L E A M and use volution & Impact ssessment odel GIS 5935 Javier Leung

Old Delhi, India: A Case of Urban Sprawl  Six decades ago, New Delhi was created as the capital of British India.  The line of distinction between Old and New Delhi has begun to blur north, south, east and west Delhi.  Due to a high migration rate, Delhi has become one of the fastest growing cities in Asia. As a consequence, it faces key issues like environmental degradation, air and water pollution, traffic congestion and acute power and water shortages. Old Delhi GIS 5935

What is Urban Sprawl?  The Canadian Urban Institute provides one definition: “Urban sprawl refers to new development consuming land at a faster rate than the rate at which the population is growing.” Characteristics of Urban Sprawl Detached homes Low-density industrial parks Beyond urban boundaries (farmlands, wetlands). Expansive road networks GIS 5935

What is the Cost of Urban Sprawl?  A loss of natural areas and productive farmland to urban development instead of using land and re-using buildings within existing cities, towns and villages to meet growth needs.  Policy makers and planners often face tremendous difficulties in decision making with lack of vision into the future of urban growth.  It has become one of costliest problems in America.  The mechanism of urban growth and its interaction with social-economic and environmental systems are still poorly understood.  Policy makers and planners often face tremendous difficulties in decision making with lack of vision into the future of urban growth. GIS 5935

What is the Cost of Urban Sprawl? Some developers bulldoze and fill wetlands, cut down forests, and pave over farmland, prairies and grasslands. Wildlife Habitat and Green space Loss Roads, power lines, subdivisions and pipelines often cut through natural areas, thereby fragmenting wildlife habitat and altering wildlife movement patterns. Wildlife Habitat Fragmentation More automobile use, thereby adding more air pollutants. Poor Air Quality Rainwater and snowmelt are unable to soak into the ground and replenish the groundwater aquifers. Impacts on Water Quality and Quantity GIS 5935

Solution: Urban Modeling  Although GIS based tools provide useful analysis and have been widely used to assist urban planners, the static mapping concepts on which they are built are clearly insufficient to study the dynamics of urban growth (Hopkins 1999).  Computer-based urban system simulation models are being employed to forecast and evaluate land use change (Batty and Xie 1994, Birkin 1994, Landis 1994, Engelen et al. 1995, Wu and Webster 2000, Waddell 2002).  Spatial dynamic urban modeling is still in its infancy. Few such models are operational and used to assist urban planning practices.  Improve our fundamental understanding of the dynamics of land use transformation and the complex interactions between urban change and sustainable systems (Deal 2001). GIS 5935

Dynamic Model: The LEAM Approach  LEAM was originally developed as a research project by an interdisciplinary team of researchers at the University of Illinois with support from the National Science Foundation.  A Web browser and Macromedia Flash plug-in are required to view the interface.  Help others understand the relationships between human economic/cultural activities and biophysical cycles from a changing land use perspective. GIS 5935

Dynamic Model: The LEAM Approach Theories Ecological Environmental Geographic Industrial dynamics and model ecology High-performance computing Web-based interface Publicly accessible What-if scenarios Incorporates social, physical, and geographic data Transportable Cellular automata approach Visualization models Landscape Architecture Urban Planning, Geography Economics Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences National Center for Supercomputing Applications (NCSA) United States Army Corps of Engineers Private industry. GIS 5935

Impact Assessment Land Use Drivers The LEAM Approach: How Does It Work? Geography Open Space SocialTransportPopulationEconomicRandom Simulation Land Use Change WaterAirHabitatRainWasteEnergyEnvironTraffic Sustainable Indices Planning group Vacant lands, or developable lands, can be transformed to three categories of urban cells, residential, commercial/industrial and urban open space. Any cell within the study area is determined by the input of other driver sub-models such as Economics, transportation, utilities, neighboring land uses, etc 30 x 30 m resolution to simulate the socio-economic parcel-by- parcel decision making that influence urban growth patterns (Deal, 2001; Deal, 2003). GIS 5935

References Urban and Regional Information Systems Association. (n.d.). Land use evolution and impact assessment model: A Comprehensive Urban Planning Support System. Retrieved April, 28, 2008, from University of Illinois Department of Urban and Regional Planning & Department of Geographic. (n.d.). Land use evolution and impact assessment model. Retrieved April, 28, 2008, from GIS 5935