PACS 4500 Senior Seminar in Peace and Conflict Studies Section 001 Guy Burgess

Reading Reflections / D2L Grades  Level of Effort  Number of Points  Evidence of Having Done the Readings  Personal Reflections  Timeliness

State Department

Complex Problems

Inequality Problems at the Top – Assortative Mating – The Super Star Effect – Money Addiction/Boundless Greed – Others? Problems the Bottom – Single Parenting – Crimes/Incarceration Rates – Unemployment History – Low Educational Expectations – Scarcity-Afflicted Thinking – Others? Systemic Problems – Automation – Kludgeocracy – Reserve Army of the Unemployed – Zero-Some Mentality – Matthew’s Law – Stress Limits on Compassion – Under-Performing Schools – Lance Armstrong Effect – Others

All Big Problems Are Complex Problems

Wire These Problems So Intractable ?

Complex Adaptive Systems

General Systems Theory Levels of Systems Kenneth Boulding, “Skeleton of Science”  Framework  Clockwork  Throughput  Feedback  Cellular  Botanical  Zoological  Psychological  Social Complicated Systems Complex Systems

Evolutionary Roots As Toolmakers

Complicated Systems Mechanical Metaphor- based

Complicated Systems

Directed from Washington Model

Complicated “Chain of Command”

General Systems Theory Levels of Systems Kenneth Boulding, “Skeleton of Science”  Framework  Clockwork  Throughput  Feedback  Cellular  Botanical  Zoological  Psychological  Social Complicated Systems Complex Systems

Organic Systems and Metaphors

Mermeration

Non-Human Eco-Systems

Human Eco-Systems

Characteristics of Complex Systems  Multitudes of independent actors each seeking to advance their own self-interest based on their image of their environment and their problem-solving algorithm  Such systems are evolve and are not designed  There are no control points

Ecodynamics

NOT Environmental Correctness

Evolutionary Features  Creation processes  Propagation/reproduction processes  Selection processes  Everything evolves

Ecosystems Don’t Care  Individuals care – things that are bad for some individuals are undoubtedly better for others

Components of Creation  Energy  Materials  Information  Physical structure of matter  DNA -- biogenetics  Learned behavior -- noogenetics

Physical evolution

Biological evolution  Species  Behaviors  Structures

Biological Ecodynamics  Mutation  Selection  Niche  Relationships  Mutualism  Commensalism  Amensalism  Competition  Antagonism (Predation, Parasitism)  Neutralism

Darwin and Smith

Social Eco-dynamics  Things that evolve  Social roles  Human artifacts  Ideas  Behaviors  Everything

Social Eco-dynamics  Evolution of information (Quincy Wright)  Language  Writing  Printing  Digital information

Evolutionary Tracks

Competing Tracks Free world Power with democracy (small “d”) Invisible hand Compassionate Slave world Power over Tyranny Invisible fist Selfish

Evolutionary Actors Grassroots citizens

Selection/De-selection Determinants  Situational awareness  Analytical capabilities  Collaborative capabilities  Ability to avoid “traps” (attractors)  Tragedy of the Commons  Extreme destructive escalation  Unrealized opportunities for collaboration  Misunderstanding of the facts  Misunderstanding of others

Metaphors: Herding Cats? 7yqlTMvp8 Moving Food Bowls?

Conductor vs. Improvisation Orchestra Model Jazz Band Model

Strategic Corporal

The E-Bay vs. Unity of Effort

Specialization, Division of Labor Massively Parallel Peacebuilding

Micro, Meso, Macro Peacebuilding Fractals

Remediality, Incrementalism Herbert Simon Charles Lindblom

Complicated vs. Complex Systems I Complicated Engineering View System Consciously Designed by Humans Complete Plans of the System Are Available Unified Command-and- control Structure Deterministic Complex Medical View System Evolved Through Processes of Natural and Social Selection No Plans Exist—Only Observational Studies and Theories Decentralized, Multiple Independent Actors Adaptive / Chaotic

Complicated vs. Complex Systems II Complicated Workings of all system components are understood Complete repair possible Applies to simpler, designed systems Space shuttle Computers Complex Workings of only some system components understood Only incremental fixes/improvements Applies to complex, real-world systems Medicine, Ecosystem management, Internet, Economy, Social conflict

Complicated vs. Complex Systems III Complicated All malfunctions can be troubleshooted and repaired (given sufficient funds and political will) Complex Some problems (pathologies/diseases) can be diagnosed and treated, others cannot— treatment varies from: Complete Cure Symptomatic Relief No Successful Treatment -- Chronic Condition -- “Live with It” No Successful Treatment -- “Terminal” Focus on the most threatening pathologies

Learning Accelerator