S.C Malik, Director Monojit Das, Deputy Director Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation INDIA.

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Presentation transcript:

S.C Malik, Director Monojit Das, Deputy Director Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation INDIA

 measure in monetary terms of all the commodities (goods and services) produced without duplication within a given period of time  value terms  counted without duplication th March, Beijing, China

 Three alternative approaches 1. Production Approach Measured at the point of production 2. Income Approach Measured at the point of income generation or at the point of final utilisation 3. Expenditure Approach Measured at the point of final utilisation or consumption  Can be measured in any one of these  Better if measure by all for a complete analysis of the economy th March, Beijing, China

 Income available is used up in the form of final consumption or saving or capital formation  GDP = PFCE + GFCE + GFCF + CIS + Export - Import  GCF = GFCF + CIS (PFCE: Private Final Consumption Expenditure, GFCE: Government Final Consumption Expenditure, GCF: Gross Capital Formation, GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation, CIS: Change in Stocks, Ex: Exports, Im: Imports) th March, Beijing, China

 Current Series Base Year (2009)  Previous series base years (1956) (1967) (1978) (1988) (1999) (2006) th March, Beijing, China

 Annual National Accounts Statistics  Quarterly GDP estimates  Back series of NAS (one year after new series is introduced)  Sources and Methods (one year after new series is introduced)  Input-Output Transactions Table (5-Yearly)  State-wise value of output of crops and livestock products th March, Beijing, China

Release Date of release 1. Advance Estimates of national income 7 th February 2. Revised Estimates of national income 31 st May 3. Estimates of GDP for Q1 (Apr-Jun) 30 th September 4. Estimates of GDP for Q2 (Jul-Sep) 30 th November 5. Estimates of GDP for Q3 (Oct-Dec) 28 th February 6. Estimates of GDP for Q4 (Jan-Mar) 31 st May 7. Quick Estimates of national income 31 st January th March, Beijing, China

 : Income & Expenditure Survey (Rounds 9- 14)  Schedule 1.1, specially designed for Income & Expenditure surveys, canvassed in Rounds 9-14  Approach to assessment of income: Collect data on Receipts and Disbursements of the household th March, Beijing, China

9 Framework of Receipts & Disbursements block (Sch.1.1: Income & Expenditure, NSS 10 th round) ReceiptsDisbursements A. Current account of enterprise A. Current account of enterprise B. Liquidation of assets B. Capital formation C. Transfer receipts C. Domestic expenditure D. Transfer payments very detailed block with 78 items of receipts and 78 items of disbursements. It was stipulated that the total receipts and total disbursements should tally 26-28th March, Beijing, China

10 19 th to 25 th rounds of NSS ( )  Data on receipts and disbursements of the household were collected in an Integrated Household Survey schedule.  the receipts and disbursements blocks were placed after detailed blocks on household consumer expenditure.  however, the receipts and disbursements blocks were much more condensed, with only 16 items each th March, Beijing, China

11 Experiences of Integrated Household Schedule affectedby collection from the same household.  The reporting of consumption expenditure could be affected by collection of data on income and savings from the same household. long questionnaire, informant fatigue.  Also, the integrated approach to data collection on income, expenditure and savings from the same household necessarily led to a long questionnaire, causing informant fatigue. lower estimates for consumer expenditure  Substantially lower estimates for consumer expenditure were obtained during the 19 th to 24 th rounds (in which the Integrated Household Survey schedule was canvassed) th March, Beijing, China

12 Objective Development of an appropriate methodology for conducting comprehensive surveys of household income 26-28th March, Beijing, China

13 Draw up two schedules.  Sch.1.1A: Income  Sch.1.1B: Consumption and Savings Divide sample households into 3 sets. Set I households: Canvass Sch.1.1A (Income) Set II households: Canvass Sch.1.1B (Consumption & Savings) Set III households: Canvass both Sch.1.1A & 1.1B 26-28th March, Beijing, China

14 Set of hhsSchedule canvassed Data collectedEstimate of income generated Set ISch.1.1AIncome (Y)Y Set IISch.1.1BConsumption (C), Saving (S) C+S Set IIISch.1.1A, Sch.1.1B Income (Y) Consumption (C), Saving (S) Y C+S 26-28th March, Beijing, China

15 Sample size  100 villages and 80 urban blocks (Total)  A sample of 24 households (three matched sets of 8 households each) were selected for survey from each sample village/block.  All estimates were generated for three sectors of population: rural (R), urban non-metropolitan (U-NM), and metropolitan (M) th March, Beijing, China

16 Sl. No.Source of income 1.Agriculture and allied activities 2.Non-agricultural household enterprises 3.Wages and salaries 4.Rent, dividend and interest 5.Other sources 26-28th March, Beijing, China

17 Sl. No. Component of savings 1.Savings in physical assets in agriculture and allied pursuits 2.Savings in physical assets in self-employment in non-agriculture 3.Net addition to stock of products of cultivation 4.Net addition to stock of products of mining and manufacturing 5.Net addition to stock of livestock and poultry 6.Savings in housing (residential plot & building) 7.Savings in financial assets 26-28th March, Beijing, China

18  Annual disposable income (in INR) per household: R: 5,100 U-NM: 9,900 M: 16,500  Over 10% of hhs in metropolitan cities had annual Y or C+S exceeding (in INR) 30,000.  But negative incomes (Y) were occasionally reported;  in rare cases, C+S was negative.  The difference (C+S)-Y was SMALLER (in % terms) for wage/salaried households than for the rest.  Among non-wage/non-salaried households, the difference (C+S)-Y was LARGER (in % terms) for cultivator households than for other households th March, Beijing, China

19 Rural sector (R)  From Set III hhs (both Y and C+S data collected), av.(Y) was 30% less than av.(C+S).  Using Y from Set I hhs and C+S from Set II hhs, av.(Y) was 40% less than av.(C+S). These differences were very clearly significant. Urban sector (both U-NM and M) Here Y and C+S were nearly equal and the small differences were not significant th March, Beijing, China

20  Overall ratio S/(C+S): R: 16-17% U-NM: 10% M: 15% considerable doubt on the data on savings collected in the survey, especially from the non-metropolis urban sector.  The savings ratios S/Y and S/(C+S) were negative, if not zero, for the poorest households in all three sectors.  there was concentration of savings in the upper per capita income brackets th March, Beijing, China

21  The design of schedules of enquiry could be improved.  Informants tended to report large liabilities incurred (especially loans taken) without reporting the asset formation that would be expected to have taken place in the same period.  More alertness was needed in fieldwork to detect such under-reporting.  it also revealed the problems of respondent resistance  These have noticed over time  Pilot survey suggested that further full-scale pilot surveys were needed for arriving at a satisfactory methodology for household income surveys.  However, no further surveys on income have been conducted since then th March, Beijing, China

th March, Beijing, China