Aviation Weather Hazards in the Southwest David Craft Aviation Products & Services Program Co-leader NWS Forecast Office, Albuquerque David Craft Aviation Products & Services Program Co-leader NWS Forecast Office, Albuquerque

NWS ABQ Forecast Area NWS El Paso NWS Midland

Overview NWS ABQ TAFs & TWEBs Weather Hazards –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms –Turbulence –Icing Internet Resources for Aviators Summary NWS ABQ TAFs & TWEBs Weather Hazards –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms –Turbulence –Icing Internet Resources for Aviators Summary Learning Objectives 1.Understand the evolution and timing of atmospheric mixing 2.Better anticipate the development and impact of these weather hazards Learning Objectives 1.Understand the evolution and timing of atmospheric mixing 2.Better anticipate the development and impact of these weather hazards

Smoke & Haze Obscurations NWS 6/24/ Z 6/23/ Z Mogollon Rim Wildfire Flagstaff Temperature & Wind Profiles 6/23/02 12Z FT AGL

Spring Winds Average Spring Wind Average Spring Wind Noon to 6 pm Albuquerque’s NWS 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% NWS

Rio Grande Valley East Winds High impact on the ABQ Sunport and Santa Fe Airport Stronger events also reach Double Eagle, Taos, and Grants Airports Over-the-top events can cause hurricane-force winds in Albuquerque –124 mph tram base –108 mph Glenwood Hills –90 mph (sustained) Albuquerque Airport High impact on the ABQ Sunport and Santa Fe Airport Stronger events also reach Double Eagle, Taos, and Grants Airports Over-the-top events can cause hurricane-force winds in Albuquerque –124 mph tram base –108 mph Glenwood Hills –90 mph (sustained) Albuquerque Airport * Santa Fe Tijeras Canyon Tijeras Canyon ABQ Airport X 1200 FT drop Sandia Mtns Sandia Mtns NWS

Low Level Wind Shear Any change in wind speed or direction within 2,000 feet AGL –Gap winds (eg. ABQ’s east winds) –Thunderstorms –Dryline –Fronts –Low level jet –Mountain waves –Land and sea breezes Example TAF forecast (nonconvective LLWS): –FM KT P6SM SKC WS018/24030KT –“TS” in TAF implies the presence of strong LLWS Any change in wind speed or direction within 2,000 feet AGL –Gap winds (eg. ABQ’s east winds) –Thunderstorms –Dryline –Fronts –Low level jet –Mountain waves –Land and sea breezes Example TAF forecast (nonconvective LLWS): –FM KT P6SM SKC WS018/24030KT –“TS” in TAF implies the presence of strong LLWS Rio Grande Valley East Wind?

Thunderstorms TAF or TWEB forecast = TS, then expect: –Severe icing and turbulence –Lightning –Microbursts –Low level wind shear –Potential for hail & tornadoes Beware of the freezing level Thunderstorm season –March-September eastern NM, eastern CO and TX –July-September western NM, western CO, AZ and UT TAF or TWEB forecast = TS, then expect: –Severe icing and turbulence –Lightning –Microbursts –Low level wind shear –Potential for hail & tornadoes Beware of the freezing level Thunderstorm season –March-September eastern NM, eastern CO and TX –July-September western NM, western CO, AZ and UT NWS

Supercell Thunderstorms Looking WNW, Motion NE Looking NE, Motion NE Looking E, Motion NE Copyright 2000 Corey Mead NWS Back-sheared anvil Flanking Line Overshooting Top Tropopause

Thunderstorms? Torrance County Tornado Photo 1 Photo 2 Photo 3 Photo 4 NWS

Hail Socorro October 2004 August 2004 Sand Creek in Union County NWS

Microburst NWS

Microburst NWS

Microburst & Blowing Dust NWS

Wet Microburst Photo 1 Photo 2 Photo 3

Dry Microburst

Dry Microburst? NWS

Dryline USATODAY.COM Dewpoints Dry/moist convergence zone Flying hazards: –Thunderstorms –Low Level Wind Shear Most common and intense in spring and early summer Daytime advances east Nighttime usually retreats west Dry/moist convergence zone Flying hazards: –Thunderstorms –Low Level Wind Shear Most common and intense in spring and early summer Daytime advances east Nighttime usually retreats west

WSR-88D RADAR COVERAGE Courtesy of SRI International. Cited Available on-line at: of SRI International. Cited Available on-line at:

Break Time? National Lightning Safety Institute

Midpoint Overview NWS ABQ TAFs & TWEBs Weather Hazards –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms –Turbulence –Icing Internet Resources for Aviators Summary NWS ABQ TAFs & TWEBs Weather Hazards –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms –Turbulence –Icing Internet Resources for Aviators Summary

Atmospheric Turbulence Types Thermal Mechanical Mountain Wave High Altitude Thermal Mechanical Mountain Wave High Altitude Turbulence from Fluid Flowing through a Grid From An Album of Fluid Motion by Milton Van Dyke, Figure 152

Thermal Turbulence Convective lifting and cooling The COMET Program

Mechanical Turbulence The COMET Program Rule of Thumb Wind > 30 KT within 3,000 FT = MDT TURBC Wind > 45KT within 3,000 FT = SVR TURBC Rule of Thumb Wind > 30 KT within 3,000 FT = MDT TURBC Wind > 45KT within 3,000 FT = SVR TURBC

Mountain Wave Turbulence Air Force Manual 51-12, Weather for Aircrews (1974)

