The Future of GOES Creating the Vision …sustaining the mission… …improving the products… …producing results… Marie Colton Director Center for Satellite Applications and Research

Motivational Goal: Mapping Science to Systems Complete the user connection to the GOES formal requirements and acquisition documents that prescribe the –What to measure? How? Where? When? –At what cost? By answering the science and user questions –Why do we need to know? And for Whom? Using an organizational approach that recognizes differing R&D components of system and product development and their associated performance indicators And the natural affinity of scientists, engineers, and users to focus on user- inspired science –Honor the past –Improve the present –Produce measurable results –Shape the future

Evolution of Modern Science towards Definition of User-Inspired Science “Pasteur’s Quadrant”, 1997, Donald Stokes, Brookings Institution Identifies user-inspired science (a la Louis Pasteur) as modern science domain between pure Basic (Neils Bohr) and pure Applied (Thomas Edison). Science needs technology, technology needs science “The public opinion data are remarkably clear on the support for science [to provide for unmet societal needs], however distant and puzzling much of the public may find the scientific venture.” Stokes, “Pasteur’s Quadrant”, p. 97

Excerpted from “Recognizing the Competing Values of R&D Organizations,” G. Jordan, Sandia National Laboratories Small, Flexible, Diverse Science Evolutionary INTERNAL Revolutionary EXTERNAL Large, Controlled, Convergent Science MASTER: BE SUSTAINABLECREATE: BE NEW IMPROVE: BE BETTERPRODUCE: BE FIRST Incrementally new ideas Develop teachable points Community leadership Great Contributors Radically new ideas A new way to ask or think Global leadership Unusual projects Incrementally new products Standardized applications Reliable facilities Good Technical Management Projects on track Radically new products Identify applications Rapid Deployment Projects have high yield Strategic Partnerships Competing R&D Profiles -- Different Values & Performance Indicators

BE NEW “the clouds moved - not the satellite” Verner Suomi December 7, 1966: NASA launched the first geostationary Applications Technology Satellite (ATS-1), which had the ability to see weather systems in motion with the first Spin Scan Cloud Camera. The ATS-1 was capable of full-disk Earth imaging every half hour. The National Severe Storm Forecast Center (NSSFC) and the National Hurricane Center benefited from imagery taken by ATS-3 in the early 1970's.

In 1994, the GOES was launched on a three axis stable platform (enabling better signal to noise in the measurements) and expanded to separate imaging and sounding instruments (allowing operational soundings for the first time). GOES-8 is over 8 yrs old 13 Apr 94 BE BETTER

BE FIRST: GOES12, July 23, 2001

BE SUSTAINING: People matter With a loop projector constructed by Ted Fujita ATS cloud motions were studied Verner E. Suomi and Robert J. Parent Bill Smith, Then and After Then

BE NEW: GOES11 data during out-of-storage checkout Improved understanding of water vapor cycle through detailed study of convective activity using in-situ, aircraft, satellite observations and modeling GOES8 16 June 2002 GOES11 Benefits of 5-minute GOES-R: More timely identification of severe weather and subsequent warnings More effective coordination between satellite and radar for identifying relevant features and trends International H20 Project (IHOP), 2002

..Not just for clouds anymore… Products and Services Catalog (2002, Fourth Edition) LAND, SEA, CLOUD TOP TEMPS GOES Aerosol Smoke Product (GASP) BE BETTER

BE FIRST MULTIPLATFORM SST: Maximize strengths – minimize weaknesses Combine to obtain the optimal SST analysis POES IR has high spatial resolution GOES IR has high temporal resolution Microwave has all-weather capability

BE SUSTAINING: Science Communities Matter Ex: Redesignation of 12 µm Channel on GOES12 Requires a change in SST retrieval algorithms Need to generate new cloud mask SST diurnal cycle studies important for a range of applications: –Climate heat fluxes and temperature trends –Assimilation of SST data with asynoptic observation times –Process studies for diurnal cycle of atmospheric convection –Availability of heat for tropical cyclone development

Colorado Fires June 2002 BE SUSTAINING: Real Communities Matter

BE NEW with Technology Hyperspectral Environmental Sounder –Spectral resolution (.5 cm-1) –Spatial resolution (1 – 5 km) –Temporal resolution (15 min) –Radiometric Accuracy (0.1K) * depict water vapor as never before by identifying small scale features of moisture vertically and horizontally in the atmosphere * track atmospheric motions much better by discriminating more levels of motion and assigning heights more accurately * characterize life cycle of clouds (cradle to grave) and distinguish between ice and water cloud (for aviation) * measure surface temperatures (land and sea) by accounting for emissivity effects (the improved SSTs would be useful for sea level altimetry applications) * distinguish atmospheric constituents with improved certainty; these include volcanic ash (useful for aircraft routing), ozone, and possibly methane plus others trace gases.

