Determinants of Grade 12 Pass Rates in the post-Apartheid South African Schooling System Haroon Bhorat and Morne Oosthuizen Determinants of Grade 12 Pass Rates in the post-Apartheid South African Schooling System Haroon Bhorat and Morne Oosthuizen Development Policy Research Unit, University of Cape Town Website:

Background & Approach “There is no blueprint for a model school that can be reproduced and handed out to policymakers, and such a blueprint is unlikely to be developed in the near future” (Hanushek,1995) “There is no blueprint for a model school that can be reproduced and handed out to policymakers, and such a blueprint is unlikely to be developed in the near future” (Hanushek,1995) Massive and Swift Fiscal Reallocation: Massive and Swift Fiscal Reallocation: 1980s: R1.00 spent on White pupils, while expenditure on each African pupils stood at 19c 1980s: R1.00 spent on White pupils, while expenditure on each African pupils stood at 19c 1997: R1.00 spent on African pupils, 71 cents per White pupil. 1997: R1.00 spent on African pupils, 71 cents per White pupil.

Background & Approach Achievement Production Function Approach. Achievement Production Function Approach. Specifically: How do the different covariates simultaneously impact on (school) average Grade 12 pass rates? Specifically: How do the different covariates simultaneously impact on (school) average Grade 12 pass rates? Data principally drawn from the SRN 2000, Matric Results 2000 and Census EA-level data for Data principally drawn from the SRN 2000, Matric Results 2000 and Census EA-level data for 2001.

Descriptive Statistics: Schools Variable/Former DepartmentAfricanWhiteTotal Matric Pass Rate Pupil-Teacher Ratio Schools with User Fees Lowest Grade Offerred Non-std. classroom:learner ratio Specialist classroom:learner ratio Principal Office Desks per learner At least 1 library Computer for Teaching & Learning Telecommunications Electricity for Lighting Sports Facilities Criminal Incident in Previous year Sample Size 4, ,610

Descriptive Statistics: EAs Variable/Former Dept.AfricanWhiteTotal Share Rural Mean Household Size Children per Household Share of Informal Housing Share of Households Without: Piped Water Electricity Telephone Mean Years of Schooling for Adults

Matric Pass Rates,2000

Econometric Approach Through ordinary least squared (OLS) estimation, we derive a sample mean Through ordinary least squared (OLS) estimation, we derive a sample mean The sample median can be derived through quantile regression approach by minimising the sum of the absolute residuals The sample median can be derived through quantile regression approach by minimising the sum of the absolute residuals Quantile Reg.: Estimation at different points in the conditional distribution of the dependent variable Quantile Reg.: Estimation at different points in the conditional distribution of the dependent variable

Estimation Difficulties School-level data, so no intra-classroom variation School-level data, so no intra-classroom variation Omitted Variable Bias [parental and teacher variables weak] Omitted Variable Bias [parental and teacher variables weak] Measurement Error [Quality of DoE datasets] Measurement Error [Quality of DoE datasets] Selection Bias [School drop-out rates] Selection Bias [School drop-out rates] Not true post-apartheid estimates Not true post-apartheid estimates

Production Function Results (1) Dependent Variable: Matric Pass Rate OLS Median [1][3] Pupil- Teacher ratio Independent3.011*1.826 Lowest grade-0.264*-0.284* Non-std. classroom:learner ratio * * Specialist classroom:learner ratio * Platoon School Used for ABET Principal’s Office Accom. For Staff3.462*2.347* Tuckshop Boards per classroom Seats per learner Desks per learner1.455*1.094 Overhead p.l Photocopier p.l

Production Function Results (1) contd. Dependent Variable: Matric Pass Rate OLS Median [1][3] Library2.634*2.330* Computer for teaching10.392*11.173* Computer for admin6.680*7.199* Phone3.028*3.889* Water Indoors Electricity2.591*3.619* Sports facilities2.477*3.429* Crime Incident-2.663*-2.492* Col./Indian School13.039*16.208* White School26.904*29.159* New School1.908*3.258*

Production Function Results (1) contd. Dependent Variable: Matric Pass Rate OLS Median [1][3] Rural Household Size Children per hh * Adult mean yrs of schooling0.813*0.726* Poverty Index Sample Size5014 Pseudo R

Key Results Insignificance of pupil-teacher ratios in determining the mean or the median pass rate Insignificance of pupil-teacher ratios in determining the mean or the median pass rate Physical infrastructure: Almost all classroom resources insignificant in shaping pass rates. but very specific variables are significant, namely Physical infrastructure: Almost all classroom resources insignificant in shaping pass rates. but very specific variables are significant, namely Non-standard classrooms and Staff Accomm. Non-standard classrooms and Staff Accomm. Knowledge Infrastructure critical. Knowledge Infrastructure critical. Environm. factors e.g. crime, electricity & telecomm. Influential. Environm. factors e.g. crime, electricity & telecomm. Influential. Classification Dummies are critical and reflect composite of important omitted variables Classification Dummies are critical and reflect composite of important omitted variables Household Variables: Household Variables: Location & Asset Poverty insignificant Location & Asset Poverty insignificant Dependency Ratios & Adult Years of Schooling Significant Dependency Ratios & Adult Years of Schooling Significant

