Population Figures  6000 BC (Before Common Era): 5 million  1 CE: 250 million  1810: 1 billion  1960: 3 billion  2010: 6.8 billion (and counting)  2100: UN estimates 10 billion Currently 80% of the world’s people live in developing countries Currently 80% of the world’s people live in developing countries UN estimates that over 90% of future population growth will occur in these already overpopulated countries UN estimates that over 90% of future population growth will occur in these already overpopulated countries

Are there limits to growth?

Thomas Malthus, 19 th C Economist  Malthus argued that the world’s population growth needs to slow  Food production would not be able to keep up with the rapid growth of population  Everyone’s quality of life will be destroyed Megaslums –

Demography  The study and analysis of population. Includes: Population density Population density Population distribution Population distribution Dependency ratio Dependency ratio Population pyramids Population pyramids Demographic transition models Demographic transition models Population projections Population projections

Fertility Rate & Status of Women  Fertility Rate : Average number of live births each year for every woman of childbearing age For example: In Canada, the fertility rate is 1.57 children born/woman (2008 est.) So on average, most women have less than 2 children in their lifetime.

Fertility Rate & Status of Women  economic development and the fertility rate of countries are strongly connected decline in # of children a woman has frees her to improve her life & the lives of her children decline in # of children a woman has frees her to improve her life & the lives of her children better educated women have fewer children – tend to marry later and have fewer children, usually because they are better educated about contraception and better able to resist family pressure to have more children better educated women have fewer children – tend to marry later and have fewer children, usually because they are better educated about contraception and better able to resist family pressure to have more children

Fertility Rate & Status of Women  children of educated women also more likely to survive  know more about the importance of immunization, clean water, and good nutrition  study in Peru – showed infant mortality rate dropped for every year of schooling the mother had  key to improving status of women: education

Demographic Transition Model (DTM)  Describes population change over time or transitions, in birth rates and death rates in industrialized societies over the past 200 years  Shift Happens Video:

Demographic Transition Model – 5 stages  Stage 1 – Pre-Modern – Pre-Industrial Small population growth Small population growth Balance between birth and death rates Balance between birth and death rates Life expectancy LOW Life expectancy LOW

Demographic Transition Model – 5 stages Rise in population caused by decline in death rate (due to better health care, medicine, sanitation, technology, farming techniques, food supply, education, etc.) while birth rate remains high or rises Rise in population caused by decline in death rate (due to better health care, medicine, sanitation, technology, farming techniques, food supply, education, etc.) while birth rate remains high or rises Rapid increase in population numbers due to improved medical and scientific advances to sustain life Rapid increase in population numbers due to improved medical and scientific advances to sustain life Without a corresponding fall in birth rates this produces an imbalance, and the countries in this stage experience a large increase in population. Without a corresponding fall in birth rates this produces an imbalance, and the countries in this stage experience a large increase in population.  Stage 2 – Urbanizing / Industrializing – Developing Countries

Demographic Transition Model – 5 stages  Stage 3 – Mature / Industrializing Decline in birth rate results in more stable population Decline in birth rate results in more stable population Improved living standards Improved living standards birth rates fall due to: birth rates fall due to: access to contraception,access to contraception, increases in wages,increases in wages, urbanization,urbanization, a reduction in subsistence agriculture,a reduction in subsistence agriculture, an increase in the status and education of women,an increase in the status and education of women, a reduction in the value of children's work,a reduction in the value of children's work, an increase in parental investment in the education of children and other social changesan increase in parental investment in the education of children and other social changes Population growth begins to level off Population growth begins to level off

