都市發展與住宅可負擔力 Urban Development and Housing Affordability GCREC/AsRES*/ 住宅學會 * / 都市計劃學會 / 區域科學學會 / 地區發展學會 理事 (* 理事長 ) 內政部 區域計畫委員 馬來西亞 UTAR( 拉曼大學 ) MBA 國際評委 陳彥仲 (Yen-Jong Chen) 特聘教授 成功大學 都市計劃系 能源科技與策略研究中心 副主任 東華大學 經濟系

 Market ( 市 )─ places for goods exchanging  City ( 城 ) ─ Location for Activities and Capital Cumulation.  Society(Union,” 郊 ”) ─ ─ For administration and ex-/import activities Three Economic Reasons Scale Economy ( 規模經濟 ) Agglomeration ( 聚集經濟 ) Comparative Advantage ( 比較利益 )

1. Urban Growth as like Human Beings ---”City Beings ”(Shanghai Expo, 2010) ---”Urbanity” (as “personality” of human beings) 2. Urban Space Extending ─ due to Industrial Revolution More efficient Transportation: (bus, truck, train…)

3. Decline in downtown area 4. urban renewal / urban redevelopment/ urban revitalization/ urban regeneration 5. Globalization (climate, economy, culture,…)/Sustainable City --Hand down the city “alive” to next generation, and next… --Policies of TOD / Low CO2 / Green Living/Environment protection/Energy Consumption/… Q: What would happen if urban without planning?

 Life needs… “Housing is for living”  Architecture…  Land use planning  Landscape design  Space value creating…  Family life and culture…  Community /Organization…  Environment protecting…  Economic decision of consumption…  …also investment… …… Housing ≠ Real Estate

 Housing needs for households ( 區位、規模、品質 …)  Housing and land use control ( 地政、市地重劃 、都市更新 )  Housing market ( 景氣循環、 交易資訊 )  Pricing ( 租金、購屋價格、 PIR 、 affordability)  Financing ( 不動產貸款、 REITs 、補貼、以房養老 )  Housing Policies ( 住宅補貼、 國宅、社會住宅 )  Housing and building design ( 智能住宅, 高齡住宅 )  Housing and transportation (commuting) (MRT, TOD…)  Community, Environment, and Energy consumption  Urbanization …

7 Housing Affordability

Price 480 income 32 P/I 15.1 Price 443 income 87 P/I 5.07 Price 450 income 15 P/I 30.1 Price 510 income 58 P/I 8.8 Price 412 income 43 P/I 9.6 Taipei Beijing Singapore Tokyo Seoul 2014 PIR by cities ( Asia) 2014TaipeiTokyoBeijingSingaporeSeoul Housing Price Household Income P/I (in 1,000 US$) Some Housing Numbers…

9 Housing Affordability The household’s maximum price compare the expected house price the real house price no the affordability gap The gap of housing affordability Estimating the probability of the gap => affordability risk ?! or house price ≦＜ The Affordability Gap

10 Probability of the gap If ( - ) ＞ 0, then there exists housing affordability risk. Given the probability density function (p.d.f.) of housing price distribution, the probability of the affordability gap can be estimated, as shown in figure.