Production Function Results (2) Dependent Variable: Matric Pass Rate Percentile 10 th (21.4%) 25 th (33.6%) 75 th (77.3%) 90 th (96.7%) Pupil- Teacher ratio * Independent *2.705 Lowest grade-0.166* *-0.256* Non-std. classroom:learner ratio * * Specialist classroom:learner ratio * Platoon School * * Used for ABET Principal’s Office * Accom. For Staff *2.455*2.352* Tuckshop3.613* Boards per classroom Seats per learner * Desks per learner * Overhead p.l * Photocopier p.l * *

Pupil-Teacher Ratios Revisited

Production Function Results (2) contd. Dependent Variable: Matric Pass Rate Percentile 10 th 25 th 75 th 90 th Library *1.588*1.260 Computer for teaching9.807*10.389*9.201*6.189* Computer for admin3.269*5.128*9.843*9.478* Phone *3.517*2.795* Water Indoors Electricity *3.499*1.594* Sports facilities *4.095*2.703* Crime Incident-1.967*-2.059*-1.525*-2.847* Col./Indian School19.460*18.568*11.037*5.536* White School47.229*41.621*16.967*9.660* New School *1.804

Production Function Results (2) contd. Dependent Variable: Matric Pass Rate Percentile 10 th 25 th 75 th 90 th Rural *1.223 Household Size * Children per hh * Adult mean yrs of schooling1.009*0.720*0.905*0.579* Poverty Index Sample Size5014 Pseudo R

Adult Schooling

Five Composite Results 1. The Pupil-Teacher Ratio is insignificant in explaining the performance of all schools – barring those in the 80th percentile upward. 2. Relative unimportance of Physical Classroom Resources. Boards, desks and seats have low explanatory power. 1. Caveat: Non-std. classrooms do matter 3. Knowledge Infrastructure, and access to services and utilities critical in explaining relative performance. 4. Teacher and Parental Characteristics matter. 1. significant results for onsite staff accommodation; adult years of schooling and the classification dummies 5. A core group of poorly resourced, rural-based high-performing former Homeland Schools – requires closer analysis

Production Function Results (3) Dependent Variable: Matric Pass Rate Inter-Quantile Range 90 th - 10 th 90 th - 50 th 50 th - 10 th Pupil- Teacher ratio Independent Lowest grade Non-std. classroom:learner ratio ** Specialist classroom:learner ratio Platoon School7.066**6.743**0.323 Used for ABET Principal’s Office Accom. For Staff Tuckshop-4.741*-1.972**-2.770** Boards per learner Seats per learner Desks per learner Overhead p.l Photocopier p.l *** *

Production Function Results (3) Dependent Variable: Matric Pass Rate Inter-Quantile Range 90 th - 10 th 90 th - 50 th 50 th - 10 th Library Computer for teaching-3.618***-4.984*1.366 Computer for admin6.209* ** Phone *** Water Indoors Electricity Sports facilities *** Crime Incident Col./Indian School * * White School * * * New School Unspecified Sch ***

Production Function Results (3) Dependent Variable: Matric Pass Rate Inter-Quantile Range 90 th - 10 th 90 th - 50 th 50 th - 10 th Rural Household Size Children per hh Adult mean yrs of schooling Poverty Index Constant53.097*37.318*15.780* High Quantile R Low Quantile R

Key Relative Performance Results Inherited Socio-Economic Factors are Insignificant i.t.o Relative Performance Inherited Socio-Economic Factors are Insignificant i.t.o Relative Performance P-T Ratio is Insignificant in Explaining Relative Performance P-T Ratio is Insignificant in Explaining Relative Performance Non-Std. Classrooms & Platoons increase dispersion in pass rates Non-Std. Classrooms & Platoons increase dispersion in pass rates Administrative efficiency and knowledge infrastructure matter for reducing the performance gap Administrative efficiency and knowledge infrastructure matter for reducing the performance gap Classification Dummies: Very Strong Effect Classification Dummies: Very Strong Effect

[Early]Policy Suggestions Know Which Portion of the Performance Spectrum you want to Influence, as Determinants are Different Know Which Portion of the Performance Spectrum you want to Influence, as Determinants are Different Do not Invest in Reducing Classroom Size Do not Invest in Reducing Classroom Size Invest in Learning Infrastructure….but Invest wisely! Invest in Learning Infrastructure….but Invest wisely! Investment in Knowledge Infrastructure will reap rewards Investment in Knowledge Infrastructure will reap rewards Try and Better Understand what is going on in Former Homeland Schools (Natural Experiments?) Try and Better Understand what is going on in Former Homeland Schools (Natural Experiments?) Importance of Classification Dummies Suggests that many teacher, pupil characteristics are critical, and we need to understand what components impact on pass rates. Importance of Classification Dummies Suggests that many teacher, pupil characteristics are critical, and we need to understand what components impact on pass rates. Socio-Economic Status Not As Critical as may have been assumed. Socio-Economic Status Not As Critical as may have been assumed.