0 The Co-Evolution of Land Use and Transport: Theory and Application to London David Levinson University of Minnesota Imperial College, London February 21, 2007 With Bhanu Yerra, Feng Xie, Shanjiang Zhu, Ahmed El-Geneidy

1 General Points Transportation and Land use are interdependent shapers of urban form –Concentration of commercial activities (suburbanization of residences) and prosperity of public transport at the first half of 20th century. –Decentralization of both commercial and residential activities accompanied by expanding automobile/highway system in second half of 20th century.

2 Organization of Talk Movie: (go to SIMS) Orderliness in London SIGNAL - A Simulation Model of Co- evolution Twin Cities & Next steps

3 The Sequence of Development? This extension of the railway system by means of feeder lines means that in many ways the early development of the system can be viewed, not in terms of booms and slumps, but in rational steps. By the end of 1833, three of the five English provincial towns with a population of more than 100,000 had railway links with London under construction; by the end of 1836 only Portsmouth remained among English towns of over 50,000 population without a line authorized; and by the end of 1837 most towns of more than 20,000 inhabitants were on or close to the route of an authorized railway. - M.C. Reed

4 Orderliness Hypothesis H: Places will be connected to the network roughly in order of their population density (density is used to control for area). The places that have the highest population per unit area (or population density) will get the network first. Tested in London

5 Background 1836 London and Greenwich Railway 1846 Royal Commission on Railway Termini 1854 Metropolitan Railway chartered 1863 Metropolitan Railway opens 1884 “Circle” closed 1890 City and South London Railway (first tube) Railways not permitted to be developers except Metropolitan Railway --> Metro-Land Greenbelt

6 Surface Rail & Population

7 Underground & Population

8 Boroughs without Underground Service

9 City of London

10 Leads and Lags Transport Leads Land Use Transport Follows Land Use Developed Area(B) Development densifies in urban area after construction of new transport infrastructure (A) Constructing new (higher speed) mode in existing urbanized area (e.g. London Transport in early years) Undeveloped Area(C) Constructing new (higher speed) mode in greenfields, to promote development Still waiting …

11 Qualitative Model Rail first inter-city: connects outside -> in Underground first connects termini, then other points in developed area, and finally connects to new suburbs: inside -> out Has a decentralizing effect for residences, lowering population density in center, increasing it in suburbs. Other factors; entrepreneurs, construction costs, South vs. North (income, rail embeddedness, geology, competition, south already more local than north (London in south of England)

12 SIGNAL Simulator of Integrated Growth of Network and Land use –Simulate the co-evolution of land use and road networks. –Implement a bottom-up process that incorporates independent route choices of travelers, location decisions of businesses (jobs) and residents (workers), as well as investment decisions of autonomous roads. –Kept as simple as possible to capture salient components, while enabling us to display and analyze the emergent patterns of land use and network on a large scale.

13 Model Framework

14 Travel Demand Models 1.Trip Generation 2.Trip Distribution 4. Traffic Assignment Calibrated Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE) 3. Mode Choice Single mode is assumed

15 Road Investment Models 1. Revenue Model 2. Cost Model 3. Investment Model a b

16 SONG (fixed Land Use) Base Case: Uniform Initial Speeds and Land use (U/U) (left) Spatial distribution of uniform speed for the initial network; (right) Spatial distribution of speed for the network at equilibrium reached after 8 iterations.

17 Uniform initial speeds and random initial land use (U/R) Spatial distribution of speed for experiment U/R after reaching equilibrium;

18 Random initial speeds and random initial land use (R/R) (left) Spatial distribution of initial speed for experiment R/R (random initial speeds and random initial land use); (right) Spatial distribution of speeds for the network after reaching equilibrium; The color and thickness of the link shows its relative speed or flow.

19 Uniform initial speeds and bell-shaped initial land use (U/B) Spatial distribution of final speeds for experiment U/B (uniform initial speeds and bell shaped land use)

20 Access and Land use Models Assumptions –Residence and employment are the only types of activities, and their totals are kept equal and constant. –Accessibility to population and to employment are the only factors that affect location decisions. –People want to live near jobs, but far from other people to maximize available space and to avoid potential competitors for jobs, while employment wants to be accessible both to other employment and to people (who are their suppliers of labor and customers).

21 Access & Land use Models 1. Accessibility 2. Potential 3. Redistribution

22 Measures Gini Equivalent radius (r) Where E j = employment of zone j d j = distance of zone j to the center of a region

23 Numerical Example A hypothetical metropolitan area where: –both the population and employment are distributed over a two-dimensional grid, stretching 10 km in both dimensions, divided into a 20X20 grid lattice of land use cells (400 zones). –A total of 400,000 people are living in the city, which is equivalent to an average of 1,000 residents in each zone. Total employment equals 400,000 as well (and each resident holds a job). –Two-way roads connect the centroids of each pair of adjacent zones, thus forming a 20X20 grid of road network as well, comprising 400 nodes and 1520 links.

24 Experiments and Hypotheses Experiments Hypotheses Initially flat land uses become more concentrated, and initially concentrated become less so. The degree to which land uses are concentrated is reinforced when road networks are allowed to vary rather than remain constant.

25 Result: activity density Evolution of employment without network dynamics Evolution of employment with network dynamics

26 Results: Gini 0 more equitable 1 less equitable

27 Results: Equivalent Radius

28 Sensitivity

29 Sensitivity

30 Summary A simple co-evolution model of transportation and land use which incorporates independent route choices of travelers, location decisions of businesses (jobs) and residents (workers), as well as investment decisions of autonomous roads. Experimental results show that the degree of both employment and population concentration is reinforced when road networks are allowed to vary rather than remain constant. Contemporary integrated transportation and land use models that neglect road dynamics could underestimate the concentration of land uses.

31 Next Steps Application to Twin Cities Estimation & Calibration of Models (Markov Chain, Cellular Automata, MCCA, SIGNAL) using detailed empirical dataset.

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40 Future Models … Modeling –Explicitly consider co-evolution –Dynamic transportation network instead of static network –Dynamic land use rather than fixed land use –Variable rather than static demand –Bottom-up process (Cellular Automata/Agent-Based) instead of top-down (Allocation, Equilibrium, Optimization)

41 Thank You More available at: Rational.ce.umn.edu

42 Orderliness

43 Random initial speeds and bell-shaped initial land use (R/B) (top) Spatial distribution of initial speed for experiments R/B (random initial speeds and bell shaped land use); (bottom) Spatial distribution of speeds for the network after reaching equilibrium

44 Gravity model parameter variations with uniform network and land use (U/U) Spatial distribution of relative speeds at equilibrium for (top) w = 0.02 (less sensitive to travel cost); (bottom) w = 0.8 (more sensitive to travel cost).

45 Variation of average traffic flow (left) speed (right) with w for 10X10, 11X11 and 15X15 networks.

46 Slice of a bell-shaped downtown land use pattern