Breaking Wave

Visible Satellite Depiction Roll clouds indicate turbulence more than 100 miles downstream NWS

Visible Sign of Mountain Wave NWS

Visible Sign of Mountain Wave NWS

Visible Sign of Mountain Wave

High Altitude Turbulence Air Force Handbook (Vol. 1), Weather for Aircrews (1997) TROPOPAUSE J J J = Jet Core NORTH

Visible Sign of High Altitude Turbulence High Altitude Turbulence frequently manifests as intermittent and patchy turbulence outbreaks stretched in thin layers along the direction of the wind Kelvin/Helmholtz Waves may appear if enough moisture High Altitude Turbulence frequently manifests as intermittent and patchy turbulence outbreaks stretched in thin layers along the direction of the wind Kelvin/Helmholtz Waves may appear if enough moisture

Turbulence Type Review

Icing Clear IceRime IceMixed Ice

Freezing Rain NASA

Frequency of Icing Type vs. Temperature from PIREPS Theoretical Temperature Range

Mountain Obscurations & Icing 0oC0oC 0oC0oC Jeppesen Sanderson Training Products

Hand fly the aircraft to check aerodynamics General aviators use de-ice equipment to flee from ice, not to fly in it Most icing accidents occur during landing after acquiring ice –Stall speed increases, so be careful with slow and low maneuvering –Keep speed up on approach, especially if heavily iced Hand fly the aircraft to check aerodynamics General aviators use de-ice equipment to flee from ice, not to fly in it Most icing accidents occur during landing after acquiring ice –Stall speed increases, so be careful with slow and low maneuvering –Keep speed up on approach, especially if heavily iced Safety Rules in Ice

Avoidance Options Find it during flight planning using aviationweather.gov Climb – may find warmer temperatures aloft Descend to warmer temperatures – watch out for terrain Divert to alternate airport Return – 180 degree course reversal may be best Take the shortest route! Find it during flight planning using aviationweather.gov Climb – may find warmer temperatures aloft Descend to warmer temperatures – watch out for terrain Divert to alternate airport Return – 180 degree course reversal may be best Take the shortest route!

PIREP JFK UA /OV JFK180005/TM 1649/FL250/TP LR25/IC MOD RIME= Use PIREPs with Caution Not all ice is reported Ice can develop or disappear quickly What type of aircraft reported the ice? –A jet at 250 KT may report no ice, while a Cessna reports light frost. Why? –Friction and air speed pressure can cause several degrees of warming on fuselage Not all ice is reported Ice can develop or disappear quickly What type of aircraft reported the ice? –A jet at 250 KT may report no ice, while a Cessna reports light frost. Why? –Friction and air speed pressure can cause several degrees of warming on fuselage

Internet Resources for Aviators Aviation Digital Data Service –AIRMETs, SIGMETs, TURBC, ICG, PIREPs, flight-level winds, and more – (Check out the New Flight Path Java Tool!) RIDGE-Radar loops and overlays –Warnings, topography, cities, counties, highways, rivers – National Digital Forecast Database –Graphical weather forecasts out 7 days – Hourly Weather Graph –Graphs of hourly temperature, wind, RH precipitation, and more at a point location – Cell phone and PDA weather –Free 7-day forecasts, warnings, radar, satellite, TAFs/TWEBs, METARS, and more –

Effective use of TAFs & TWEBs Varied terrain complicates aviation weather hazards in the SW –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms –Turbulence –Icing Knowledge of atmospheric mixing helps you anticipate weather development and its impact on your operations Access most Internet resources through aviationweather.gov Effective use of TAFs & TWEBs Varied terrain complicates aviation weather hazards in the SW –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms –Turbulence –Icing Knowledge of atmospheric mixing helps you anticipate weather development and its impact on your operations Access most Internet resources through aviationweather.gov Summary

Questions? Aviation Weather Hazards in the Southwest David Craft NWS Albuquerque David Craft NWS Albuquerque

Enter a zip code to access a local forecast

Scroll down to access: 1.Ridge-Radar with overlays 2.Graphical forecasts 3.Hourly weather graph

To access RIDGE- Radar with overlays: Double click this radar image

Here is the RIDGE- Radar display Choose your map overlays

Now we’re back at the middle of the local forecast. Scroll down further to access graphical forecasts

To access graphical forecasts: Double click either of these images

Wave cursor over “High” to view this high temperature map Use red arrows to move forward or backward in time

To access the hourly weather graph: Double click this link Now we’re back at the bottom of the local forecast

Select your parameters of interest and hit ‘Submit’

Cell phone and PDA weather: Top half of the screen

Bottom half of the screen

Summary Varied terrain complicates aviation weather hazards in the SW –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms Knowledge of atmospheric mixing helps you understand & anticipate weather development Useful aviation products –TAFs & TWEBs –Center Weather Advisories –Collaborative Convective Forecast Product Access most Internet resources through aviationweather.gov Varied terrain complicates aviation weather hazards in the SW –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms Knowledge of atmospheric mixing helps you understand & anticipate weather development Useful aviation products –TAFs & TWEBs –Center Weather Advisories –Collaborative Convective Forecast Product Access most Internet resources through aviationweather.gov –Turbulence –Mountain obscuration –Icing –Turbulence –Mountain obscuration –Icing

Questions? Aviation Weather Hazards in the Southwest David Craft NWS Albuquerque David Craft NWS Albuquerque