SELMA Fifth Project Management Committee Meeting WP-9 Scenario Testing UrbanSim Scenarios Eyal Ashbel

UrbanSim Scenarios “ The primary goal of SELMA is to design urban planning and management strategies to ensure maintenance of quality of life in European metropolitan areas. …In order to design and evaluate planning strategies we will develop a land simulation model ….” The simulation model should become a “planning-evaluation simulation tool for urban growth management attuned to the need of end users”.

UrbanSim Scenarios UrbanSim should be used as an instrument that aids the decision makers and provides a context for planning and programming, lowering the level of uncertainty and raising the level of knowledge in relation to the consequences of actions which have been taken, or are going to be taken.

UrbanSim Scenarios According to the designers of the UrbanSim Model: “It (UrbanSim) is a valuable tool for improving the level of understanding of how a metropolitan region is developing and how various combinations of land use and transportation policies and investments are likely to shape these trends."

UrbanSim Scenarios Three general groups of scenarios: –Policy Scenarios. –Demographic & Socio-Economic Scenarios. –Event Scenarios. UrbanSim is open code and is still being developed as we speak.

UrbanSim Scenarios Policy Scenarios –Urban Growth Boundaries. –Height Restrictions –Land Use Mixture –Green Belts

UrbanSim Scenarios Demographic &Socio-Economic Scenarios –Job forecasts by sector –House Hold forecasts by characteristics. –Relocation Rate Change (Jobs/House Holds) –Area per worker per Land Use.

UrbanSim Scenarios Event Scenarios –New Residential Neighborhouds. –New Commercial Areas. –New Industrial Area –Additional Work force per sector –New Roads

UrbanSim Scenarios UrbanSim has high connectivity with GIS allowing for in depth analysis and high level visualization. UrbanSim is Open Coded. UrbanSim can aid the decision makers by reducing the level of uncertainty.

Thank You