Fourth International Riga Family Forum Igor Beloborodov (Russia ) PhD in Sociology, Director of Demographic research Institute (Moscow) Demographics in a context of statehood and nation

Demographic Instability Replacement level = 2.1 children born per woman Total Fertility Rate = 1,4 children in Eastern Europe born per woman The birth rate in Eastern Europe is 1.5 times lower than need for the replacement of generations

Tunisia Total Fertility Rate China Morocco 2.19 Iran Non-European countries 1.87 Azerbaijan 1,92 South Korea 1,23 European countries Global fertility decline 1.65 Total Fertility Rate Belgium Ireland France Netherlands United Kingdom 1.91 Latvia 1,33

With a low birth rate the population is shrinking twice in years

Government views on the level of fertility The number of countries that viewed their fertility levels as too low Year Number of Counties

Government views on the level of fertility The number of countries that viewed their fertility levels as too high Year Number of Counties

Число детей у российских лидеров

No kids, no problem?

Международный Валютный Фонд: долголетие – это риск… ● Увеличение продолжительности жизни связано с финансовыми издержками ● Если средняя продолжительность жизни возрастет к 2050 году на 3 года больше, чем ожидается в настоящее время, и без того огромные издержки, связанные со старением населения, повысятся на 50 процентов. ● Для нейтрализации финансовых последствий риска долгожительства необходимо то или иное сочетание повышения пенсионного возраста (законодательного или добровольного), увеличения взносов в пенсионные планы и уменьшения размера выплат

Low Fertility and Pension Reform France Latvia Ukraine Italy Germany Spain The retirement age was raised TFR 2,0 1,15 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,4 Going to raise the retirement age Moldova Belgium Austria Greece Netherlands Sweden TFR 1,3 1,8 1,5 1,75 1,9

With the rapid growth of the emerging markets, the global economy is experiencing a seismic shift. In this piece, we argue that this shift is set to continue. By 2050, the collective size of the economies we currently deem 'emerging' will have increased five-fold and will be larger than the developed world. And 19 of the 30 largest economies will be from the emerging world. At the same time, there will be a marked decline in the economic might – and potentially the political clout – of many small population, ageing, rich economies in Europe. Demographic challenges

Age structure comparison in different countries

Change in working population between 2010 and 2050

Демографическое оружие К 2050 г. демографические потери Германии составят 8 млн. человек К 2050 г. прирост населения в Индонезии составит 54 млн. человек

THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION Children – are not the problem, Children – are the solution(!)