Update on the Canadian Operational Network of Coupled Environmental PredicTion Systems (CONCEPTS) H. Ritchie 1,4, G. Smith 1, J.-M. Belanger 1, C. Beaudoin 1, P. Pellerin 1, M. Buehner 1, A. Caya 1, F. Roy 2, F. Dupont 1, M. Faucher 2, T. Carrieres 3, S. Desjardins 4, Y. Lu 5, F. Davidson 6, D. Lefaivre 7, …., J. Chanut, M. Drevillon 8, B. Tranchant 8, G. Garric 8 and C.-E. Testut 8 1 Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada 2 Centre Météorologique Canadien, Environment Canada 3 Canadian Ice Service, Environment Canada 4 National Laboratory for Marine and Coastal Meteorology, Environment Canada 5 Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada 6 Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre, Fisheries and Oceans Canada 7 Institut Maurice-Lamontagne, Fisheries and Oceans Canada 8 Mercator-Océan, Toulouse, France GOVST SMRCP-TT, Paris, 16 November, 2011

Page 2 – October 26, 2015 Outline CONCEPTS Initiative NEMO Ice-Ocean Modelling Global Ice-ocean Prediction System Regional Ice-ocean Prediction System Summary

Page 3 – October 26, 2015 CONCEPTS Several new coupled systems under development as part of CONCEPTS –Canadian Operational Network of Coupled Environmental Prediction Systems Tri-departmental collaboration –To develop coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean forecasting systems Model development –Coupling GEM to NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) Collaboration with Mercator –French operational oceanographic group CONCEPTS

Page 4 – October 26, 2015 The Need for a Canadian Ice-Ocean Forecasting Capability Weather prediction (coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice systems) Sea ice prediction e.g. CCG: seal hunt, navigation Fisheries and aquaculture management Increased understanding of biological field observations Attribution and mitigation of regional climate change impacts Risk assessment for extreme events (sea level, waves, currents) Search and Rescue, dispersion of pollutants Canada requires ice-ocean forecasts and information services for:

Page 5 – October 26, 2015 CONCEPTS Aims: –Development of Regional and Global Coupled Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean Forecasting Systems –Global coupled medium-to-monthly forecasting system: ▪Initially: produce 10 day global ice-ocean forecasts –1/4° resolution NEMO-ORCA025 ice-ocean model –Initialized with Mercator SAM2 ocean analyses and CIS/MRD ice analyses ▪Couple to CMC’s Global Deterministic Prediction System ▪Monthly forecasting system using 1° resolution NEMO and CMC’s Global Ensemble Prediction System –Regional short-term forecasting system ▪Domain covers N. Atlantic + Arctic at 1/12° resolution ▪Couple to CMC Regional Deterministic Prediction System ▪Build on developments made by CNOOFS

October 26, Altimeter ARGO Ocean modelling & Data Assimilation Coupled Global NEMO/GEM General goal of CONCEPTS

Page 7 – October 26, 2015 Ice-ocean modelling using NEMO Global 1/4° resolution –Medium range forecasting Global 1° resolution –Monthly-to-seasonal forecasting N. Atlantic and Arctic 1/12° –Short-to-medium regional forecasting Great lakes 2km –Short term forecasting 1/4° Global 1° Global 1/12° N. Atlantic and Arctic

CMC SST analysis: Data assimilated AMSR-E (passive microwave) retrievals from RSS gridded on a 0.25 grid (65,000 /day) NAVO (infrared) retrievals for NOAA-18, NOAA-19 and METOP-A (45,000 /day from each source) A/ATSR (infrared) retrievals from ESA (16,000 /day) Proxy SSTs based on the CMC ice analysis (9,000/ day) Ships (1500 /day) Drifters (1200 /day) Moored buoys (200 /day)

Comparison of zonally averaged analysis error for 8 products based on independent Argo floats

Page 10 – October 26, 2015 CIS/MRD Sea-ice Analysis System (3Dvar FGAT persistence first guess) North American Analysis: Four analyses per day of ice concentration at 5 km resolution Global Analysis: two analyses per day on 10km grid Currently assimilates: SSM/I, AMSR-E, CIS daily charts, Radarsat image analyses Operational since March 2011 Work in progress to add: SSMIS, scatterometer, visible- infrared, SAR and ice thickness satellite-based observations M. Buehner, T. Carrieres, L. Pogson, A. Caya, … SSM/IAMSR-E CIS Chart RadarSAT

Page 11 – October 26, 2015 CONCEPTS Global Ice-ocean forecasting system Medium-range Coupled Global Prediction System Aims: –Improve 10day deterministic weather forecasts –Backbone for other CONCEPTS systems ▪Boundary conditions for regional system, wave model ▪Global conditions available for emergency response (e.g. DND) Description: –Based on Mercator operation system (ORCA025 with SAM2) –Also constrained with CIS/MRD 3DVAR ice analysis –Coupled to 33km (25km) GEM global Status: –Routine production of weekly ice-ocean analyses since Dec – to implement operationally in 2012 –Evaluation of ice-ocean forecasts underway –Starting initial evaluation of coupled runs –Mercator monitoring system being installed

