Post Enumeration Survey of Indonesia Population Census Directorate for Development of Census and Survey Methodology May 10, 2010

 Non sampling error always exists in data collection.  This error is bias source which is caused by field enumerator and respondent responses. 2

 Field staff error: coverage error : under coverage or over coverage, and content error  While, respondent error: response error which is part of content error. 3

 The Indonesia Badan Pusat Statistik (Statistics Indonesia, BPS) is conducting the 2010 Population Census in May of In order to evaluate the quality of the 2010 Census, the BPS will conduct a Post Enumeration Survey (PES) in a sample of census enumeration blocks (CBs) about one month following the census enumeration. 4

 The objective of the PES will be to evaluate both the census coverage as well as the content errors in the census data  Census coverage indicators (i.e., omission rate, net coverage error rate) Reliable estimates for 33 provinces Based on dual system estimation  Measure census content errors Cross-tabulate census and PES responses for each variable, using records for matched persons Indices of inconsistency – measure of response error 5

PES SP Was not designed to estimate the population 2. Sample size: 4 provinces ( 11 regencies/cities) 40 census blocks 3. Without field reconciliation 6 PES SP Designed to estimate the population (Province level) 2. Sample size: 33 provinces 1200 census blocks 3. With field reconciliation

PES SP2010 will be conducted in: 33 provinces census blocks (CBs) Coverage 7

8  ActivitySchedule 1. Master Nat’l Instructors WorkshopWeek III April Document DeliveryMay Instructors TrainingWeek I June Field Enumerator TrainingWeek II June HH & Population EnumerationWeek III-IV June Matching Coordinator & Data Processing Briefing Week III-IV June Desk-match) HH & population Week I July Reconciliation visit Week II July Final Matching Week III July Data Processing in BPS Province July-September Doc & data delivery to BPS HQAugust-September Statistical Counting September Data Analysis & report writing September Publication printing October 2010 Activity Time Table

Sample allocation: Proportional to square root of population Min 24 CBs; Max 80 CBs per province Sample Allocation 9

One Stage PPS, size: estimated number of household from census mapping ( KK ), Urban/Rural as implicit stratification variable Exception for Provinces of Maluku, Maluku Utara, Papua & Papua Barat: Two stage sampling: 1.Select 6 districts 2.Select 4 CBs per district Selection of CBs Sample 10

1.Field enumerator training (3 effective days) - Participants are CP2010 best enumerators 2.Matcher training (2effective days) - Matcher from BPS Province 3.Data entry training (3 effective days) - Persons form BPS Province Training in BPS Province 11

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 Headquarter General Person In Charge (PIC) is head of BPS HQ, helped by Deputy of MIS. Technical PIC is Director for Development of Census & Survey Methodology.  Province General PIC is head of BPS Province. Technical PIC is Head of IPDS BPS Province 13

 District General PIC is head of BPS Reg/City Technical PIC is Head of IPDS BPS Reg/City 14 Diagram 2. Field Organization of PES PC2010

 Field A team consists of 1team coordinator & 2 enumerators. Team Coord is Kepala Seksi Or Coord of SubDist Statistics (KSK) or staff of BPS Reg/City with best capabilities, Enumerator is statistical partner of staff BPS Reg/City appointed. Team coord coordinated with KSK for filed enumeration and responsible to Kasie IPDS. Since PES is part of Population Census, then Kasie IPDS should coordinate with Kasie Statistik Sosial. 15

 Documents for training & field enumeration will be delivered by BPS HQ to BPS Province c.q. Kabid IPDS.  BPS Province will distribute these documents needed by enumerators to BPS Reg/City c.q. Kasi IPDS.  BPS Reg/City will distribute documents to team coord, next team cooed will distribute it to enumerators as much as needed for field enumeration. 16

 BPS Reg/City have to keep eye on documents of enumeration whether it have been given to team coord on time, whether team coord have given the cleaned document to BPS Reg/City.  After document checking in BPS Reg/City is done, document must be delivered to BPS Province c.q. Kabid IPDS immediately.  All PES documents will be kept in BPS Province until final report of Population Census 2010 is released. 17

