Topics 1.Are all regions of Melbourne “booming”? 2.Growth by gender 3.Origin-destination flows 4.Is census “representative”? We are a community, not an economy!

Objective 1.Develop an Australian-specific active transport appraisal framework. 2.Be practical. 3.Be consistent with standard transport appraisal. 4.Be cognisant of the limitations.

Existing Guidelines

Contributions Spreadsheet tool Explicit recognition of uncertainty Australian-specific unit values Diversion rates Injury risk submodel

Diversion rates: ‘rules of thumb TO... CyclistPedestrian FROM...Inner cityOther areasInner cityOther areas Car10%15%5%10% Public transport20%0%15%0% Reassign65%55%70%50% Induced5%30%10%40% Very little mode shift from car No shift from PT outside inner city area Most demand is reassigned More induced demand in outer urban and rural areas

Rules of thumb Users LocationCyclistsPedestrians Inner urban$15m$7m Other areas$20m$12m Inner urban benefits are lower because more demand is reassigned, as opposed to more induced demand in other areas Pedestrians produce greater benefits because of higher health benefits per km and more induced travel than cycling, but travel much shorter distances Approximate discounted benefits over 30 years per 1,000 users per day:

The Magic Box

Example 1: Inner City Bridge Assume active transport capital cost is 5% of total project cost (5% x $338m = $16.9m) Average daily demand is 1,100 cyclists and 500 pedestrians Average cycling trip is 10 km, walking is 3.75 km (i.e km/h) Bridge reduces travel distance by 300 m

Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) Best estimate: % confidence interval: 0.6 – % chance that BCR < 1.0

Discounted benefits Health benefits are very significant Vehicle-related benefits are small Travel time benefits due to shorter distance

Discounted benefits: Breakdown Shorter distance Less travel on-road Active transport less safe Shorter distance

Example 2: Parkiteer

Benefit-Cost Ratio Summary

Discounted Benefits: Summary

Conclusion ATC / Austroads guidelines update Public realm valuation Further research –Health values –Injury risk