WP 3. Present and future projections of climate effects (Leader: Gunnar Myhre, co-leader Ivar Isaksen, CICERO) Partners: CICERO, UCAM Task 3.1: Current.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Welcome MOCA - Methane Emissions from the Arctic OCean to the Atmosphere Workshop and project kick off October 2013 Arranged at NILU, Kjeller &

Advertisements

EMISSION FROM INTERNATIONAL SEA TRANSPORTATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT Øyvind Endresen, Eirik Sørgård and Gjermund Gravir Det Norske Veritas, Veritasveien.

The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information.

J. E. Williams, ACCRI, The Impact of ACARE reductions in Future Aircraft NOx Emissions on the Composition and Oxidizing Capacity of the Troposphere.

Michael Gauss, UiODe Bilt, 8-9 November 2005Quantify A3 workshop WP Future chemical composition changes from different modes of transport Set-up.

Discussion Space Research Centre. Urbanization and Industrialization: in 2008, more than half of humans live in cities UN Population Report 2007.

3.01 Investigate the water cycle including the processes of: Evaporation. Condensation. Precipitation. Run-off.

Chapter 16 – Global Warming Elements of this chapter to keep in mind analyze and understand anthropogenic global warming and potential policies on global.

Global Climate Change Sara Parr Sigrid Smith Kellogg Biological Station.

ARM Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program. 2 Improve the performance of general circulation models (GCMs) used for climate research and prediction.

Evidence for Milankovitch theory (wikipedia!). Px272 Lect 3: Forcing and feedback Balance of solar incoming, and earth emitted outgoing radiation Increments.

Some climate principles. Illumination of the earth by the sun: 1. More heat received at the equator than at the poles 2. Solid earth receives more.

Evidence for Milankovitch theory (wikipedia!). Px272 Lect 3: Forcing and feedback.

4.4 Climate Change.

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.

Overview of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and IPCC AR5 Activities Ronald J Stouffer Karl Taylor, Jerry Meehl and many others June 2009.

The Basics of Global Climate Change. What is Climate? Climate is multi-year pattern of temperature, wind and precipitation…weather is day-t0-day conditions,

The Science of Climate Change Why We Believe It and What Might Happen Dave Stainforth, University of Exeter Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.

How is the average temperature of Earth determined? Jot down a few ideas Sketch a map of the room. Show the locations of each water container. When directed,

Large potential future methane emissions from Arctic permafrost Ivar S.A. Isaksen CICERO.

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.

US CLIVAR Themes. Guided by a set of questions that will be addressed/assessed as a concluding theme action by US CLIVAR Concern a broad topical area.

Retrieval of snow physical parameters with consideration of underlying vegetation Teruo Aoki (Meteorological Research Institute), Masahiro Hori (JAXA/EORC)

Today’s Agenda Dig deeper into SEP’s for MS Reading debrief 8 th grade experience NGSS to instruction by grade levels Wrap-up and prep for summer.

Sensitivity of Methane Lifetime to Sulfate Geoengineering: Results from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) Giovanni Pitari V. Aquila,

WP4.1: Feedbacks and climate surprises ( IPSL, HC, LGGE, CNRM, UCL, NERSC) WP4.1 has two main objectives (a) to quantify the role of different feedbacks.

MANAGING Tough Times Climate Change and Agriculture.

Knut Espen Solberg 20 October 2009 WP210 Marine Transportation.

Land-Atmosphere Interaction : Vegetation Feedback P. Friedlingstein Stephen Guendert Arts & Sciences Climatic Studies 4/1/15.

NACLIM CT1/CT3 1 st CT workshop April 2013 Hamburg (DE) Johann Jungclaus.

Earth’s Energy Balance Complexity, climate change and human systems HCOL 185.

Future Climate Projections. Lewis Richardson ( ) In the 1920s, he proposed solving the weather prediction equations using numerical methods. Worked.

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Projected Future Changes Primary Source: IPCC WG-I Chapter 10 - Global.

Changes in methane at the Last Glacial Maximum To what extent have changes in methane sinks influenced its concentration and isotopic composition in the.

_________________ is the average meteorological conditions— temperature, precipitation, wind, etc.—that prevail in a region.

Greenhouse Effect and Greenhouse Gases. GREENHOUSE FFECTFFECT.

Methane in the atmosphere; direct and indirect climate effects Gunnar Myhre Cicero.

E.A. Mathez, 2009, Climate Change: The Science of Global Warming and Our Energy Future, Columbia University Press. Source: Solomon et al., 2007 Chapter.

Development of Climate Change Scenarios of Rainfall and Temperature over the Indian region Potential Impacts: Water Resources Water Resources Agriculture.

OVERVIEW OF ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES: Daniel J. Jacob Ozone and particulate matter (PM) with a global change perspective.

Modelling the climate system and climate change PRECIS Workshop Tanzania Meteorological Agency, 29 th June – 3 rd July 2015.