Demographic Transition Model – 5 stages  Stage 4 – Post Industrial Characterized by stability (linked to economic stability) Characterized by stability (linked to economic stability) Population age structure has become older due to low birth rates and death rates Population age structure has become older due to low birth rates and death rates Birth rates may drop to well below replacement level as has happened in countries like Germany, Italy, and Japan, leading to a shrinking population, a threat to many industries that rely on population growth. Birth rates may drop to well below replacement level as has happened in countries like Germany, Italy, and Japan, leading to a shrinking population, a threat to many industries that rely on population growth. The large group born during stage two ages & creates an economic burden on the shrinking working population. The large group born during stage two ages & creates an economic burden on the shrinking working population. Death rates may remain consistently low or increase slightly due to increases in lifestyle diseases due to low exercise levels and high obesity and an aging population in developed countries. Death rates may remain consistently low or increase slightly due to increases in lifestyle diseases due to low exercise levels and high obesity and an aging population in developed countries.

Demographic Transition Model – 5 stages  Stage 5 – De-industrializing Birth rates drop below death rates Birth rates drop below death rates Represent countries that have undergone the economic transition from manufacturing based industries into service and information based industries called deindustrialization Countries such as Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, England and most notably Japan, whose populations are now reproducing well below their replacement levels, are not producing enough children to replace their parent's generation.

Changes in Canada’s Population & the World’s Population  Canada’s birth rate and death rate have been dropping steadily in the past 30 years  Overall – population is getting older  Will have significant effects on Canada’s health care system and social services

Canada’s Population  Canada’s age structure – major factor in determining immigration policy  Currently – government strives for 1% of the population to be from immigration (about 200,000 immigrants /year)  However – currently only meeting 0.7%

WHY? THINK – PAIR-SHARE:  Why will Canada’s low growth rate have significant effects on Canada’s health care system and social services?  Why is Canada’s age structure a major factor in determining our immigration policy (the number of people we allow into the country per year)?

Demography What do populations tell us about what we need?

Population Distribution  Refers to the way people are distributed across the Earth’s surface  Has always been uneven - High concentrations in small areas Over 50% of the world’s population lives on only 5% of the land Over 50% of the world’s population lives on only 5% of the land 90% live on 20% of the land 90% live on 20% of the land Approximately 35% of world’s land not good for settlement Approximately 35% of world’s land not good for settlement

Population Distribution  Concentration explained by:  Many areas of the Earth’ land are inhospitable (difficult to live in) due to: Accessibility (i.e. to transportation and / or communication) Accessibility (i.e. to transportation and / or communication) Climate (i.e. too hot or too cold), not enough rainfall Climate (i.e. too hot or too cold), not enough rainfall The Landscape (i.e. too mountainous or desert) The Landscape (i.e. too mountainous or desert) The Vegetation (i.e. access to food and shelter) The Vegetation (i.e. access to food and shelter) The Resources available (i.e. access to clean water) The Resources available (i.e. access to clean water)

Population Distribution  In Canada – 80% of people live within 200km of our Southern border (the USA)  Most choose to live in areas where temperatures more moderate (i.e. not in North)  Majority of Canadians live in urban (city) centres

Population Density  Refers to the number of people in a given area  Population density for an entire country – called a crude density  Calculated by dividing a country’s population by its area

Population Density  75% of the world’s population lives in Africa and Asia Might seem overpopulated, but crude density shows that Africa is under-populated for its land area Might seem overpopulated, but crude density shows that Africa is under-populated for its land area Comprises 20.2% of the Earth’s landmass, yet only hold 12.7% of the Earth’s population Comprises 20.2% of the Earth’s landmass, yet only hold 12.7% of the Earth’s population  Europe – 3.3% landmass – holds 10% of Earth’s population

WHY? HOW?  Why is there uneven population distribution in the world and in Canada?  How could population density affect the physical and human environment?

Physical Factors Human Factors

Demographic Tools - Population Census  To help governments maintain accurate records of its people, most countries conduct a population census every 5-10 years  Data includes population count, birthplace, age, sex, first language, level of literacy, employment, income, etc.

WHY? HOW?  How and why is census data used to inform governments and their future plans (policies)?

