Economic Aspects of Space Weather on the Power Grid Space Weather Workshop 2008 Ben Damsky.

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Presentation transcript:

Economic Aspects of Space Weather on the Power Grid Space Weather Workshop 2008 Ben Damsky

2 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Assume a model utility is hit 5,000 MW of generation 3,000 employees 3,000,000 population served 1,000,000 in a metropolitan area Method:

3 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Consider costs from 2 viewpoints: The utility The whole society Method:

4 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Consider costs for 3 different storm magnitudes: 200A (Moderate) 400A (Large) 800A (Very Large) Method:

5 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. What does it cost a utility to respond to a GIC alert?

6 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Stop trans maintenance work: - 50 $50 per hour - 8 hours of stoppage Total: $20K per day Cost to utility of GIC Response

7 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Use non-economic dispatch: - 20% of 5,000 MW - added cost $10/MWHr Total: $100K per 10 hr Cost to utility of GIC Response

8 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. What does it cost a utility when a solar storm hits?

9 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Loss of life to 5 xfrms: - Each $100K Total: $500K Moderate Storm (200 A) Cost to utility

10 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Moderate Storm (200 A) Cost to utility

11 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Loss of a GSU: - Profit $50M - Depreciation $25M - Idle workers $4M - Transformer $1M Total: $80M Large Storm (400 A) Cost to utility

12 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

13 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. City without power: - Sales less fuel $794M - Idle workers $60M - Transformers $20M Total: $874M Very Large Storm (800 A) Cost to utility

14 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. What does it cost society when a very large solar storm hits?

15 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. US GNP $44,000 annual per capita - $170 per working day - Assume 80% lost: $136 - City of 1M people Total: $136M/day, $680M/week “GNP” for a City

16 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. City without power: - Reduced GNP $8.8B Wide area outage: - Reduced GNP $13.6B Total: $22.4B Very Large Storm (800 A) Cost to society

17 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

18 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

19 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

20 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Dorothea Lange

21 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Possible utility costs of moderate, large and very large GIC events

22 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Possible societal costs of moderate, large and very large GIC events

23 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

24 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

25 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

26 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

27 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.