Cash for carbon: hot prospect or hot air? Colin Hunt Visiting Fellow in Economics The University of Queensland NRI Diploma in Economic.

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Presentation transcript:

Cash for carbon: hot prospect or hot air? Colin Hunt Visiting Fellow in Economics The University of Queensland NRI Diploma in Economic Policy Analysis Policy for REDD ___________________________________________

Market failure Emissions of C at no cost Conservation of C no benefit

REDD and REDD plus REDD Reduction in deforestation and forest degradation REDD++ Low impact logging, enrichment planting, etc.

Global greenhouse gas sources

Kyoto 1997l

Bonn, 2005

Coalition of rainforest nations, 2005

Coalition of rainforest nations

Bali 2007

“If the US is not willing to lead then get out of the way!” Paula Dobriansky Kevin Conrad

Copenhagen 2009

Cancun 2010

PNG’s UNFCCC post-Copenhagen submission 1. Increase GDP per capita more than 3 times by Decrease GHG emissions at least 50% before February 2010

What about REDD for other land uses in PNG?

How much carbon in forests? Ground-truthing

PNG logging 175,000 ha a year 137 Tonnes C per ha 62 tonnes C per ha

Carbon markets 1 tonne C = 3.67 tonnes of CO 2

Markets and ‘mani long win’

Opportunity cost of REDD  Logging companies (profits)  The government (log export tax)  Landowners (royalties and development benefits)

1. Global (UNFCCC) market for C Demand for C because of caps buyers and sellers of C MRV C $ landowners

2. Voluntary market for C Voluntary demand for C offsets C $ carbon cowboys MRV? C $ landowners

“I am a top foreigner in Papua New Guinea, says carbon kingpin”, Carbon Cowboy

3. Donor $ PNG government MRV C $ landowners

Is a tonne of CO 2 a tonne of CO 2 ?

Measurement Leakage Permanence

Would the forest have been cleared or logged? ?

REDD plus in PNG Low impact logging and Logging Code of Practice REDD Plus = CO 2 LCP - CO 2 LIL A

REDD and PNG livelihoods

Donor $ PNG government MRV C $ landowners

Some key words REDD and REDD plus Ground-truthing MRV CO 2 and carbon markets Voluntary market Donor Leakage