GDS/Cadmus Study VEIC Study

45 GDS/Cadmus Study VEIC Study