abcd AGEING POPULATION - Burden or Benefit? Demographic Trends Adrian Gallop Edinburgh 21 January 2002

AGEING IN THE UNITED KINGDOM WHERE ARE WE NOW AND HOW DID WE GET HERE?

Ageing population The main reasons for the ageing population structure of the UK population are:  Baby booms, followed by  Falling fertility rates  Falling mortality rates

 2000-based national population projections United Kingdom 2000 Small cohorts born during WWI Large cohorts born immediately after WWIVery small cohorts at start of WWIIPost WWII baby boom 1960’s baby boom Lowest fertility rate skip

 Total fertility rate, United Kingdom, 1951–2000

 Average achieved family size by age and year of birth of women  United Kingdom,

* CFS for cohorts born 28 years earlier  Period and cohort measures

* CFS for cohorts born 28 years earlier  Projecting fertility

 Expectation of life at birth according to death rates experienced in given years  United Kingdom,

 Proportion of persons surviving to successive ages, according to death rates experienced or projected  England and Wales,

 Effective annual rates of improvement in mortality between successive English Life Tables  Males

 Effective annual rates of improvement in mortality between successive English Life Tables  Females

Changes in mortality  ASMRs for under 15s halved for M & F  Little reduction for males (c10%)  Slowdown for females (c20%)  Greater reduction for males aged (c30%) than females (c20%)  Similar reductions for males and females aged 75 and over (c20%)

 Life expectancy at birth by social class – males (E&W)

 Life expectancy at age 65 by social class – males (E&W)

AGEING IN THE UNITED KINGDOM WHERE ARE WE GOING? Population projections for the UK

 Expectation of life at birth, United Kingdom,

 Expectation of life at birth according to mortality rates assumed for selected years

* CFS for cohorts born 28 years earlier  Projecting fertility

 Projecting migration Total net migration, United Kingdom

 2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2000

 2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2005

 2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2010

 2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2015

 2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2020

 2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2025

 2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2030

 2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2035

 2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2040

 2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2045

 2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2050

 2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2055

 2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2060

 2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2065

 2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2070

 Actual and projected population by broad age group, United Kingdom,

 Actual and projected age distribution, United Kingdom,

 Population under 16 and over pension age, United Kingdom,

 Actual and projected dependency ratios, United Kingdom,

 Actual and projected components of elderly dependency ratio  United Kingdom,

COMPARISON OF TRENDS IN UK TO THOSE IN OTHER COUNTRIES

Source: United Nations  Expectation of life at birth for males,

Source: United Nations  Expectation of life at birth for females,

Expectation of life at age 60 EU countries  For males, UK lay 8 th equal with 18.8 years  highest 20.3 years - Greece  lowest 17.8 years - Ireland  For females, UK lay 12 th with 22.5 years  highest 25.1 years - France  lowest 21.5 years - Ireland

Source: United Nations  Percentage increase in numbers aged 65 & over,

Source: United Nations  Total period fertility rates in Europe,

Source: United Nations  Number of pensioners per 1000 “workers”,

Source: United Nations  Number of pensioners and children per 1000 “workers”,

SUMMARY

 Actual and projected population estimates and dependency ratios, United Kingdom,

DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING  falling fertility  increasing expectation of life  baby boomer bulge in some countries  increasing elderly population  increasing numbers of very elderly  deteriorating dependency ratios in long term  ageing working population in many countries