Using The Short Fuse Composite to Forecast Severe Convection: Part II – “The Next Generation,” Updating the Technique By Jim Johnson & Mike Umscheid NWS.

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Presentation transcript:

Using The Short Fuse Composite to Forecast Severe Convection: Part II – “The Next Generation,” Updating the Technique By Jim Johnson & Mike Umscheid NWS Dodge City, KS

“Next generation” Short Fuse Composite (SFC)  Objective analysis routines NWS AWIPS MSAS and LAPS  Gridded display software NWS-FSL Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE)  Updated techniques Low-level Lapse Rate replaces “Cap” parameter as convective initiation tool

Components of the SFC  Surface Moisture Flux Convergence Calculated from hourly MSAS grids (g/kg/hr * 100)  Potential Temperature Advection Native pot. temp. adv. grid from hourly LAPS (K/hr * 100)  CAPE and ThetaE CAPE- Native grid from hourly LAPS (J/kg) ThetaE- Native grid from hourly LAPS (K)  Low Level Lapse Rate (0 to 2.5km AGL) Calculated from hourly LAPS grids (C/km * 10)

The Charts weather.gov/ddc/short.html

“Threat Area” Components axis of highest moisture flux convergence Downwind of positive pot. temp. axis within axis of greatest surface based instability

Threat Area: 19 Aug 2000 UTC 3 components from Chart 1 SB Conv. Inhib component from Chart 2

19 Aug 2005: Great Bend Tornadoes SFC Threat Area Analysis 2000 UTC © Henry Diehl with permission Just northeast of Great Bend around 2120 UTC

A few more 2005 cases...  April 10 (local tornado outbreak) “cold core” upper low setup with advancing dry intrusion  June 9 (local tornado outbreak) Traditional southwest flow setup ahead of broad upper trough  July 3 (long-lived monster supercell) Elevated supercell transitioning to surface based supercell

Threat Area: 10 Apr 1800 UTC Radar imagery 1904 UTC 1900 UTC weak tornado west of Scott State Lake 3 components from Chart 1

Threat Area: 10 Apr 2000 UTC 3 components from Chart 1 Radar imagery 2059 UTC Multiple tornadoes from 2 storms in Trego County from 2135 to 2205 UTC

Threat Area: 10 Apr 2200 UTC Radar imagery 2259 UTC 3 components from Chart 1 Gorham-Russell Tornadic Supercell (large tornado at 2308 UTC) Toulon-Catherine Tornadic Supercell (large tornado crosses I-70 at 2252 UTC)

Threat Area: 9 Jun 1800 UTC Satellite imagery 1932 UTC 3 components from Chart 1 Convective Initiation

Threat Area: 9 Jun 2000 UTC Large Tornadic Supercell – “Hill City” tornado 2120 to 2148 UTC rated F2 3 components from Chart 1 Radar imagery 2101 UTC © Eric Nguyen with permission

Threat Area: 9 Jun 2100 UTC Large Tornadic Supercell – “Zurich-Stockton” tornadoes 2225 to 2240 UTC New Supercells Developing Radar imagery 2201 UTC 3 components from Chart 1 © Eric Nguyen with permission

Threat Area: 9 Jun 2200 UTC Large Tornadic Supercell – “Stockton” tornado 2257 to 2306 UTC rated F1 Radar imagery 2301 UTC Tornadic Supercell – “Trego Center” tornado 2300 to 2310 UTC rated F3 Tornadic Supercell – several tornadoes between 2330 and 2400 UTC 3 components from Chart 1 © Amos Magliocco with permission

Threat Area: 3 Jul 1700 UTC Radar imagery 1803 UTC Chart 1 Chart 2 Baseball size 1830 and 1855 UTC in Rush County… no wind reports

Threat Area: 3 Jul 1900 UTC Radar imagery 2002 UTC Chart 1 Chart 2 Golfball size hail numerous reports + 70mph winds 1925 to 2015 UTC in Barton-Rice Counties.

Threat Area: 3 Jul 2100 UTC Radar imagery 2230 UTC Chart 1 Chart 2 3 tornado rpts, 2 golfball or larger hail rpts, and numerous wind damage rpts from est. 80 to 90mph winds to 2330 UTC

Future Work  Network of local office SFC Operational version 1.0 on AWIPS LAD NWS Goodland, KS first office outside of DDC to implement  Improvements Web-based looping feature Chart 3: Empirical “Threat Area” development? NWS DDC Short Fuse Composite website –

Questions & Comments? Thank You! © Mike Umscheid