The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI How certain can we be about climate change? How do we manage the unavoidable? How do we avoid the unmanageable? Finding policy alliances for climate change Climate change: the latest evidence Professor Mike Hulme Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research LCVP Annual Conference, 15 June 2006, London

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI can we be certain about climate change?

UK warming

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI Physical evidence … the Vernagt Glacier, Austria

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI Extreme central European summer temperature … 2003 Source: Luterbacher et al. 2004

CO 2 concentrations

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI Risk of overshooting 2ºC target Source: den Elzen and Meinshausen

pH reduced by 0.3 to 0.4 by 2100 under IS92a (i.e., a 100% to 150% increase in [H + ]) Orr et al (Nature) Changes in ocean pH

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI how do we manage the unavoidable? … building a resilient society

Tools for adaptation planning UK national climate scenarios Risk assessment framework UK climate change programme

Heatwave 2003 – health care Record high temperatures (>37°C) in southeast England (and west-central Europe) in early August ,000 premature deaths across west-central Europe, mostly the elderly This led to UK National Health Service issuing a “Heatwave Plan for England” to minimise future adverse effects on human health

Public investment

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI how do we avoid the unmanageable?... building a low carbon economy

Decoupling growth, consumption and emissions Source: UK Climate Change Programme

Trade, tax or technology?

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI Negotiating beyond 2012 Source: David Victor

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI finding policy alliances for climate change

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI policy alliances energy security environmental protection energy efficiency ‘making poverty history’