Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research An EXCEL-based software toolbox for stochastic fleet- based forecast.

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Presentation transcript:

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research An EXCEL-based software toolbox for stochastic fleet- based forecast. Per Sparre Danish Institute for Fisheries Research. Department of Marine Fisheries. ICES CM 2003/V:07

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research ICES CM 2003/V:07 Toolbox of Visual Basic routines EXCEL user-interface Mixed fisheries and assessment of the effect of management Deterministic and stochastic simulation. User-friendly software, Stand-alone ordinary ECEL-workbook Open source Visual Basic sub-routines, Can be inspected and modified by the user. The highest degree of transparency of code Comprehensive on-line help-facility and user’s manual. An EXCEL-based software toolbox for stochastic fleet-based forecast.

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research COMPONENTS OF THE TOOL-BOX (TEMAS *) a) ICES Prediction model (Basic model) combined with: b) A simple micro-economic model c) A model of fisher’s behaviour *) TEMAS Project: Technical Measures – Development of evaluation model and application in Danish fisheries.

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research Multi species Multi Fleet Multi Area

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research Note: This is not a commercial for Microsoft Office. (EXCEL has bugs by the thousands, and behave strangely! - but everybody has it)

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research VISUAL BASIC OPEN SOURCE – USER FRIENDLY CODE

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research Capacity Rules

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research SURVEY OF BEHAVIOUR RULES IN TEMAS 1Reaction to technical management measures 2Reaction to non-technical management measures 3Reaction to costs and prices. 4Reaction to the range and equipment of vessels. 5Reaction to availability of resources Trip-Related Behaviourshort term Structure-Related Behaviourlong term Reaction of fisheries advisers (ICES).

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research CHOICE COMPOSED OF TRADITION and CURRENT SITUATION General behaviour model: Random Utility Model Estimation procedure: General Logit model. Example of behaviour rule: Where to fish ?

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research E.g. quota management and effort management (Ulrich et al. 2002)

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research THE END