ATLSS Spatially Explicit Species Index (SESI) Models E. Jane Comiskey, Mark R. Palmer Donald L. DeAngelis, Louis J. Gross

ATLSS SESI Models What is a SESI model? Spatially Explicit – Each uses a GIS representation of the Greater Everglades region. Species Index – Each indicates the dynamic effect of hydrological conditions upon biota as represented by a 0.0 – 1.0 index. Models – Are developed and used within a modular framework. All models share the same software, input and output foundation.

ATLSS SESI Models What are they used for? Provide a simple means of estimating the relative impact of hydrological conditions upon biota. To encode the knowledge of field biologists. As a “stepping stone” to developing more complex demographic and individual-based models. To provide input into other models.

ATLSS SESI Models How are they built? Field observations Historical data and observations Field ecologist, ATLSS modelers Habitat/Model rules

ATLSS SESI Models Sparrows prefer dry marl dominated by Muhlenbergia or similar grass Exclude cells < 15% suitable habitat Successful nesting cycle requires 45 days of dry conditions Abort nesting cycle if surface water depth > 15 centimeters Observations and historical data Habitat/Model rules : Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow

ATLSS SESI Models Wading bird habitat/model rules as software design Available for all SESI Models Can be used to reproduce the software

ATLSS SESI Models Insert model design into ATLSS SESI framework Provides a uniform foundation Saves time and money

ATLSS SESI Models Output of American alligator model

ATLSS SESI Models Output of Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow model

ATLSS SESI Models Output of long legged wading bird model

ATLSS SESI Models Output of short legged wading bird model

ATLSS SESI Models Output of white-tailed deer model

ATLSS SESI Models How are the models evaluated? Field ecologist or modeler: evaluate output ATLSS modelers: modify and rerun Experience Historical Data Comments Comparison maps Calibration data 1979 to 1995

ATLSS SESI Models What models have been built? American alligator Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Long-legged and short-legged wading birds Snail kite White-tailed deer Everglades and slough crayfish Apple snail

ATLSS SESI Models How have the models been used? South Florida Water Mgmt. District ATLSS staff Hydrology scenario Scientists Managers Stakeholders Internet Public This process was repeated for each scenario evaluation. Comparison maps and write-ups Comparison maps and write-ups Internet

ATLSS SESI Models Additional current applications Models, especially the wading bird models, are being used to analyze climate change scenarios. Output from the American alligator model is being used as input to the American alligator spatially explicit stage-structured model.

ATLSS SESI Models Current and future directions High accuracy elevation data (HAED) will enhance the current High Resolution Topography model. Upgrade models to use the most recent Florida FGAP vegetation data. Create a production run framework that allows users to run the models from their PC using a World Wide Web interface.

ATLSS SESI Models What next? Expand current evaluation activities to include new data sets of species field information and calibration water years of 1965 through Data sets include nesting success for sparrows, alligators, and snail kites, as well as apple snail and crayfish densities. Incorporate new models, e.g. empirical fish model (Trexler).

ATLSS SESI Models Ongoing model evaluation procedure Ecologists ATLSS modelers Comments Raw data New data sets, recent observations PC-based evaluation tool ATLSS evaluation interface Parameter settings Model updates

ATLSS SESI Models ATLSS evaluation interface Uses expanded calibration hydrology data set. Only authorized users will have access. Must track the parameter settings for each run. Requires close collaboration between model developers and those validating the models. Web-based interface.

ATLSS SESI Models Framework for model use SFWMD ATLSS production interface Hydrology scenario, Users description, identifier Comparison maps, movies, raw data Scenario ID, model name ATLSS data viewer

ATLSS SESI Models ATLSS production interface Only authorized users may run the models. General users may view/download the data. Web-based interface Uses the ATLSS data viewer to analyze the model results in detail. Provide an online forum for scenario evaluations.