Demographic Tools - Population Pyramids  Show population structures of countries  Provide insight into “problems” and give reasons for shifts in population trends  Most basic: age-sex structure – shown in population pyramids

Population Pyramid  Graph that shows the age and sex make up of a population  Shows percentage of people in each age group & percentage of males and females in each age group  Useful – helps predict future population trends  i.e. if few women of childbearing age, population may decrease due to low birth rate

Population Pyramids - Examples  There are 4 main types of Population Pyramids: 1. Expanding 2. Early Expanding 3. Contracting 4. Stable

Expanding

Early Expanding

Stable Japan

Contracting

Population Pyramids - Growth

Dependency Ratio / Load  Dependency ratio refers to the proportion of the population that is being supported by (or is DEPENDENT ON) the working-age-group ( years old)  Those who work experience a greater financial burden if their country has a high dependency ratio  Africa – 40% of the population – under 15 years old High birth rate High birth rate Expanding population Expanding population Stage 2 of DTM Stage 2 of DTM

HOW? WHY?  How can governments use population pyramids to help inform their future plans (policies)?  Why is the dependency ratio of a country particularly important for governments to know?

Overpopulation  Countries that have too many people for a given resource base and a given level of technological development  When exceeded its “carrying capacity” – level at which land can no longer support its people (i.e. low food supplies)  Result - Many people: live in poverty live in poverty Lack adequate food, water, and shelter Lack adequate food, water, and shelter Rely heavily on importing necessary goods Rely heavily on importing necessary goods

Population Growth – Potential Problems Housing Shortages Increase in Pollution Resource Depletion i.e. - water Energy shortages Technology – energy alternatives? Increase in Unemployment Destruction of Environment Food Shortages Stress on Infrastructure (i.e. roads, schools, hospitals)

Overpopulation - Responses  1970s – China had one of the highest population growth rates in the world 1 billion people – 1/5 world’s population at the time 1 billion people – 1/5 world’s population at the time Women averaged 6 children each Women averaged 6 children each

China’s One Child Policy  At this point - # of births reduced to 2.7 children per woman  Government offered rewards to families such as: Free medical care Free medical care Monthly wage bonuses Monthly wage bonuses Preferential housing Preferential housing Extra pension income Extra pension income

China’s One Child Policy  If family had a 2 nd child – suffered penalties such as Cancellation of benefits Cancellation of benefits Fines Fines Wage reductions Wage reductions

China’s One Child Policy  Problems: Greater in urban areas due to financial benefits Greater in urban areas due to financial benefits Rural areas – reply on children as labourers – Rural areas – reply on children as labourers – Value sons above daughters Value sons above daughters Some families resort to infanticide (murder) of female babies Some families resort to infanticide (murder) of female babies Others ignore policy in favour of their desired family structure Others ignore policy in favour of their desired family structure Current Status: average 1.8 Current Status: average 1.8 children per woman children per woman Still in effect today Still in effect today

WHY? HOW?  Should governments have the power to control the population rate through legal means?

Responses to Control Population Growth  Improve Technology Though application of science, including: Though application of science, including: ComputersComputers Cell phonesCell phones TVsTVs  Countries with higher levels of technology tend to have more developed economies

Responses to Population Growth  Family Planning / Controlling Population Growth Rate Reduced population reduces strain on resources (natural, economic, etc.) Reduced population reduces strain on resources (natural, economic, etc.) Leads to a general increase in standard of living Leads to a general increase in standard of living

Responses to Population Growth  Increase Resource Base / Lessen Disparity Use own resources to develop itself – could include: Use own resources to develop itself – could include: Work force Work force Natural resources Natural resources Technology Technology Financial institutions Financial institutions

Responses to Population Growth  Improve Literacy Rates Giving a population skills to read will improve access to higher paying jobs Giving a population skills to read will improve access to higher paying jobs This in turn will improve overall quality of life and standard of living This in turn will improve overall quality of life and standard of living

Responses to Population Growth  Increase Opportunities for Women Leads to improved economic development for all Leads to improved economic development for all