Response of the San Jacinto fault zone to static stress changes from the 1992 Landers earthquake M. Nic Bhloscaidh and J. McCloskey School of Environmental.

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Presentation transcript:

Response of the San Jacinto fault zone to static stress changes from the 1992 Landers earthquake M. Nic Bhloscaidh and J. McCloskey School of Environmental Sciences, University of Ulster C. J. Bean School of Geological Sciences, University College Dublin

Coulomb stresses and aftershocks Landers sequence Southern California, 1992

San Jacinto Fault Zone San Andreas Fault Zone M6.1 Joshua Tree 23 rd April 1992 M6.1 Joshua Tree 23 rd April 1992 M7.3 Landers 28 th June 1992 M7.3 Landers 28 th June 1992 M7.1 Hector Mine 16 th October 1999 M7.1 Hector Mine 16 th October km M6.5 Big Bear 28 th June 1992 M6.5 Big Bear 28 th June 1992 California Geological Survey The 1992 Landers earthquake sequence

Landers pre-seismicity R – aftershock rate r – pre-seismicity rate

Mallman and Zoback (2005) Changes in rate after Landers

The San Jacinto Fault Zone SAN BERNARDINO SAN JACINTO ANZA Sanders and Kanamori (1984)

Coulomb Stress Triggering

Correlation between rate changes and static stress changes San Bernardino San Jacinto Anza

The Coulomb Rate-State model Dieterich, 1994

Estimating the parameters of the CRS model

Conclusions We find a statistically significant positive correlation between the change in rate and the magnitude of the Coulomb stress change, with a correlation coefficient of 0.76 (5.6σ). This result is an important step in the validation of Coulomb stress based methods for quantitative seismicity forecasting. The correspondence between Coulomb stress changes and observed rate changes is sensitive to strong heterogeneity in aftershock locations and orientations associated with the presence of large-scale structure in aftershock study areas. Where the regional structure is mapped, incorporating it explicitly into Coulomb stress models may improve the performance of quantitative Coulomb stress based forecasts.