Page 12 – October 26, 2015 CONCEPTS Global Ice-ocean forecasting system Monthly/seasonal Coupled Global Prediction System Aims: –Improve monthly ensemble forecasts by adding coupled ice-ocean –Develop configuration for GEM-NEMO seasonal forecasting system Description: –Based on 1deg global NEMO (ORCA1) –Initialize with SAM2+3DVAR analysis –Coupled to GEM global ensemble system Status: –Basic low-resolution GEM-ORCA1 configuration working –Will begin initial evaluation of coupled runs shortly ▪with Hai Lin and Bernard Dugas

Page 13 – October 26, 2015 Coupled Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean Forecast System for the Gulf of St. Lawrence Initiated 13 years ago by the Maurice Lamontagne Institute (DFO) and Recherche en Prévision Numérique (EC) EC and DFO have successfully developed a fully- interactive coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean forecasting system for the Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL) This system has been running operationally at the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) since June 2011 Results during the past years have demonstrated that the coupled system produces improved weather forecasts in and around the GSL during all seasons –Shows that atmosphere-ice-ocean interactions are indeed important even for short-term Canadian weather forecasts –Great potential for improved ice-ocean components and global systems

Surface temperature (TT) Forecast hour Dew point temperature (TD) Forecast hour Statistics for February 2008 Uncoupled Fully coupled Operational implementation

Page 15 – October 26, 2015 CONCEPTS Regional forecasting system C-NOOFS: Canadian-Newfoundland Operational Oceanographic Forecasting System Lead: F. Davidson (NAFC) Produces daily 10-day forecasts at 1/12° resolution for the Northwest Atlantic Initialized using Mercator data assimilation system. Assimilates observations of: ▪Satellite sea level anomaly data ▪Satellite and in situ surface temperature ▪Sub-surface temperature and salinity ▪CMC/CIS Ice analysis Designed to meet needs of Coast Guard and Navy, as well as variety of applications influenced by sea ice C-NOOFS

EC’s involvement in METAREA’s Development of an integrated marine Arctic prediction system in support of METAREA monitoring and warnings. Development of short-term marine forecast system using a regional high resolution coupled multi-component modelling (atmosphere, land, snow, ice, ocean, wave) and data assimilation system To predict: - Near Surface atmospheric conditions, - Sea ice (concentration, pressure, drift, ice edge) - Freezing spray, - Waves, and - Ocean conditions (temperature and currents) Improved Arctic monitoring

Page 17 – October 26, 2015 N. Atlantic/Arctic Coupled Forecasting System Build on CNOOFS and Coupled GSL Develop coupled forecasting system for N. America/Arctic (METAREAS) Couple NEMO to GEM regional (10km) 5km LAM over METAREAS 17&18 with 5km Atm 4DVAR/EnKF 1/12 th regional SAM2 Produce 48hr weather and marine forecasts C-NOOFS 1/12° GEM RDPS 10km

Page 18 – October 26, 2015 CONCEPTS Regional Configuration 1/12° Atlantic/Arctic system Work underway to evaluate/develop configuration Include tides (wt conservative non-linear free surface) Develop 1/12° coastal SAM2 Combine SAM2 with 3DVAR ice analysis

Page 19 – October 26, 2015 C-NOOFS On-going developments: Tidal evaluations Global M2 Tidal Product (FES 2004) C-NOOFS Zeliang Wang

Page 20 – October 26, 2015 Ice Forecasting System Significant forecast skill as measured against persistence of ice analysis at 24 and 120 hr C. Beaudoin 24hr 120hr Persistence Forecast RMS difference from CIS charts Day of month (Sept. 2009) Produces 48hr forecasts daily on 5km grid Initialized from North American Ice Analyses Preliminary results show significant forecast skill in ice concentration Planned operational implementation for 2012

Page 21 – October 26, 2015 Sea Ice model development Led by : J-F Lemieux (MRD) Several projects are starting now to investigate representation of small-scale features in sea ice In collaboration with B. Tremblay (McGill) and D. Dumont (UQAR) Areas of particular study: –Suitability of standard sea ice rheologies for high-resolution modelling –Development of new rheologies –Landfasting, ice-arching –Wave-ice interactions –Numerics (e.g. convergence, solvers)

Summary & conclusion Early CONCEPTS systems have matured and are being implemented operationally. Regional systems are converging on a coupled GEM- NEMO framework for application in a variety of Canadian regions, with the Arctic as a major focus. An initial global ice-ocean forecast system has been developed and evaluated. A coupling-ready global ice-ocean data assimilation and forecast system has been developed and preliminary assessments of ice-ocean forecasts and coupled GEM- NEMO forecasts are underway. We look forward to continuing complementary, mutually beneficial international collaborations and exchanges.