BE NEW: Impact of Horizontal Resolution on GOES-8 Brightness Temperature in the TC Eye Hurricane Mitch with 4, 8, 16, 32 km Resolution (GOES-8 Channel 4) Hurricane Analysis with the GOES-R Hyperspectral Environmental Sounder (HES) Coastal evacuations for hurricane landfalls strongly depend on forecasted intensity Intensity forecast skill is much less than track skill HES soundings in the hurricane eye and environment should improve intensity prediction Current GOES and MODIS imagery being analyzed for horizontal resolution requirements for eye soundings

BE NEW NAST-I during CAMEX-3 September 14, 1998 Tracking features in HES water vapor retrievals will enable multilevel winds with accurate heights as simulated here for GIFTS

BE BETTER Geo Atmospheric Motion Vectors International Cooperation provides global coverage for winds in tropics and mid-latitudes

Model GOES Data NCEP GlobalSounder Radiance, Imager Winds, Imager Radiances Eta ModelSounder Radiance, Sounder PW, Imager Winds, Data for LandDataAssimilationScheme, Sounder Clouds FSL’s RUCSounder TPW, Sounder Clouds (March 2002) GWINDEX rapid-scan winds CIMSS CRASSounder PW, Sounder Clouds Australia (LAPS)Imager Winds ECMWFImager Winds, Imager Radiances GFDL (experimental)Imager Winds NOGAPSImager Winds, Sounder Winds NAAPSImager Biomass Fire Product CSU RAMSImager Biomass Fire Product BE BETTER: GOES radiances & products have major role in NWP w/o GOES cloud assim w/ hrly GOES cloud assim cloud-top (verification)

Sounder G-8/12 Sounder G-10 Sounder G-9 Like-Sounder MSG Near Global Geo SOUNDING in 2003 BE FIRST

Paved roads and roads to be paved through the Avança Brasil program are shown as 100 km wide corridors centered on the roads (Panel A: locations A-G). The deforestation map is based on Landsat TM scenes (1991/1992) obtained from Michigan State University. (Nepstad, et al., 2001) Panel A: Flammable forests, deforested land, and roads in the Brazilian Amazon region. Panel B: Flammable forests and fires detected with the GOES-8 ABBA during BE SUSTAINING: The Planet Matters Study on Road Paving, Fire Regime Feedbacks, and the Future of the Amazon Forests Nepstad, et al., 2001: Road paving, fire regime feedbacks, and the future of the Amazon forests, Forest Ecology and Management, 154,

BEING NEW: Answering the questions for the new ideas What will sustain the habitability of the Earth? (NASA) Improved Weather Assessment and prediction Improved Climate assessment and Prediction Improved Resource/Hazards Management New and Improved Measurements and Models Overall Scientific Progress New Measurement Requirements Improved Quality of Life Improved Ocean Assessment and prediction What can we achieve towards goal with current and near-term technology? (NOAA)

BEING BETTER Preserving The Conservation Equation The Sources –Obtaining funds for new and improved products –Phasing and balancing funds between research and operations in the tech transition phase –Being creative, yet robust, and delivering on schedule The Sinks –Filtering the scientific options –Syntactical and computational demands –Finding and retaining the qualified people, life on the interface –Forming communities of support –Informing, educating, retaining the customers

BEING FIRST Managing the End-to-End Innovation

BEING SUSTAINING: Reach,Teach & Support the People Keeping the Ideas and Ideals Alive Hurricane Mitch Project in Costa Rica to celebrate the GOES8 receiving station and data server

GOES forward to 2012 Be Visionary! Reject the Tyranny of “OR”, use the Genius of “AND”, to optimize for high performing future generations by incorporating appropriate values from each R&D segment Create the Vision, Be First, Strategize for implementation of radical innovation in GOES program. Address new product lines and how to characterize success, Reqm'ts process, S&T roadmaps, effective management practices, AND Improve the present, Be Better, Manage resources wisely and track incremental progress. Address operational products and how to incorporate improvements, Performance metrics, efficiencies, AND Honor the Past, Be Sustaining, Remember who you are working for, and with. Customer service, training, and education AND Shape the Future, Be New, allow some stretch in the system for the new ideas. What science is being addressed? Contributing to the body of knowledge