CENSAM Annual Workshop, 29 June 2015 Regional Climate Analyses over Southeast Asia Dr. Sri Raghavan Mr.Liu Jiandong, Dr.Nguyen Ngoc Son, Dr.Vu Minh Tue,

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CENSAM Annual Workshop, 29 June 2015 Regional Climate Analyses over Southeast Asia Dr. Sri Raghavan Mr.Liu Jiandong, Dr.Nguyen Ngoc Son, Dr.Vu Minh Tue, Dr.Liong Shie-Yui Dr.Chien Wang CENSAM, SMART

Mean Annual Rainfall (mm/day) TRMM CRU UDEL APHRODITE GPCC CPC

Precipitation Annual Cycle HANOI BANGKOK KUALA LUMPUR MANILA PHNOM PENHSINGAPORE VIENTIENNEYANGON

CMIP5 Global Climate Models NoGCMAtmospheric Resolution Country 1BCC CSM ° × 2.8°China 2NCAR CCSM4 0.9° × 1.3°USA 3CNRM CM5 1.4° × 1.4°France 4CSIRO MK ° × 1.9°Australia 5UKMO HadGEM2 1.3° × 1.9°UK 6IPSL CM5A 1.9° × 3.8°France 7JAMSTEC MIROC5 1.4° × 1.4°Japan 8MPI ESM-MR 1.9° × 1.9°Germany 9MRI CGCM3 0.6° × 0.6°Japan 10NCAR CESM CAM5 0.9° × 1.3°USA

CNRM CSIRO MK 3.6 IPSL CM5 MRI-CGCM3 CRU Mean Annual Rainfall (mm/day) CCSM4 CNRM CM5 MRI CGCM3 ENSEMBLE CRU

Mean Annual Rainfall (mm/day) - Hovmoller TRMMBCC CSM CNRM CM5 HadGEM2 MPI ESM MR MRI CGCM3

Mean Annual Cycles (mm/day) – SEAsian Cities BANGKOK HANOI YANGON KUALA LUMPUR MANILA VIENTIENNE

Seasonal average rainfall (land only), , mm/day, Southeast Asia (95E to 130E; 10S to 25N)

Seasonal average rainfall (land only), , mm/day, Southeast Asia (95E to 130E; 10S to 12N)

Interann Var (mm/day) TRMM CRU MRI CGCM3 IPSL CM5 BCC CSM CNRM CM5

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FINAL WORDS… Objective is not to rank the best or worst Despite higher resolutions, the CMIP5 GCMs’ ability to reproduce regional representation of rainfall is rather poor Ensemble of GCMs – not bad, but depends on purpose of application EOFs suggest that the dominant features yet need to be improved Next stage will analyze synoptic circulation features A feedback to the GCM community on such regional representation may not be inappropriate