Federal Efforts to Reduce Oil Imports and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Transportation Greg Dotson Office of Rep. Henry A. Waxman House Government Reform Committee, Minority Staff

Oil Dependence/Global Warming Inextricably Linked Tom Toles, Washington Post (Apr. 3, 2006).

Petroleum Demand, Imports, Carbon Emissions Increasing (EIA)

Petroleum Demand/Imports Projected to Increase (EIA)

Federal Efforts Over the Last 6 Years Rhetorical recognition of problem Administration and U.S. Senate The House of Representatives more mixed Recognition of problems with dependence on foreign oil Largely ignored global warming Refusal to take meaningful action

Administration has not Addressed Oil Dependence/Global Warming Administration set a nonbinding goal to allow actual U.S. emissions of global warming pollution to rise by 14 percent by 2012.

Administration has not Addressed Oil Dependence/Global Warming Administration has opposed any constraints on greenhouse gases or the use of oil. Declared CO2 not a pollutant Rejected Kyoto Protocol Rejected targets and timeframes for renewable energy at WSSD Denied petition to regulate CO2 Opined that State programs to reduce CO2 emissions from automobiles are preempted Opposed proposals for energy bill to increase CAFE stds or reduce oil demand Has not (yet) granted CA waiver

Positive Efforts Outweighed Modified CAFE for light duty trucks Increased by 1.8 mpg by 2011, but approx. 1/3 of projected savings due to increasing fuel prices Extended dual fuel loophole No increase in CAFE for passenger automobiles Supported tax credits for hybrids Dwarfed by early tax incentives for SUV’s weighing more than 6,000 pounds

Congress Failed to Require an Increase in Vehicle Efficiency 2001 – proposal to increase CAFE stds defeated, proposal to increase CAFE stds defeated, – proposal to increase CAFE stds defeated,

Congress Considered Other Proposals to Reduce Oil Demand New framework that gained some traction -- Congress sets clear goal of reducing oil demand with iterative process by Administration to achieve goal over time. Promoted rational process by Administration Decisions could be made on the record Promoted scrutiny of oil use throughout economy, not just in light duty vehicles, which comprise ~40% of oil use.

Senate Rejected More Aggressive Proposal to Reduce Oil Demand Cantwell Amendment would set goal of reducing need for imported oil by 40 percent by 2025 from projected levels. Rejected % Dems supported, 94% Repubs opposed

Administration Opposed and Congress Rejected Less Aggressive Proposal to Reduce Oil Demand Senate twice passed an amendment to require a plan to reduce oil demand by a million barrels per day within a decade. House rejected a similar amendment on a vote of Administration strongly objected to the provision and it was dropped in conference.

EPACT 05 Established Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) 4 billion gallons/yr in 2006 –> 7.5 billion gallons/yr in National Corn Growers Association and U.S. EPA say demand for renewable fuels is already projected to outpace RFS requirements. 27 ethanol facilities under construction. Scores more on the drawing board. Almost all planned to be coal-fired, negating greenhouse gas benefits.

Advanced Energy Initiative Response to “addicted to oil” in State of the Union President said it will result in replacing “more than 75 percent of our oil imports from the Middle East by 2025.” $118 million over several years to fund research for ethanol, batteries, and hydrogen. Overall, cuts vehicle technology research at DOE.

Advanced Energy Initiative in Context

U.S. All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices (EIA)

Daily Cost of Imported Oil

Groups Urging Action Historically, environmental groups have taken the lead. Ethanol lobby has had a role. New groups add new voices Set America Free Energy Future Coalition Apollo Alliance

Legislation Gathering Support H.R Safe Climate Act (Waxman) – Adopts CA car emission standards at federal level and establishes declining carbon cap – 110 cosponsors. H.R Progress Act – provides government incentives to promote biofuels and enhanced vehicle efficiency H.R Fuel Choices for American Security Act – establish planning process for reducing oil demand, promotes ethanol, requires flex fuel vehicles H.R.5372 Biofuel Act – accelerate requirements for ethanol production, require E85 pumps

110 th Congress High level of interest in Congress in global warming and oil dependence that hasn’t previously been experienced. National focus on state and local actions Media attention

Conclusion No significant progress adopting policies in recent years. However, support appears to be growing for federal action.

As California Goes, So Goes the Nation? Tom Toles, Washington Post (Sept. 1, 2006)