Summary of Day 2: Frequently active volcanoes

General concept Steady state or pulses of magma flow deliver transport enough heat to offset cooling of the magma pathway by conduction and hydrothermal convection.

General characteristics Eruptions usually small (VEI <4) Unrest (precursor) stage short Low magnitude of VTs; DVTs may be absent Little or no deformation (no shallow chamber or magma-in = magma-out) Fast “dry-out”

Near-term forecasting Objective is to forecast dangerous change in behavior Abundant historic and geologic record shows range of activity Increase in CO2 emission (supply of deep undegassed magma) might be most promising; other anomalies: larger than normal VTs, lava effusion rate, etc Often, just not possible (Kilauea – plumbing change, Shiveluch- dome stability, Piton de la Fournaise- 20 minutes sea level to summit)

Communication Speed, so direct line, is important (i.e., the national park next door, not through officials 10,000 km away)

Why here and now? Recent eruptions (Eyjafjallajokal, Merapi, Grimsvotn, Cordon de Caulle/Puyehue) highlight volcano risk as an international problem, suggesting the need for a more internationally integrated approach. Interest for global experience-sharing among observatory scientists, of a sort that is difficult to accomplish at scientific meetings. Growing complexity and cost of modern volcano-monitoring and hazard communication, precluding a go-it-alone approach. Availability of an ideal venue, Erice, for an in-depth discussion.

Expected or potential benefits Improved performance of national volcano hazard programs. Greater recognition, at both the national and international levels, of the importance of volcano observatories. Reduction in development and implementation costs for new models, techniques, and instrumentation. For discussion: Rapid global dissemination of warnings that have international implications.

What comes next? Writing and publication of a document representing our consensus on best practices in short-term forecasting. This meeting is a “proof of concept experiment”. If successful, this can begin a series on best practices workshops in important areas such as monitoring instrumentation, risk analysis, hazard communication, eruption modeling, etc