An Overview of North Slope Hydrology and Potential Response to Climate Change Presented by: Amy Tidwell, PhD Water and Environmental Research Center University.

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Presentation transcript:

An Overview of North Slope Hydrology and Potential Response to Climate Change Presented by: Amy Tidwell, PhD Water and Environmental Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks Wildlife Response to Environmental Arctic Change (WildREACH) November 2008

Outline Introduction to the Arctic hydrologic cycle General water balance approach Discussion of seasonal hydrologic features in the Arctic Hydrologic response to climate change –Scenario I: Increasing air temperature –Scenario II: Increasing air temperature with increasing precipitation Panel discussion

From Kane and Yang, 2004

WinterSpringSummerFall Seasonally frozen ground Permafrost Rainfall (P R ) Evapotranspiration P s =snow, P R =rain, E s =sublimation, ET=evapotranspiration, R=surface runoff, S soil =soil moisture storage, and S surface =surface water storage Snow accumulation S surface + S soil Output Input PRPR PsPs (P S + P R )- (E S + ET)- R= ∆ (S surface + S soil ) Water Balance: EsEs ET Sublimation (E s )Sublimation SnowSnow (P s )

Water Balance Terms for Selected Arctic Basins Data sources: Kane et al., 2000; Kane et al., 2004; Kane et al., Map from WERC/UAF

WinterSpringSummerFall Seasonally frozen ground Permafrost P s =snow, P R =rain, E s =sublimation, ET=evapotranspiration, R=surface runoff, S soil =soil moisture storage, and S surface =surface water storage Snow accumulation S surface + S soil Output Input PRPR PsPs (P S + P R )- (E S + ET)- R= ∆ (S surface + S soil ) Water Balance: EsEs ET A I DC B G F H J E Active Layer Thickness Rainfall (P R ) EvapotranspirationSublimation (E s )Sublimation SnowSnow (P s )

Hydrographs for Selected Basins and Years Kane, D.L. and Hinzman, L.D., Climate data from the North Slope Hydrology Research project. University of Alaska Fairbanks, Water and Environmental Research Center. URL: Fairbanks, Alaska, variously paged. November, 2008.

WinterSpringSummerFall Seasonally frozen ground Permafrost Snow accumulation S surface + S soil Output Input A I DC B G F H J E EsEs ET PRPR PsPs Active Layer Thickness Rainfall (P R ) EvapotranspirationSublimation (E s )Sublimation SnowSnow (P s )

WinterSpringSummerFall Seasonally frozen ground Permafrost ↓ Winter energy flux from ground to atmosphere Enhanced active layer development ↑ Soil storage capacity (settlement?) Geomorphic and vegetation changes ↑ Temperature only ↑ Summer energy flux from atmosphere to ground ↑ Potential for mid-winter melt and ice in snow ↑ Evapotranspiration ↓ Soil moisture (no ↑ precipitation) S surface + S soil Output Input Snow accumulation PsPs A I DC B G F H J D EsEs ET PRPR Active Layer Thickness Rainfall (P R ) EvapotranspirationSublimation (E s )Sublimation SnowSnow (P s )

WinterSpringSummerFall Seasonally frozen ground Permafrost Snow accumulation ↓ Winter energy flux from ground to atmosphere Enhanced active layer development ↑ Soil storage capacity (settlement?) Geomorphic and vegetation changes ↑ Temperature, ↑ Precipitation ↑ Summer energy flux from atmosphere to ground ↑ Potential for mid-winter melt and ice in snow ↑ Evapotranspiration Soil moisture change unknown ? S surface + S soil Output Input A I DC B G F H E EsEs ET PRPR Active Layer Thickness Rainfall (P R ) EvapotranspirationSublimation (E s )Sublimation SnowSnow (P s ) J

References Bowling, L.C., D.L. Kane, R.E. Gieck, and L.D. Hinzman, “The role of surface storage in a low- gradient Arctic watershed.” Water Resources Research, 39(4), Hinzman, L.D. and others, “Evidence and implications of recent climate change in Northern Alaska and other arctic regions.” Climatic Change, 72: Kane, D.L., “The Impact of Hydrologic Perturbations on Arctic Ecosystems Induced by Climate Change.” In Global Change and Arctic Terrestrial Systems, Eds. Oechel, Callaghan, Gilmanov, Holten, Maxwell, Molau, and Sveinbjornsson. Kane, D.L., L.D. Hinzman, J.P. McNamara, Z. Zhang, and C.S. Benson, “An Overview of a Nested Watershed Study in Arctic Alaska.” Nordic Hydrology, 31: Kane, D.L., R.E. Gieck, and L.D. Hinzman, “Water Balance for a Low-Gradient Watershed in Northern Alaska.” Proceedings, Ninth International Conference on Permafrost, Fairbanks, AK. Kane, D.L. and D. Yang (eds), Northern Research Basins Water Balance. International Association of Hydrological Sciences. IAHS Publication 290. Wallingford, UK, 271pp. McNamara, J.P., D.L. Kane, and L.D. Hinzman, “An analysis of streamflow hydrology in the Kuparuk River Basin, Arctic Alaska: a nested watershed approach.” Journal of Hydrology, 206: Woo, M.K., D.L. Kane, S.K. Carey, and D. Yang, “Progress in Permafrost Hydrology in the New Millennium.” Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 19: Woo, M.K., and X.J. Guan, “Hydrological Connectivity and Seasonal Storage Change of Tundra Ponds in a Polar Oasis Environment, Canadian High Arctic.” Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 17:

Hydrology Panel Doug Kane, Water and Environmental Research Center, UAF Matthew Sturm, Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory Amy Tidwell, Water and Environmental Research Center, UAF Larry Hinzman, International Arctic Research Center, UAF Anna Liljedahl, International Arctic Research Center, UAF