Forecasting and in situ sampling of boreal biomass burning plumes over Maritime Canada during summer 2011: Flight planning and the first results from the BORTAS aircraft measurement campaign. Mark Parrington *, Paul Palmer (University of Edinburgh) David Waugh † (Environment Canada, Dartmouth) Steven Pawson (NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) Michel Bourqui (McGill University) David Tarasick, Huixia He (Environment Canada, Downsview) Edward Hyer (Naval Research Laboratory) David Oram, Grant Forster (University of East Anglia) Tom Duck, Kimiko Sakamoto, Mark Gibson, Jonathan Franklin (Dalhousie University) BORTAS Science Team * †

Overview BORTAS measurement campaign. Boreal biomass burning activity in July Forecasting boreal biomass burning outflow for the BORTAS measurement campaign. GEOS-5 CO forecasts. Forward trajectory forecasts: LAGRANTO and FLEXPART driven by GEM meteorology and initialised with FLAMBE biomass burning emissions. Observations of predicted boreal biomass burning outflow. Aircraft measurements of biomass burning outflow over Gulf of St. Lawrence and Island of Newfoundland. Layers of biomass burning outflow measured by lidar and aircraft spiral profiles over Dalhousie Ground Station. Summary.

BORTAS measurement campaign Based out of Halifax NS, Canada from 12 July to 3 August FAAM BAe146 aircraft. 500 nautical mile range, approx. ceiling at ft. 15 flights (including science transit flights between UK and Canada via Azores, ~20 hours). Support from ground-based, in situ, and satellite observations. Aerosol numbers distributions, composition (AMS, SP2). VOCs, alcohols, ketones, aldehydes, ethers (WAS). NO y speciation (LIF). HCN, HNO 3, formic acid (CIMS). O 3 (UV-abs). CH 3 CN/oxygenates (PTR-MS). CO 2, CH 4, CO. j(NO 2 ), j(O 1 D). Semi-volatile VOCs.

Boreal biomass burning emissions during BORTAS-B [10 14 molecules/cm 2 /s] Total CO emissions 12 July - 3 August 2011 Total biomass burning CO emissions gridded to 1º × 1º horizontal grid over BORTAS-B campaign period (12 July - 3 August 2011). Timeseries of C emissions from FLAMBE inventory for boreal regions through July and August Eastern Siberia dominates boreal biomass burning emissions throughout the period. Plumes from Canadian emissions sampled during aircraft campaign. Fires in NW Ontario significant in early part of campaign period. Day of year 2011 Carbon emissions / TgC FLAMBE daily carbon emissions: 1 July - 31 August 2011

GEOS-5 CO forecasts NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5). global horizontal resolution ½ degree latitude × ⅔ degree longitude, 26 vertical levels (50 hPa vertical resolution in troposphere), 3-hour time resolution. 5-day forecast output generated at 00z and 12z each day. Forecast CO tagged for different emissions sources: biomass burning emissions: boreal (latitudes > 50ºN) and non-boreal. fossil fuel burning emissions: North America, Europe, Northern and Southern Asia.

GEM-Lagranto smoke forecasts Smoke plume forecasts from the LAGRANTO Lagrangian trajectory model driven by forecast meteorology from Environment Canada Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model. global horizontal resolution 0.3 degree latitude × 0.45 degree longitude, hourly time resolution. animations and plots for BORTAS campaign available online at Smoke and carbon emissions initialised with Fire Locating And Monitoring of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) inventory.

GEM-Flexpart smoke forecasts Smoke plume forecasts from the FLEXPART Lagrangian trajectory model driven by forecast meteorology from Environment Canada Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model. global horizontal resolution 0.3 degree latitude × 0.45 degree longitude, hourly time resolution. animations and plots for BORTAS campaign available online at Smoke and carbon emissions initialised with Fire Locating And Monitoring of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) inventory.

GEOS-5 vs. Lagrangian trajectory plume forecasts Forecast outputs at ~1500 UTC on 21 July from forecasts initialized at midnight UTC on 20 July (21 July for GEM- Flexpart). Outputs show column abundances from ~2-4 km. Comparison of GEOS-5 CO forecasts against Lagrangian trajectory forecasts. Generally consistent plume locations and distributions. Differences in plume location reflect differences in model resolution and initial conditions. Forecasts used to define flight plans for deployment of BAe-146 aircraft across Eastern Canada throughout the campaign. GEM-Lagranto carbon plume from fires in NW OntarioGEOS-5 forecast CO from boreal biomass burningGEM-Flexpart CO plume from fires in NW Ontario

Observed biomass burning outflow: BORTAS flight B624 Fifth research flight of the campaign, 21 July Science plan to sample biomass burning plume in mid-lower troposphere over Island of Newfoundland and Gulf of St. Lawrence. Flight plan superimposed over GEOS-5 CO forecast at 750 hPa. Aircraft altitude and measured CO correlate with location of outflow predicted by GEOS-5. Flight plan for 21 July 2011Aircraft altitudeAircraft CO measurements [m][ppbv]

Aircraft observations of biomass burning tracers Biomass burning outflow from fires in NW Ontario observed at low altitude (2-4 km) to the east of the Island of Newfoundland. Strong correlation between CO and acetonitrile (CH 3 CN) observed by the aircraft. correlation coefficient, r = 0.97 other organic species exhibit similar correlations/linear relationships to CO in the plume (not shown). Aircraft altitudeCO and acetonitrile Altitude / kmCO / ppbv; CH 3 CN / pptvCH 3 CN / pptv CO / ppbvTime / day of year

Observed vertical profiles of biomass burning outflow over Halifax GEOS-5 predicted boreal biomass burning outflow (forecast initialised on 20 July, midnight UTC) in mid to lower troposphere over Halifax starting just before midnight 21 July. Event coincided with BORTAS flight B623, which measured spiral profiles over Halifax, on 20 July. Layers of enhanced aerosol backscatter observed during aircraft spiral over Halifax and by Dalhousie lidar coincident to timing and altitude of predicted outflow. Two distinct layers observed at 2 km and 5km altitude correlate with enhanced CO and CH 3 CN. Enhancements in other measurements made at Dalhousie Ground Station presented by Mark Gibson and Jonathan Franklin. 20 July, 12z21 July, 00z21 July, 12z Approx. altitude / km GEOS-5 CO from boreal biomass burning, _00zDalhousie lidar [ppbv]CO / ppbv; CH 3 CN / pptvGreen backscatter coefficient / ×10 -4 Altitude / km Ascending spiral aircraft profiles over Halifax ~0100 UTC, 21 July 2011

Summary BORTAS measurement campaign, based out of Halifax NS, took place between 12 July and 3 August plumes from Canadian forest fires (especially in NW Ontario) sampled throughout the campaign period. Forecasts of plumes of biomass burning outflow for the BORTAS measurement campaign were used to direct the deployment of the aircraft. GEOS-5 CO forecasts provided reliable predictions of the timing and location of plumes, supported by Lagrangian trajectory forecasts. Lagrangian trajectory models driven by GEM meteorology were consistent with GEOS-5 forecasts. The aircraft sampled the predicted boreal biomass burning outflow on the majority of the research flights. Aircraft measurements of biomass burning outflow over Gulf of St. Lawrence and Island of Newfoundland. Strong correlation between measured CO and CH 3 CN (and other organic species associated with biomass burning, not shown). Layers of enhanced CO/CH3CN and aerosol observed over Dalhousie Ground Station by lidar and aircraft.