Willie Soon. Introduction 1. The relationship between atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations, temperature, and ice-sheet volume 2. Atmospheric CO2 radiative.

Aerosols and climate - a crash course Marianne T. Lund CICERO Nove Mesto 17/9-15.

Climate feedback on the marine carbon cycle in CarboOcean Earth System Models J. Segschneider 1, E. Maier-Reimer 1 L. Bopp 2, J. Orr 2 1 Max-Planck-Institute.

WP 5: Status and plans Hymn Brussels

Radiative forcing due to BC on snow and the direct aerosol effect of BC in the Arctic Gunnar Myhre CICERO – Center for International Climate and Environmental.

Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties Report from the NRC Committee on Radiative Forcing of Climate commissioned.

European Coastal-Shelf Sea Operational Monitoring and Forecasting System WP8 Model validation and inter-comparison.

A template for business people (you can use this PPT and modify it for your needs) Date, author, subject/ theme, etc. „Baltic Sea Region Challenges and.

OsloCTM2  3D global chemical transport model  Standard tropospheric chemistry/stratospheric chemistry or both. Gas phase chemistry + essential heteorogenous.

MOCA møte Oslo/Kjeller Stig B. Dalsøren Reproducing methane distribution over the last decades with Oslo CTM3.

Schematic framework of anthropogenic climate change drivers, impacts and responses to climate change, and their linkages (IPCC, 2007).

RAL, 2012, May 11 Research behaviour Martin Juckes, 11 May, 2012.

Increasing Levels of Atmospheric Methane Jordan Simpkins EAS 4803 Spring 2009.

WP11 Model performance assessment and initial fields for scenarios. Objectives and deliverables To determine, how well biogeochemical ocean general circulation.

Pre-anthropogenic C cycle and recent perturbations

MAGICC/SCENGEN Model for Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change/A Regional Climate SCENario GENerator.

Climate Forcings Dr Nicolas Bellouin (University of Reading)

JESSE POLAND Kansas State University

Chemistry-Climate Working Group Update

Ronald J Stouffer Karl Taylor, Jerry Meehl and many others

NCAR-GFDL Workshops on Model Development

WP2013 Challenge 6.1 Coping with climate change

WP4.1 : Exploiting CCI products in CMIP like experiments

Intercontinental Transport, Hemispheric Pollution,

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review

Exam 1 Review Topics Chapter 1

Apportioning climate change indicators to regional emitters

Global mean surface temperature increase as a function of cumulative total global CO2 emissions from various lines of evidence. Global mean surface temperature.

Presentation transcript:

WP 3. Present and future projections of climate effects (Leader: Gunnar Myhre, co-leader Ivar Isaksen, CICERO) Partners: CICERO, UCAM Task 3.1: Current influence of methane emissions from the seabed (CICERO) Task 3.2: Future impact of methane emissions from the seabed (CICERO) Task 3.3: Investigation of the strength of the bio geophysical cycle of methane emissions from the seabed (CICERO) Milestone 3.1: Impact on current atmospheric distribution of CH 4 emissions from the seabed (M24) Milestone 3.2: Future radiative forcing of direct and indirect effect CH 4 emissions from the seabed (M30) Milestone 3.3: Future temperature changes from effect CH 4 emissions from the seabed (M33) Milestone 3.4: Quantification of potential of the bio-geochemical cycle of CH 4 emissions (M33)

WP 3. Present and future projections of climate effects Task 3.1: Current influence of methane emissions from the seabed (CICERO) OsloCTM3 will be used simulate the influence on the atmospheric composition from the current emissions of CH 4 from the seabed as derived in WP1 (all tasks) and WP2, task 2.2. Modelling tools ready to be used and used for the period within the GAME project The challenge is the emissions to be included in the simulations

Days ppbv Simulations shown on Tuesday by Stig Dalsøren

Figure SPM.8 -Temperature -Sea ice -Wind

WP 3. Present and future projections of climate effects Task 3.2: Future impact of methane emissions from the seabed (CICERO) Methane emissions from the seabed as derived in WP2 task 2.3 will be used to calculate changes in the CH 4 distribution and indirect effect of CH 4 and its radiative forcing and temperature changes. Simulations will be performed for different time periods in particular 2050 and 2100 and CH 4 emission scenarios. Sensitivity simulations on the time duration of CH 4 emissions will be performed. Modelling tools ready to be used – OsloCTM2 as well as NCAR climate model Representativness for NCAR climate model in relation to other CMIP5 models Changes in winds from current to 2050 and 2100 in CMIP5

WP 3. Present and future projections of climate effects Task 3.3: Investigation of the strength of the bio geophysical cycle of methane emissions from the seabed (CICERO) The temperature changes in Task 3.2 will be used to derive whether the change is sufficient to change the CH 4 emissions from the seabed as investigated in WP2. The potential strength of the cycle will be investigated. This work depends very much on outcome from WP2 Same tools as Task 3.2