Roffman Miller Associates, Inc. “We help people take charge of their financial future”

Conference Agenda What are our thoughts on the Market? Peter Miller, President Will it ever get better? Bob Hofmann, Vice President What should I do? Mark Frombach, Investment Manager

Recessions & Bear Markets Headlines are Bad Banks & Financial Stocks have collapsed from the credit crisis Real estate values are plunging Gas prices have gone through the roof Consumers’ confidence lies near a 40 year low We are in one of the worst Bear Markets in history

Recession The conglomerates were the leading stocks of the Dow whose growth was based on aggressive leveraging. By mid 1970 most conglomerates were out of business Who remembers: Leasco Data, City Investing, University Computing, Gulf & Western or Solitron Devices. Once bottomed it took 1 ½ years to recoup most of the losses.

Recession Collapse of the “Nifty Fifty” Bubble where the best companies reached unrealistic levels Once bottomed it took about 1 year and 5 months to recoup most of the losses

1987 Bear Market No recession, but the market was extremely overvalued Black Monday-down 25% Once bottomed it took about 1 ½ years to recoup most of the losses.

Recession Recession with no Bear Market 1,500 Savings & Loans (S&L) and Banks were forced to merge or went bankrupt Era of Greed-Michael Milken—junk bond king Congress-Resolution Trust Company to bail out S&L’s Once bottomed it took about 4 months to get back to its high.

2001 Recession Tech Bubble September 11, Years afterwards the NASDAQ was still down 60% Once bottomed the S&P 500 took 7 years and 7 months to recoup its losses.

Real Estate Collapse Credit Crisis Global Recession Bear Market -46%

Bear Market History Tend to come before recessions Tend to be over well before the recession ended Bear Market StartBear Market EndPercentage Decline After --22% drop, percent drop to end Bear Market Duration of Bear Market 6/15/19486/13/ %100%1 yr 8/2/195610/22/ %100%1yr 3m 12/12/19616/26/ %79%6.5m 2/9/196610/4/ %99%8m 11/29/19685/26/ %61%1yr 6m 1/11/197310/3/ %46%1yr9m 11/28/19808/12/ %81%1yr 9m 8/25/198712/4/ %66%3m 3/24/20009/21/ %60%1yr 6m 1/4/20027/23/ %69%7m 10/9/20077/15/2008 to ?-46% to date?? Summary Average 30.4%Average 75.0%1yr 1m Non Bubble Average 27.0%Average 84.4%1yr 1m

Post Bear Market Bounce Bear market is over—stock markets explode Bear Market EndNext 12 months (S&P 500) 6/13/ % 10/22/ % 6/26/ % 10/7/ % 5/26/ % 10/3/ % 8/12/ % 12/4/ % 9/21/ % 7/23/ %

5 Year Periods/ Low P/E Discipline Recession Period Investment Time Frame Annualized Return for 5-Year Periods % % % % %

Summary At the end of the day listen to Warren Buffet: “ I will tell you how to become rich. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.”