Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council Generating Resource Advisory Committee Meeting Portland, OR January 22, 2009 Northwest Power and Conservation Council

2 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Outline 1.Recap of Major AURORA Updates 2.Update of Regional Portfolio Standard (RPS) Resource Development 3.Partial Update of New Generating Resource Options 4.Forecast Wholesale Power Market Prices

3 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Major AURORA Updates Reduction in the number of load-resource zones used to model the Western Interconnect  Updated transmission links between the modeled load-resource zones Updated demand forecasts for each of the load-resource zones Updated fuel price forecasts for each of the zones  Updated hydro condition modeling for the Northwest zones Updated inventory of existing generating resources in each of the zones Updated estimates of future Regional Portfolio Standard resource development by zone Updated inventory of candidate resources for future development by zone  Improved dispatch parameter for combined cycle combustion turbines  Updated carbon dioxide price forecasts

4 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Higher Natural Gas Prices Medium Long-term Trend Forecasts for PNW Zones

5 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Carbon Dioxide Emission Prices All Zones

6 Northwest Power and Conservation Council WECC Load & Resource Balance – Energy Economic Dispatch Basis Under Average Hydro Conditions

7 Northwest Power and Conservation Council PNW Load & Resource Balance – Energy Economic Dispatch Basis Under Average Hydro Conditions

8 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Incremental RPS Energy by State

9 Northwest Power and Conservation Council CA Incremental RPS Energy Mix Target First Achieved in 2015

10 Northwest Power and Conservation Council WA Incremental RPS Energy Mix Full Target Achievement

11 Northwest Power and Conservation Council OR Incremental RPS Energy Mix Full Target Achievement

12 Northwest Power and Conservation Council MT Incremental RPS Energy Mix Full Target Achievement

13 Northwest Power and Conservation Council WECC New AURORA Resource Energy by Technology

14 Northwest Power and Conservation Council PNW New AURORA Resource Energy by Technology

15 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Energy Summary Preliminary Results – More Resources Options in Future Runs “Forced” Incremental RPS Resources Additions –WECC:12,500 MWa by 2030 –PNW: 2,070 MWa by 2030 –RPS Resource Technologies Vary by State –CA Begins to Achieve Targets in 2015 –MT, OR, and WA Achieve All RPS Targets “Simulated” New AURORA Resource Additions –WECC:25,000 MWa by 2030 –PNW: 2,430 MWa by 2030 –PNW Additions begin in 2029

16 Northwest Power and Conservation Council WECC Load & Resource Balance – Capacity Sustained Peaking Capability

17 Northwest Power and Conservation Council PNW Load & Resource Balance – Capacity Sustained Peaking Capability

18 Northwest Power and Conservation Council WECC Incremental RPS Capacity and Peak Contribution

19 Northwest Power and Conservation Council WECC New AURORA Resource Capacity by Technology

20 Northwest Power and Conservation Council WECC New AURORA Resource Peak Contribution by Technology

21 Northwest Power and Conservation Council PNW New AURORA Resource Capacity by Technology

22 Northwest Power and Conservation Council PNW Total RPS and New AURORA Resource Capacity

23 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Capacity Summary Preliminary Results – More Resources Options in Future Runs “Forced” Incremental RPS Resources Additions –WECC:37,800 MW by 2030 –PNW: 6,370 MW by 2030 –30% Average Contribution to Meeting Planning Reserve Margin “Simulated” New AURORA Resource Additions –WECC:61,640 MW by 2030 –PNW: 5,590 MW by 2030 –PNW Additions begin in 2029 –70% Average Contribution to Meeting Planning Reserve Margin

24 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Historic Mid-C Average Monthly On- and Off-Peak Prices Source: IntercontinentalExchange (ICE)

25 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Forecast Mid-C Average Monthly On- and Off- Peak Prices AO_6P_ _NEWRES_HD

26 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Impact of AURORA Updates on Mid-C Wholesale Power Price Forecast Mid-C Power Prices (2006$/MWh) Interim Price Forecast Updated Demand/ Fuel Updated RPS Updated New Resources

27 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Next Steps  Updated transmission links between the modeled load- resource zones  Updated hydro condition modeling for the Northwest zones  Improved dispatch parameter for combined cycle combustion turbines  Updated carbon dioxide price forecasts

28 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Impact of AURORA Updates on Mid-C Wholesale Power Price Forecast

29 Northwest Power and Conservation Council WECC Resource Expansion – Energy Economic Dispatch

30 Northwest Power and Conservation Council PNW Resource Expansion – Energy Economic Dispatch

31 Northwest Power and Conservation Council WECC Load-Resource Balance – Energy Draft 6 th Plan/ Existing and Incremental RPS Resources Only

32 Northwest Power and Conservation Council PNW Load-Resource Balance – Energy Draft 6 th Plan/ Existing and Incremental RPS Resources Only

33 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Forecast Mid-C Average Monthly ‘Flat’ Prices AO_6P_ _NEWRES_HD

34 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Higher Coal Prices Medium Long-term Trend Forecasts for PNW Zones

35 Northwest Power and Conservation Council PNW Incremental Installed Wind Capacity

36 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Northern CA Medium Long-term Trend Forecasts for PNW Zones

37 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Incremental RPS Capacity by State

38 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Incremental RPS Peak Contribution by State Axis Changed