1 month following census enumeration All census documents already in BPS Province to maintain independency Max 6 weeks after census: 1.Reducing recall error 2.Reducing level of population movement PES Enumeration 18

Enumeration by team: 1.One team consists of 1 team coordinator and two enumerators 2.Workload: 2-4 CBs per team PES Enumeration (2) 19

PES enumerator should be independent of the census operation PES enumerator assigned to different CBs from his/her census working areas. PES questionnaires are designed to obtain information on current residents of (de jure) and persons who moved out after census (out- movers). PES Enumeration (3) 20

Important to account for moving status of population between census and PES Current PES residents: 1.Non-movers 2.Persons who are recorded after census a)In-mover b)Out-of-scope (born after census) Out-movers (moved or died after census) Moving Status of Enumerated Persons 21

 Procedure C1 described in reference manuals  Match non-movers and out-movers Easier to find in same sample CB  Count in-movers More accurate coverage  Estimate matched movers Apply match rate of out-movers to number of in- movers

Will be used one for all: 1.HH and population enumeration 2.Matching of hh/population 3.Field reconciliation Shading Area  will be taken from census questionnaire (Form SP2010-C1) Consists of three main blocks (of total 9 blocks): 1.Block IV  Non-mover and in-mover 2.Block V  Persons moved/died after census 3.Block VI  Persons enumerated in census not in PES Questionnaire SP2010 PES1 23

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For household enumerated in census not in PES Questionnaire SP2010 PES2 28

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30 SP2010 PES1 SP2010-C1 HH enume rated in PES & Censu s HH ENUME RATED IN CENSU S NOT IN PES HH Status in SP200 PES1 = Non-match FILL SP2010 PES2 FINISH PROBABL Y MATCH? PERSONS INITIAL MATCHING FIELD RECONCILIATI ON PERSON FINAL MATCHING No Yes No

 Two-way matching between all households and persons (non-movers and out-movers) enumerated in census and PES for sample CBs.  HH and persons enumerated in PES coded as not matched are treated as census omissions in PES estimation procedures. 31

 Matching documents PES and census will be conducted in BPS PROVINCE. a. 1 matcher will match 3 CBs b. Matcher is staff of BPS Province  Quality control of matching operation will be better.  Documents need to be sent back to BPS Reg/City for reconciliation visit 32

 First level of matching – households  Availability of census stickers for most households will make matching more effective and faster  First step – match households based on census sticker information  Next – remaining households matched based on names of heads of household Possible to use PES listing sheets to help with matching

 After first part of household matching, remaining households matched based on names of individual persons  Households considered matched if at least one person matched  Multiple households can be matched Matched 1 to 2 or more Matched 2 or more to 1

 7 (seven) possibilities found in initial matching of household: 1. Matched 1 to 1 2. Matched 1 to 2 or more 3. Matched 2 or more to 1 4. Non-match 5. In-mover 6. Out-of-scope 7. Possible match 35

 Only for hh that is matched  Matching of persons only done for: Non-movers Out-movers (moved or died after census)  Matching establish numbers of rules, allow some flexibility in range of ages especially for older persons. 36

 Generally, person will be match in matched hh. Non-movers and out-movers will be matched with person in census.  Non-movers are persons who are listed in Block IV Form SP2010 PES1, out-movers are persons who are listed in Block V Form SP2010 PES1. 37

 Possible match  name is consistent and some other characteristics match, but not all When matcher consider there is a chance the PES and census persons match.  Matching coordinator may convert some possible matches to final matches before reconciliation 38

 In assinging person match status, matcher has match 4 variables of PES & census: 1. name of person, 2. sex, 3. relationship to head of hh, and, 4. age.  Matcher has to establish rules in assigning person initial match status. 39

40 No.CriteriaConditionalInitial Match Status I.4 variables are the sameMatch II. 3 variables are the same, one variable is different: a. SexPossible match b. Namewithin toleranceMatch Out of tolerancePossible match c. Agewithin toleranceMatch Out of tolerancePossible match d. Relationship to head of household Not contradictoryMatch ContradictoryPossible match

41 No. CriteriaConditionalInitial Match Status III.2 variables are the same: Name OUGHT TO BE THE SAME a. Name & sexPossible match b. Name & Relationship to the head of household Possible match c. Name & AgePossible match d. OthersNon Match IV.1 variable is the same: a.NamePossible match b. OthersNon Match V.None of 4 variables is the same Non match

42 Tabel 4.3 Tolerance for Variable: Name, Relationship to head of hh, and Age No.VariableTolerance 1Name  Minor spelling difference that does not change the sound. Sound is phonetically the same but the spelling differs.  Shortening of names and use of initial and nicknames in common use will be considered agreements, for example, Tony for Antonio, Fata for Fatimah, Ed for Eduardo, or Ben for Benikana.

43 No.VariableTolerance 2Relationship to head of hh  Not contradictory (see Table 4.4).  For example PES may show the relationship as head, spouse head, daughter, and mother; census may show the mother as head, PES head as son and all the other household members as other relatives. In this example, Census and PES entries are not contradictory. 3Age:Tolerance Under 15 years+ 2 tahun 15 – 29 years+ 4 tahun 30 – 44 years+ 7 tahun 45 – 64 years+ 10 tahun 65 years or older+ 15 tahun

44 Tabel 4.4 Changes of Relationship to Head of HH Between PES & Census RELATIONSHIP TO HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD PES Head of HH Spou se Child Adopt ed/St ep child Son/ dau ghte r-in- law Grand child Parent s/Pare nt-in- law Others family Housem aid Oth ers Cen sus 1Head of HH  2Spouse  3Child  4Adopted/Step child  5Son/daughter-in-law  6Grandchild  7 Parents/Parent-in- law  8Others family  9Housemaid  0Others  Notes:  : not contradictory  : Contradictory

 Reconciliation visit is critical part of PES methodology  Necessary to follow up all households and persons enumerated in the census but not in the PES Determine whether each household and person was correctly enumerated in the census Erroneously enumerated persons subtracted from census population in the estimation procedures  Follow up cases of possible matches to determine final match status

 The objectives of reconciliation visit is not to make any correction to the result of census or PES enumeration (because this would break the assumption of independency), but only to verify information which have been gathered.  To maintain independency between PES and census, enumerator is not allowed to add person or hh, or to change demographic characteristics of person/hh, either in census or in PES questionnaire. 46

After reconciliation visit, there are no more cases of ”possible match”. All outcomes will be mutually exclusive. 47

PES Census EnumeratedOmittedTotal EnumeratedMN 12 NPNP OmittedN 21 N 22 N2.N2. TotalNCNC N. 2 NTNT RM = proportion of matched person from PES data Asumption: PES and Census are independent.

 Necessary to attach weights to the PES data for estimates to be representative  Weights based on inverse of probability of selection  Weights will vary by stratum and CB  Weights may be adjusted based on final census results

The total census population correctly enumerated ( ) is estimated by subtracting an estimate of the census erroneously enumerated population from the PES data (based on the E-sample),, from the official census figure for the total population. Census Population Correctly Enumerated = where is the official census total population 50

The PES results will be used to evaluate the census coverage errors, but they will probably will not be used to adjust the official results from the census. Dual System Estimator of the Total Population = estimation of total population 51

Net Census Undercount Rate = estimation of total population = Net Census Undercount Rate 52

PES estimate of the total population [ ] = Weighted estimate of non-movers plus in- movers enumerated by the PES. PES Estimate of the Total Population 53 The matched population is estimated as

1.Preliminary estimate of Once the official census population ( ) is available, the estimate of could then be ratio-adjusted as: 2.The final estimate will the be used to calculate the final net census undercount rate ( ), using the formula specified previously. The Dual System Estimates = weighted estimate of matched population + census correctly enumerated population (missed by PES) + census erroneously enumerated population = PES survey estimate of the total population enumerated in census 54

Based on the data for matched persons: Non-movers, and Out-movers Census Content Error Evaluation 55

 Evaluating Censuses of Population and Housing, U.S. Census Bureau, 1985  Design and Implementation of a Post- Enumeration Survey: Developing Country Example, U.S. Census Bureau, August 1993  POPSTAN (A Case Study for the 1980 Censuses of Population and Housing), Parts A, B and D, U.S. Census Bureau, 1979

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